SEOUL, South Korea — Seoul’s point man on North Korea warned Thursday that Pyongyang possesses enough fissile material for potentially hundreds of nuclear devices and has plans for more.
“Even at this very hour, uranium centrifuges at four locations are running, probably accumulating nuclear materials,” Unification Minister Chung Dong-young told a press conference in Seoul. “It is urgent to stop [the programs].”
He said it would be “desirable” for Pyongyang-Washington talks to “take place as soon as possible.”
Mr. Chung’s briefing Thursday followed President Lee Jae-myung’s speech to the U.N. General Assembly on Tuesday, where he called for resuming relations in order to eventually denuclearize.
This points to realism prevailing in Seoul’s policy.
Also Thursday, Mr. Lee, in New York, said, “Wouldn’t there be considerable security benefits if we could just halt the production of nuclear warheads or the development and export of intercontinental ballistic missiles?”
Liberal Mr. Lee won office after conservative predecessor Yoon Suk Yeol was impeached after declaring martial law last December. That led to Mr. Lee’s electoral victory in June.
Unlike Mr. Yoon, Mr. Lee has a strong interest in engaging with North Korea.
Since 2000, a trend has emerged. A liberal Seoul administration opens relations with Pyongyang; relations are then downgraded when a conservative administration succeeds it; the process repeats.
North Korean denuclearization may not be feasible.
Pyongyang has witnessed the fate of nations including Iraq, Libya, Ukraine and Iran that have abandoned, or failed to develop, weapons of mass destruction.
“The world already knows well what the United States does after forcing other countries to give up their nuclear weapons and disarm,” Mr. Kim told his Supreme People’s Assembly on Sept. 22– an apparent reference to regime collapses in Iraq and Libya.
Mr. Kim has backers on the U.N. Security Council. Since the outbreak of the Ukraine War, Moscow and Beijing have blocked U.S.-led efforts to punish North Korea in the U.N.S.C.
When Mr. Kim joined Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin for end-of-World War II commemoration events in Beijing on Sept. 3, there were no calls for him to disarm. Some speculate that Beijing and Moscow now recognize Pyongyang as a de facto nuclear state.
Some suspect Seoul now seeks to engage Pyongyang, rather than disarm it. Others warn that doing nothing — “strategic patience” — has failed, and simply allows North Korea to expand its threat portfolio.
Kim guns up
Mr. Chung said that, per analyses, North Korea possesses some 2,000 kgs of highly enriched uranium, or HEU.
Uranium enriched to the point where 90% of the material is uranium 239 – the number relates to the isotope of the element — is considered “weapons grade.”
According to the Union of Concerned Scientists, depending upon the sophistication of the weapon the fissile material is used in, between 6kg and 60kg of HEU is needed for nuclear devices.
Per Mr. Chung’s estimates, that formula means North Korea possesses between 33 and 333 uranium-based devices.
It also possesses a separate, plutonium-based fissile materials program and diverse delivery systems.
North Korea first tested an intercontinental ballistic missile able to strike the U.S. mainland in 2017 and has continued tests and research while deploying multiple missile classes ranged in on South Korea and Japan.
It has demonstrated survivable launch assets, ranging from trains and transporter erector launchers that can hide in tunnels, to missile platforms underwater in lakes.
Some believe Pyongyang could use asymmetric delivery assets — such as nuclearized mini submarines or disguised trawlers that could infiltrate South Korean or Japanese harbors.
This threat array has sparked high-profile diplomatic initiatives, including the China-sponsored “Six Party Talks” and bilateral leader-level diplomacy by the United States.
However, high-level negotiations broke off after then-President Donald Trump and Mr. Kim failed to reach an agreement in a 2019 summit in Vietnam.
New administration, new plan
Addressing the U.N. General Assembly, Mr. Lee laid out his master plan.
“Through comprehensive dialogue centered on ‘Exchange,’ ‘Normalization,’ and ‘Denuclearization,’ in other words, “E.N.D.,” we must end the era of hostility and confrontation on the Korean Peninsula and usher in a new era of peaceful coexistence and shared growth,” he said.
Calling denuclearization “undoubtedly a grave task,” he called for “rational solutions” that “cannot be achieved in the short term.”
He suggested a “stop” in development, followed by a “reduction” and finally “dismantlement.”
Experts question whether North Korea will ever disarm.
They point to the immense national efforts and sacrifices it has made to go critical in the face of global pressures and sanctions, and its own security concerns. Pyongyang repeatedly references its pride in its WMD, both internally and externally.
If the Lee administration’s focus is on restarting relations with Pyongyang, verbalizing the endgame of denuclearization may be a useful sweetener for overseas publics concerned about North Korean nukes.
“I don’t think denuclearization is possible,” said Chad O’Carroll, who heads Seoul-based Korea Risk Group. “But trying to get the ball [of negotiations] rolling with talk of denuclearization may be necessary for convincing people in Japan and the U.S.”
North Korea has declared its disinterest in talking to South Korea, but not the U.S.
Mr. Kim said on Monday that there is “no reason not to” resume talks with the U.S. if Washington, “…abandons its delusional obsession with denuclearization.”
Mr. O’Carroll suggested that Mr. Trump may need to offer a quid pro quo for a limited deal.
“For a meeting, there will have to be some kind of ‘nudge nudge’ from Trump to Kim — ‘We are going to focus on a freeze, and on low-hanging fruit, for the foreseeable future,’” he said. “Denuclearization would have to be framed as some kind of global disarmament to be discussed.”
Choi Jong-kun, formerly a deputy foreign minister under the liberal Moon Jae-in administration, insists that non-communication generates failure.
“We have had a vicious circle of doing nothing,” he said. “That essentially strengthens North Korea’s nuclear capability.”
Long-term, pragmatic approaches are essential.
“There is no one-shot deal here,” Mr. Choi said. “An incremental approach that begins with a freeze or exchanges or whatever is the most realistic way forward.”
Even Mr. Lee, in his speech to the U.N., acknowledged that the challenges facing his “E.N.D.” initiative are towering.
“It may sound like a rosy, dream-like vision,” he said - but added, “It is by no means an impossible dream.”
• Andrew Salmon can be reached at asalmon@washingtontimes.com.
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