Friendlier China-Philippines relationship could undercut potential U.S. defense of Taiwan

SEOUL, South Korea — The U.S.-Israel war with Iran is generating a surprise side effect in the Indo-Pacific: Philippine expressions of amity toward China.

Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said in a March 24 Bloomberg interview that his nation was considering joint energy prospecting with China in the South China Sea, something the two capitals discussed in 2023 but did not pursue because, Mr. Marcos said, “territorial disputes are getting in the way.”

While the Pentagon is focused on Iran, a thaw in Beijing-Manila relations would represent blowback: Any weakening of support for Washington in Manila could undercut a potential U.S. defense of Taiwan.

The Philippines is a key node in the strategic First Island Chain, a bulwark against Chinese naval maneuver at a time when even top-tier navies are being confounded by onshore weaponry.

Mr. Marcos’ outreach is remarkable given that the two countries have been locked in a conflict since 2012 over control of maritime terrain — fishing sites, reefs and islets — just west of the Philippines in the South China Sea.

There, Chinese fishing fleets, Coast Guards cutters and warships are conducting a campaign of harassment and intimidation against Philippine vessels and bases. Tactics include water-cannoning, ramming and boarding.

“Maybe this provides impetus for both sides to come to an agreement,” Mr. Marcos said, referring to the ongoing Mideast chaos. “That’s something we are exploring. Everything that might be of help, we are certainly pursuing.”

Given the ongoing clashes in the South China Sea, that statement is a surprise.

“We’ve always tried to differentiate territorial disputes from our trade arrangements,” he said.

With the Strait of Hormuz, a critical international chokepoint for energy exports from the Gulf, closed by Iran, the Philippines’ current energy outlook is dire.

On March 20, Manila announced that the country was down to 45 days’ supply of energy. On March 24, the same day that Mr. Marcos spoke out, Manila declared a “national energy emergency.”

It has reportedly asked the U.S. to grant permission for it to buy sanctioned oil.

Even though his hand may be forced by the situation, Mr. Marcos’ outreach to China — which, though also dependent on Gulf oil, has built up massive state reserves — looks like a U-turn.

Having taken office in 2022, he reversed the policies of his pro-China predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, who is facing charges of crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court in The Hague for his often violent anti-drugs campaign while in office.

Mr. Marcos reinforced Manila’s relations with Washington to buttress his maritime resistance to China. During his term, the Philippines expanded the number of bases that U.S. troops rotate into from five to nine, including in the northernmost Batanes Islands.

In times of war, those islands are perfectly situated to deny the Bashi Channel to Chinese vessels. The channel is one of several key straits that Chinese naval assets would need to transit to surround and-or blockade Taiwan.

Regional strategists were concerned about Mr. Marcos’ possible change of heart.

“Joint exploration with China in the West Philippine Sea would reward bad behavior and set a dangerous precedent,” the Australia-based Lowy Institute think tank warned.

Philippine political figures also criticized Mr. Marcos. 

Sen. Joseph Victor Ejercito asked local media, “How can you enter into an agreement of a joint exploration with someone who is trying to disrespect your sovereignty, undermine your sovereignty and trying to annex your territory?”

Retired Supreme Court Associate Justice Antonio Carpio warned that joint oil and gas explorations could be problematic.

“Joint development is a trap because joint development means … China owns the gas, the oil, all the natural resources,” he said. “China has the sovereign rights. That’s from the point of view of China. So why will we accept that?”

According to GMA News Online, Mr Carpio made his comments while being shown, by Philippine Coast Guard members, Chinese-built structures on Pangibanan Reef, inside the Philippines’ 200-mile-wide exclusive economic zone.

The latest Chinese-Philippine maritime collision took place on March 27.

The rise of drones and the increasing precision of missiles have upgraded the importance of strategic littoral locations, where area-denial weaponry can be mounted.

The Philippines has not been used as a firing point for those weapons: Its maritime conflict with China, which does not involve the United States, remains nonkinetic.

Elsewhere, even top-tier, blue-water navies have been humbled by enemies’ deployment of economical onshore systems.

Ukraine has used land artillery, missiles and drones — aerial, surface and sub-surface — to decimate Russia’s Black Sea fleet, sinking its flagship, forcing it away from its coastline and likely eliminating amphibious operations.

Iran similarly has deployed land-based weapons systems to close the narrow Strait of Hormuz, hitting more than 20 merchant ships. As a result, only Iranian oil is being shipped through the 21-mile-wide choke point.

President Trump has urged NATO nations, as well as China, Japan and South Korea, to send warships to convoy shipping through the Strait, and-or to force it open.

None has agreed.

Mr. Trump has not ordered U.S. Navy vessels to conduct such high-risk missions, even though the strait was open to international shipping before the U.S. and Israel started the conflict on Feb. 28.

Other U.S. allies were not consulted. When asked about that by a Japanese reporter during Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s visit to Washington last month, Mr. Trump said he had wanted to retain the element of surprise — citing the December 1941 Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor as an example.