OPINION:
Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour provided an undeniable economic boon to host cities, but her recent engagement to NFL star Travis Kelce hints at an influence with far more staying power. Household formation, more than celebrity stimulus, quietly drives growth, investment and intergenerational wealth and deserves a place at the center of economic policy.
The Eras Tour became the highest-grossing tour of all time, with an estimated windfall of $2.2 billion. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve noted a hotel revenue surge in host cities tied directly to Ms. Swift’s shows. Chicago hotels filled more rooms than ever in the city’s history. In Sweden, official inflation numbers ticked upward for the first time in more than a year as hotel rates spiked during her three-night residency.
National estimates peg U.S. fan spending on the tour at nearly $5 billion, with per-attendee outlays averaging $1,300. Vancouver’s tourism agency predicts Ms. Swift’s final three Canadian shows boosted the local economy by $157 million.
Ms. Swift has accomplished what few central bankers can: a visible, measurable stimulus in economies around the world. However, this economic jolt was temporary. Local businesses thrived for a week; inflation nudged upward for a month. Once the tour buses left town, the underlying structural challenges remained. Cities cannot build sustainable growth on pop concerts alone.
Hopefully, Ms. Swift’s engagement to Mr. Kelce will spark a trend far greater than increased hotel tax receipts. The cultural force with the most durable macroeconomic consequences isn’t stadium tours; it’s household formation. Marriage, consistently and powerfully, drives incomes, financial security and increased fertility rates.
The economics are clear. Married households have far higher net worth than singles. Federal Reserve data shows married households hold several times the median net worth of unmarried households. Fed economists find a 10% to 20% earnings premium for married men, even after adjusting for age and education. From 1970 to 2007, married adults’ median adjusted household incomes grew more quickly than those of their unmarried peers. Stable marriages accumulate “marriage capital,” shared planning, joint savings and complementary skills that amplify economic and financial prosperity.
The differences between married couples and singles compound over time. On average, stably married men and women have more than $640,000 in assets when approaching retirement, and remarried couples average more than $450,000. By contrast, divorced or never-married Americans average just $167,000.
Household formation ripples outward across the economy. According to 2024 data from The Wedding Report, weddings represent a $63 billion industry. Local florists, photographers, caterers, jewelers and hotels benefit when couples tie the knot.
The longer-term effects are even larger. Married couples are more likely to buy homes, 50% of first-time buyers are married, and homeownership is the single biggest vehicle for wealth accumulation in the U.S. Married couples, on average, pay lower tax rates, have lower insurance premiums and qualify for spousal Social Security benefits, effectively enlarging the social safety net.
Marriage also shapes demographics. Married people tend to have more children than their unmarried peers, which matters in an era of declining fertility. The U.S. birth rate has fallen to historic lows, raising concerns about a shrinking labor force and strained entitlement programs. Household formation counteracts these trends by supporting family growth and stabilizing the population’s age structure.
The benefits of marriage extend beyond bank accounts. Longitudinal surveys of more than 2.5 million Americans from 2009 to 2023 consistently show married people reporting higher life satisfaction, 12% to 24% higher than unmarried adults, depending on the year. Happiness, stability and intergenerational transfer of values all contribute to a stronger social fabric.
This is why the Swift-Kelce engagement is more than celebrity gossip. Ms. Swift has proved her ability to shift consumer behavior, whether spiking voter registration after a single Instagram post before the 2024 presidential election or nudging a nation’s inflation rate with a concert tour. If even a fraction of her fans take inspiration from her engagement and consider household formation sooner, the macroeconomic effects would dwarf the “Swift-flation” headlines.
However, policymakers cannot count on pop stars to rescue birth rates or net worth statistics; they must recognize that household formation deserves the same attention as industrial policy or tax reform. Economists spend enormous amounts of energy modeling stimulus checks and interest rate cuts, but the strongest driver of wealth creation is often invisible to fiscal multipliers: the decision of two people to combine their lives.
Ms. Swift has already shown that culture can move markets. Her marriage may prove that culture can help stabilize them. Her concerts gave us “Swiftonomics.” Her engagement could give us something far more enduring: a reminder that a “Love Story” — marriage and household formation — remains one of the most powerful forces in economics.
• Julia R. Cartwright, PhD., is a senior research fellow at the American Institute for Economic Research and a professor of economics and game theory.
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