OPINION:
The two-week ceasefire in the Iran war is the culmination of a high-stakes, coercive bargaining phase by the Trump administration and a pragmatic pivot by Iranian leadership.
Although the strategy has, for now, yielded a temporary truce, the risks ahead remain wide if interpretations stay vague and outside interference continues unopposed.
President Trump has indicated that the coercive diplomatic phase is still in force, with U.S. military forces and assets in place until a full agreement is reached and complied with. He is maintaining pressure and a strategic exit for Tehran.
At the same time, Mr. Trump may give some leeway for Iran’s reconstruction by asking regional allies to step up their support, allowing Washington to preserve pressure while enabling limited stabilization.
The two-week window will be the most consequential. It will determine whether the temporary truce can be converted into a more sustainable peace arrangement or whether the conflict will continue.
A critical point of contention within the 10-point plan is the status of Iran’s nuclear program.
Tehran may be planning for a post-Trump policy change in Washington that could produce more room for maneuver, but it remains tied to current realities: securing the best bargain now, preserving domestic legitimacy and projecting strength while seeking reconstruction support and economic breathing space.
Some risks remain, including sabotage by those out to derail the path to peace, the Lebanon “gap” and the uranium ultimatum. This ceasefire is a step toward a lasting cessation of hostility, but it continues to rest on profound distrust and structural incompatibility.
Talks in Islamabad will be the true test of whether this opening can become lasting peace.
Peace must be given a real chance, alongside a clean exit game for all sides.
COLLINS CHONG YEW KEAT
Foreign Affairs, security and strategy analyst, Universiti Malaya
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
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