OPINION:
North Korea is building more nuclear weapons and more sophisticated ballistic missiles to target the region and the U.S. while ensuring close alignment with China and Russia.
Basically, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has given up on the U.S., even if the U.S. relents and accepts North Korea as a nuclear weapons state.
Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said on a recent visit to South Korea that North Korea is boosting its nuclear weapons capability. The country, he said, has made “very serious” advances in its nuclear program. He noted that satellite images of Pyongyang’s new uranium enrichment facility at the Yongbyon nuclear complex were similar to those of the uranium enrichment facility in Kangson.
North Korea’s highly enriched uranium program goes back to 2000, when the intelligence community assessed, despite press skepticism, that North Korea had a clandestine program.
To this day, North Korea denies having a highly enriched uranium program for nuclear weapons. In the failed 2019 Hanoi summit with President Trump, Mr. Kim refused to include his highly enriched uranium sites in any agreement with the U.S.
North Korea reportedly has 50 to 60 nuclear weapons and enough fissile material, including highly enriched uranium and plutonium, to increase that number to 100 within the next few years.
Others and I who follow North Korea believe North Korea can miniaturize and mate these nuclear weapons to the tip of ballistic missiles.
Impressive progress has been made with North Korea’s ballistic missile programs. The nation recently displayed the Hwasong-20, a large, solid-fuel, mobile, multiwarhead intercontinental ballistic missile with a range of 9,300 miles. It’s the latest in an arsenal of more than 400 ballistic missiles, from short- to long-range ICBMs designed for nuclear and conventional warheads.
North Korea’s nuclear doctrine has evolved from no first use to “automatic” preemptive use of nuclear weapons if its leadership and command systems are under imminent (or perceived-to-be-imminent) attack.
Pyongyang made sure the world saw Mr. Kim visiting the 5,000-ton Choe Hyon-class destroyer. North Korea plans to exponentially increase its number of nuclear-capable destroyers to 12 by 2030, all armed with cruise and tactical ballistic missiles.
It’s not only North Korea’s rush to acquire more nuclear weapons and missiles to potentially target countries in its region and the U.S., or its new, preemptive-use doctrine that should be of concern. It is also North Korea’s allied relationship with China and Russia that should worry us.
Historically, North Korea has relied on China for its economic survival. Before 1991, it relied on Russia for assistance with its nuclear and missile programs. Yet things have changed.
North Korea is now closer to China than at any other time since Mr. Kim took over in 2011. Indeed, the September 2025 visit to Beijing to stand with China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin marked the beginning of a closer relationship between North Korea and China.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s recent visit to North Korea to meet with Mr. Kim and the attention it received from the North Korean press were indicative of that improved relationship.
In the past few years, North Korea’s relationship with Russia has progressed rapidly, with a mutual defense treaty and North Korea’s assistance to Russia in its war with Ukraine. North Korea also likely has nuclear, missile and satellite assistance from Russia.
North Korea now has two permanent members of the United Nations Security Council who will ensure that no further sanctions are imposed for its continued violations of Security Council resolutions.
So, in the final analysis, Pyongyang probably has concluded that it doesn’t need a normal relationship with the U.S. It has China and Russia, which provide economic and military support and apparently accept the country’s nuclear status.
Mr. Kim’s global credibility (important to him) will be derived from a close alliance with China and Russia, along with leadership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and an appeal to the “global south.”
Mr. Kim appears to be taking advantage of the U.S. war with Iran and tension with NATO to expand his nuclear arsenal while strengthening his relationship with China and Russia.
Indeed, if the U.S. relents, which North Korea believes is inevitable, and eventually accepts North Korea as a nuclear weapons state, then Pyongyang will pocket the win and use it to get more from its allies China and Russia.
• The author is a former associate director of national intelligence. All statements of fact, opinion or analysis expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official positions or views of the U.S. government. Nothing in the contents should be construed as asserting or implying U.S. government authentication of information or endorsement of the author’s views.
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