Virginia redistricting referendum becomes a fight to the finish

VIRGINIA BEACH, Va. — Virginia Democrats’ redistricting referendum is not turning out to be the slam dunk the party expected.

Despite Democrats spending tens of millions of dollars on the referendum to allow mid-decade redistricting, early voting numbers show ballots cast in Republican districts are far outpacing those in Democratic districts.

The closer-than-expected contest has Democratic Party officials panicking and calling on Gov. Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat, to leave the Executive Mansion and do more to motivate the party faithful to turn out.

Republicans said the early numbers show they have a chance to block the redistricting, which, if approved by voters, would flip four Republican-held U.S. House seats to the Democrats.

“Right now, the five congressional districts represented by Republicans have higher early voting numbers than the six congressional districts represented by Democrats, and that includes right here in Virginia Beach and Norfolk and Delmarva,” Republican activist Scott Presler told a crowd of about 90 people at a rally at Mom’s Kitchen in Virginia Beach. “The fact that a lot of y’all in the middle have not voted yet shows me there’s a lot of votes on the table, and that shows me that this is winnable.”

In-person voting takes place April 21.

Virginians will decide whether the Democratic-run legislature can override the bipartisan Virginia Redistricting Commission and create a gerrymandered map that would leave the state’s Republicans with just one representative in the House.

Congressional lines are typically drawn every decade, using data from the coinciding U.S. census, which counts the population every 10 years.

Virginia is among 10 states seeking an atypical, mid-decade redrawing of the congressional districts in a battle between red and blue states to gain an advantage in the November midterm elections.

In Virginia, the midyear redistricting battle is an abrupt about-face from the recent creation of the bipartisan Virginia Redistricting Commission. In an overwhelming bipartisan vote in 2019, the General Assembly moved to amend the state Constitution to give the map-making job to a commission. Virginia voters approved the change in November 2020.

Previously, the legislature drew the new district maps and approved them through the normal legislative process.

The ballot question seeks to allow the General Assembly to temporarily redraw new congressional districts “to restore fairness in the upcoming elections.” The amendment would return Virginia to the standard redistricting process every decade after the 2030 census.

Democrats are calling it an “emergency” action.

The multistate redistricting scramble was triggered after the Republican-led Texas Legislature approved a new congressional district map last year over Democrats’ objections. The redrawn districts are designed to give Republicans five additional seats in the midterm elections.

Blue states responded to the Texas gerrymander with their own partisan maps.

Virginia’s Democratic-led General Assembly approved congressional lines aimed at countering Texas’ congressional map. The new map would ensure Virginia elects 10 Democrats and just one Republican to the U.S. House.

The plan, which would wipe out four of the five Virginia congressional districts now held by Republicans, can be enacted only if voters approve a constitutional amendment in the special election this month.

Maryland, South Carolina and Washington have introduced similar legislation authorizing new maps. California, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Utah have implemented a mid-decade reconfiguration of congressional districts.

Florida could be next. The Republican-dominated state Legislature returns April 20 for a special redistricting session that could give Republicans up to an additional five seats in Congress.

Democrats are desperate for the Virginia referendum to succeed as they seek to regain control of the House. They have outspent the Republicans nearly 4-to-1.

Dennis Free, chairman of the Virginia Republican Party’s 2nd Congressional District Committee, told The Washington Times that the party is focused on getting out its voters “the old-fashioned way,” by calling people and mailing out postcards.

Republicans are also advertising on YouTube and other social media platforms, he said, while acknowledging that Democrats are spending $38 million compared with Republicans’ $10 million.

“We’re not going to match them dollar for dollar, but we don’t need to. We need to make sure our message gets out. And I think it’s getting out and resonating,” he said.

Virginia Beach resident Tori Lane said Republican turnout will increase if voters in Republican districts are made aware of the looming loss of Republican representation in Congress.

“Once people realize how unfair the yes vote would end up being, more of them will show up,” Ms. Lane said.