OPINION:
President Trump has been throwing threats around as if they were confetti. Fortunately or unfortunately, he has not followed through on any of them.
First, Mr. Trump set a 50-day deadline for Russian President Vladimir Putin to make peace in Ukraine. Frustrated by Mr. Putin’s inaction, he moved the deadline up to a 10-day period, which expired with the same result. When that deadline passed, Mr. Trump did nothing to penalize Russia.
Last week, Mr. Trump made more threats. On Saturday, he demanded that the Venezuelan government take back “prisoners and people from mental institutions” whom he said the Venezuelans had “forced into the United States of America.” Mr. Trump added, “GET THEM THE HELL OUT OF OUR COUNTRY, RIGHT NOW, OR THE PRICE YOU PAY WILL BE INCALCULABLE!”
He then threatened Afghanistan if it didn’t return Bagram Air Base to the United States. Mr. Trump wrote on Truth Social: “If Afghanistan doesn’t give Bagram Airbase back to those that built it, the United States of America, BAD THINGS ARE GOING TO HAPPEN!!!” The Taliban regime immediately rejected Mr. Trump’s threat.
There is worse in Russia’s highly provocative actions against NATO members.
On Sept. 10, Russian drones flew into Polish airspace. NATO jets, Polish and Dutch, shot down four of the 19 drones. There have been such incidents in Latvia and Lithuania.
Mr. Trump said the Russian incursion could have been a mistake. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk dismissed Mr. Trump’s remarks, saying, “We would also wish that the drone attack on Poland was a mistake. But it wasn’t. And we know it.”
Worse yet, three Russian MiG-31 fighters flew into Estonia’s capital this month. The MiG-31s were reportedly “flying dark” with their transponders turned off and spent about 12 minutes in Estonian airspace without communicating with Estonian air traffic control. The MiGs were intercepted by Estonian and NATO fighters.
Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said Russia violated Estonian airspace four times this year, “but today’s incursion, involving three fighter aircraft entering our airspace, is unprecedentedly brazen.”
“I don’t love it,” Mr. Trump said. “I don’t like when that happens. It could be big trouble, but I’ll let you know later.”
In another incident, Russian drones made an incursion into Romanian airspace. They were intercepted by three Romanian F-16s that monitored them. Why weren’t they shot down?
These incursions into NATO members’ airspace are severe provocations, but Mr. Trump, other than his initial reactions, hasn’t said a word about them.
NATO has announced that it would deploy more air defenses on its eastern borders to prevent further incursions, but that is insufficient to deter Mr. Putin.
The Russian incursions are escalations of their war on Ukraine. Mr. Putin is testing NATO to see how it reacts. So far, NATO has consulted but not acted.
Mr. Trump has ruled out further sanctions on Moscow while the European NATO members continue importing Russian oil. Their contumacious behavior is intended to tie the president’s hands.
Mr. Trump’s Ukraine envoy, Keith Kellogg, told a Kyiv news conference that the U.S. president was becoming “exasperated” with Mr. Putin. Mr. Kellogg cautioned European leaders, saying, “One thing I would advise anyone who is working with President Trump: Do not put him in a position where he thinks he’s being used. That is probably the worst place you can be with him.”
Mr. Trump is being used, but by Europe’s NATO members and Mr. Putin, whose ambition to conquer Ukraine is undiminished.
Mr. Trump needs to lead Europe’s NATO members, not just follow them. So what can he do?
The first thing he can and should do is to speak out and make clear that any Russian aircraft — drones and/or fighters — will be shot down if they make any incursions into NATO airspace. That will require the agreement of the NATO governments to defend their sovereignty over their own airspace. That shouldn’t be hard to obtain, especially with implied U.S. assistance.
Mr. Trump’s threats extend to the Hamas war on Israel in the Gaza Strip. On Sept. 15, he wrote on Truth Social, “I have just read a News Report that Hamas has moved the hostages above ground to use them as human shields against Israel’s ground offensive…This is a human atrocity, the likes of which few people have ever seen before. Don’t let this happen or, ALL ‘BETS’ ARE OFF. RELEASE ALL HOSTAGES NOW!”
To be fair to Mr. Trump, that can mean only the obvious: that Israel will continue its campaign in Gaza City and all of the Gaza Strip unless all hostages are released. Still, Mr. Trump needs to make clear what consequences he has in mind and make them happen when, not if, Hamas uses the hostages as human shields.
Mr. Trump should not be making empty threats. Our biggest enemies — China, Russia and Iran — are watching, studying and learning.
• Jed Babbin is a national security and foreign affairs columnist for The Washington Times and a contributing editor for The American Spectator.
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