OPINION:
As we approach the fifth anniversary of the Abraham Accords, the Middle East looks different. In 2020, the world watched as four Arab nations courageously normalized relations with Israel in the first peace agreement since the one in 1994 with Jordan. The U.S.-brokered detente under President Trump ended decades of division.
The past five years have brought change with positive and complex developments, including flourishing trade, deepening security ties and continued tensions. Yet despite the accords’ success, no additional Arab countries have joined since, which is worrying.
The first three years brought renewed hope for coexistence, cooperation and peace. During this period, more than 1 million Israeli tourists visited the United Arab Emirates, signaling a new era of connections. Israel and the other accords signatories advanced a series of agreements across key sectors, including security, trade, health, culture and economics, culminating in a free trade agreement between Israel and the UAE.
The accords also resulted in the groundbreaking Negev Forum, a first-of-its-kind platform for regional cooperation bringing together Bahrain, the UAE, Israel, Morocco, Egypt and the United States. It was a significant milestone where Israeli and Arab representatives met publicly and regularly. The message: Israelis and Arabs were ready, willing and engaged in dialogue to promote stability and peace.
Unsurprisingly, the Palestinians, who have a long history of rejecting normalization with Israel, boycotted the forum. Still, the participating countries pursued comprehensive alliances in hopes that the Palestinians would also contribute to regional stability.
Despite persistent Palestinian rejectionism, momentum toward normalization gained traction. Saudi Arabia, the Arab and Islamic world’s most influential power, seemed close to a breakthrough with Israel. Optimism peaked in September 2023, when Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told Fox News, “Every day we get closer. … It seems it’s for the first time a real one, serious.” Experts believed Saudi participation would be a game-changer, prompting normalization across the region.
Then came Oct. 7.
Hamas’ assault on peace
The momentum came to a sudden halt on Oct. 7, 2023, when Hamas invaded Israel, slaughtered 1,200 Israelis and foreign nationals, injured thousands and took 251 people hostage. Besides killing Jews, Hamas and its Iranian patrons attempted to thwart normalization between Israel and the Arab world.
The Iran-led Axis of Resistance was partly successful in stalling an expansion of the accords. The attack shook Israel and prompted its ongoing campaign to dismantle Hamas. Images of peace gatherings and cooperation were replaced with scenes of death and devastation, as a result of the war started by Hamas.
Israel soon faced not only Hamas but also Iran and its broader proxy network, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, militias in Syria and Iraq, and Iran-backed groups in the West Bank.
Most recently, Israel’s 12-day war with Iran damaged Iran’s nuclear facilities and missile program and killed key nuclear scientists and senior military commanders. With U.S. support, Israel achieved resounding victories on the tactical, operational and strategic fronts, degrading Iran’s retaliatory efforts.
Iran’s proxies, particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon, have also been severely weakened. Its secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah, made a fatal mistake by involving Hezbollah in the war with Israel. As a result, Israel’s Pager Operation killed Nasrallah along with many top leaders and thousands of operatives. The weakening of Hezbollah, Iran’s most powerful armed proxy, is good news for advocates of Arab-Israeli peace.
Meanwhile, the downfall of the Assad regime in Syria dealt another blow to Iran’s axis. Syria is no longer home to hundreds of Iranian military outposts and a passageway for weapons transfers to its proxies.
By winning public backing from the UAE and Saudi Arabia, Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa has signaled a break with Tehran. Although critics warn he may be a wolf in sheep’s clothing, his apparent move away from the Iranian regime suggests a desire to chart a new path.
These decisive setbacks to Iran and its proxies have encouraged Arab countries to change their tone from condemnations of Israel to calls on Hamas to disarm. The Arab League even condemned Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack. This shift would not have happened without Israel’s military achievements.
The reelection of Mr. Trump has also influenced the region’s recalibration. It is no secret that Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Mohammed bin Salman, and other Persian Gulf leaders have established personal ties with Mr. Trump. A testament to this bond was Mr. Trump’s first official trip abroad to the Gulf, where he reaffirmed his commitment to expanding the Abraham Accords at the Riyadh investment summit. The warm welcome he received suggests that the Saudi crown prince is aligned with this vision.
Timing, however, remains critical. Arab leaders cannot enter peace negotiations with Israel while the war in the Gaza Strip continues. Media outlets flood screens with images of suffering Palestinians, inflaming public opinion at home and rendering any diplomatic initiatives untenable, as confirmed by numerous public opinion polls in the kingdom.
The path forward
The expansion of the Abraham Accords requires tremendous backing from the international community. A lack of enthusiasm in Washington during the Biden administration let the momentum slide, shelving efforts to expand the accords.
The future does not have to be bleak. Arab leaders continue to voice a desire for peace with Israel, condemning terrorism. Accords countries remain committed and are steadily deepening partnerships, most recently seen in defense collaboration between Israel and the UAE to co-develop advanced drones. This was yet another major milestone, but one that went largely unnoticed amid the overwhelming turmoil in the Middle East. It should not have.
We cannot allow extremists to control the discourse and hold the region hostage. The international community must change its approach.
The Abraham Accords have weathered every test and proved to be one of the Middle East’s most stable forces, despite pressure from Arab voices to cancel them, especially since the war in Gaza. Now is the time for bold leadership, driven by a broad alliance committed to peace and the expansion of the accords.
• Yaara Segal is an expert on the Abraham Accords and a strategy and communications consultant focused on the Middle East and North Africa region. She previously served in the Israeli Foreign Ministry and was a senior adviser to the Israeli ambassador in the United Arab Emirates.
Please read our comment policy before commenting.