Trump talking to Kim Jong-un

OPINION:

North Korea’s Kim Jong-un publicly announced over the weekend that he is prepared to meet with President Trump. “If the U.S. drops its hollow obsession with denuclearization and wants to pursue peaceful coexistence with North Korea based on the recognition of reality, there is no reason for us not to sit down with the U.S. Personally, I still have good memories of U.S. President Trump.” The Korean Central News Agency published Mr. Kim’s comments a few days ago at a parliamentary meeting in Pyongyang.

I’m not surprised by Mr. Kim’s comments. When the six-party talks with North Korea commenced in 2003, North Korea’s principal representative to the talks often mentioned that North Korea wanted nuclear weapons as a deterrent, never to be used for offensive purposes. The country asked to be treated as we treated Pakistan, a nation that has good relations with the U.S. The North Korean representative said North Korea wanted a good, normal relationship with the U.S.

North Korea has consistently been told that the U.S. will never accept North Korea as a nuclear weapons state. However, with complete and verifiable denuclearization, North Korea would receive security assurances, sanctions relief and economic development assistance, to include the provision of light water reactors for civilian purposes and eventual normalization of relations with the U.S. Mr. Kim’s father, Kim Jong-il, seemingly accepted this offer. In September 2005, North Korea agreed to a joint statement committing to complete and verifiable denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

That was 2005. The situation has changed profoundly over the past 20 years. North Korea now has a formidable arsenal of nuclear weapons. Some estimates are 50 to 60 nuclear warheads, reportedly with sufficient fissile material to annually produce 15 to 20 nuclear warheads that can be miniaturized and mated to ballistic missiles.

North Korea’s sixth nuclear test in 2017 was assessed to be a test of a thermonuclear weapon. In 2019, North Korea successfully launched the Hwasong/19, a mobile, solid-fuel ballistic missile capable of targeting the entire U.S. In addition to advances in nuclear weaponization and ballistic missiles, North Korea has made significant progress with hypersonic and cruise missiles and advances with its nuclear submarine program.

Of note is North Korea’s new mutual defense treaty with Russia and the 12,000 combat troops North Korea sent for Russia’s war with Ukraine. In addition to the troops, North Korea has provided Russia with large quantities of artillery shells and ballistic missiles. In exchange, Russia has provided North Korea with considerable technical support for its satellite and nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

We are now dealing with a different North Korea. Mr. Kim is more self-confident, given his new relationship with Russia and his continued close allied relationship with China. Having two of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council ensures that North Korea no longer must be concerned with U.N. sanctions. Pictures of Mr. Kim at the 80th anniversary parade in Beijing, standing next to China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin, gave Mr. Kim significant international credibility, especially with the Global South.

A meeting between Mr. Trump and Mr. Kim could develop into a series of meetings that result in North Korea’s halting the further production of fissile material for nuclear weapons, with no additional nuclear tests and a moratorium on ballistic missile launches. This would be a major success for Mr. Trump and the U.S. It would also lessen tension with South Korea and Japan.

The “eventual” U.S. goal should continue to be complete and verifiable denuclearization. However, this doesn’t have to be up front. It’s an ultimate goal that should be pursued as relations with North Korea improve, with an action-for-action process: As North Korea halts the production of fissile material and stops producing more nuclear weapons and refrains from ballistic missile launches, U.N. sanctions imposed after 2016 could be lifted. This could be accompanied by security assurances and economic development assistance, as well as discussion of liaison offices in our respective capitals. North Korea should be encouraged to rejoin the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

Mr. Trump’s entering talks with Mr. Kim could develop a relationship with North Korea that would benefit the U.S. and its allies and partners.

• The author is the former special envoy for six-party talks with North Korea and former director of the National Counterproliferation Center. All statements of fact, opinion or analysis expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official positions or views of the U.S. government. Nothing in the contents should be construed as asserting or implying U.S. government authentication of information or endorsement of the author’s views.