OPINION:
Much of the world, including a majority of Americans, was not thrilled when President Trump launched strikes against Iran on Feb. 28. Another Middle Eastern war? There was no appetite for it. No one likes Iran, of course, but not liking someone is a far cry from launching a full-scale assault by the most powerful military on the planet.
The president and the leadership in his administration laid out three primary objectives they hoped to achieve in the assault: 1.) A nuclear-free Iran; 2.) A severely degraded ballistic missile program for Iran; and 3.) Iran’s abandonment of its proxy network in the region, which has destabilized the Middle East for decades.
From the minute the first American missile was launched, it became imperative that Mr. Trump have a clear and decisive victory, demonstrating to the American public that the risk and cost were worthwhile. Democrats immediately lined up to accuse him of war crimes. Multiple Middle Eastern countries suffered attacks at the hands of a wild Iran anxious to inflict pain on anyone and everyone, particularly considering they couldn’t effectively hit America directly.
Iran then threw in the wild card. They blocked the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway through which about 20% of the world’s oil flows via cargo ship every day, or at least it did until Iran decided to hold the world hostage. As it continued to take a military beating, Iran did the unthinkable. Rather than surrender and reopen the strait, Iran officials doubled down and demanded that in order to even consider negotiations for a ceasefire, America would have to recognize Iran’s permanent authority over the Strait of Hormuz. From this point forward, Iran declared, it would decide who could pass through, and anyone who did would be required to pay a significant toll.
From the moment this declaration was made by the Islamic republic, it was generally considered absurd. Other Gulf countries would surely not accept Iran’s control of the vital passage. The Americans couldn’t possibly endorse it. If accepted, it would set a precedent that all straits worldwide would now be subject to whimsical tolls by local countries.
Somehow, Iran’s Hormuz idea remained in all discussions and stayed on the list of demands throughout the ragged back and forth between the nations. Ultimately, it was on Iran’s list of 10 items that was passed through Pakistan to Mr. Trump’s team, the list of things to be discussed in the negotiations. Mr. Trump said he was open to talk about all the items, including this one. Does that sound crazy?
Calling Mr. Trump crazy is nothing new. The media has been doing it since he came down the escalator in 2015. His political enemies proclaim his mental infirmity on a daily basis. Is Trump crazy? Maybe he is crazy like a fox.
It appears as though there will be no way to verify what happened to the enriched nuclear materials Iran claimed to have and America claimed to have decimated, so it will be difficult for Mr. Trump to claim that as a victory. Iran’s ballistic missile supply has undoubtedly been compromised, but can surely be replenished, again making it tough to justify the war on the temporary accomplishment. What if, however, the crazy fox had a different, creative way to show that the entire conflagration had been worthwhile?
Mr. Trump casually floated the idea that perhaps the United States could partner with Iran on managing the Strait of Hormuz. No one really paid much attention, with so many moving parts all whizzing around at once. But what if he was serious? What if the world-famous businessman envisions the U.S. and Iran managing Hormuz together, charging the world to pass and splitting the fees?
Some estimates put the haul for each cargo ship north of $2 million. Before Feb. 28, there were more than 190 ships a day passing through the strait. Some quick math tells us that we could collect almost $2.7 billion a week, every week, in perpetuity. Split two ways between Iran and the U.S., that’s a lot of money.
The Gulf countries would never accept the idea, or would they? If it meant long-lasting peace and extended stability in the region brought about by permanent cooperation between America and Iran, they might perceive it as a price worth paying.
Imagine Iran claiming victory, having withstood the might of America’s military and ending up with a huge permanent payday via Hormuz tolls. Mr. Trump could simultaneously claim victory, having exhibited the amazing power of his armed forces, having crafted a peaceful coexistence with Iran and having generated an enormous and eternal payday for the United States.
If you were crafting a Hollywood story and needed to tie up all the loose ends with a happily-ever-after for all involved, this would be it. Too fantastical? Too crazy? Maybe Mr. Trump really is that crazy. Crazy like a fox.
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