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U.S. forces are vulnerable to drone swarms due to insufficient scale and urgency in efforts to meet the demand for affordable, precise drone and counter-drone systems, a new report says.
Researchers at the Center for a New American Security acknowledged the Department of Defense’s efforts to improve drone capabilities over the last decade, but said it has not been enough. While the Pentagon has invested in drone and counter-drone systems, a lack of urgency has let U.S. rivals take the lead, they said Wednesday in a report.
China has far outpaced the U.S. in development and production, the report says. Without rapid development and production, U.S. forces are at risk of being overwhelmed in a potential conflict with China.
“Without deep magazines of substantially enhanced counter-drone capabilities, the United States risks having its distributed warfighting strategies overwhelmed by massed Chinese drone attacks, and the United States could lose a war over Taiwan,” the report reads.
In a battle over Taiwan, U.S. forces would need to counter an increasingly drone-reliant China, the report says. The People’s Liberation Army has long considered drones to be an integral part of its military apparatus and has launched significant investment programs to improve their effectiveness. In 2024, China ordered 1 million kamikaze drones to be manufactured by 2026 and has continued to invest in research and development.
The report provides numerous recommendations to the Pentagon, emphasizing investments in new and emerging technologies while enhancing training and integration. Specifically, the report advocates for increased counter-drone training across all armed forces, ensuring that all troops can defend themselves against the emerging threat.
Researchers said disaster can strike for lack of that proper training.
Their report cites a January 2024 incident in which an Iranian-made Shahed-101 kamikaze drone struck a containerized housing unit structure on the Jordan-Syria border. The attack killed three U.S. soldiers and injured 40. The final analysis said that U.S. forces had detected the drone long before it struck the building, but it failed to investigate and ultimately dismissed it as “possibly birds or trash.”
To prevent future tragedies, the report suggests improving drone sensors, increasing automation in decision-making and conducting realistic prototype testing, in addition to further training.
The Pentagon must also focus on emerging technologies to ensure its rivals don’t dominate the battlefield, the report says. Researchers specifically point to high-powered microwaves and high-resolution passive sensors as the future of counter-drone defenses.
The Army and the Air Force have deployed two microwave systems aimed at countering drone swarms. Unveiled in 2020, the Army’s Epirus Leonidas can be deployed against specific vehicles or large swaths of drones using electromagnetic pulse beams.
Defense experts have increasingly advocated for the advancement of electronic warfare systems like the Leonidas over traditional, kinetic means due to their reliability in countering swarms. However, the report says the U.S. should still procure large stockpiles of high-volume, short-range kinetic interceptors due to their reliability in combat.
The report comes as drones have emerged as a key weapon on the modern battlefield. Drones have become invaluable tools for Russia and Ukraine, with both sides launching massive swarms across their border.
Russia’s drone incursions have also spread outside of Ukraine. Several Russian drones entered Polish airspace this week, prompting a response from NATO forces. Alliance members condemned the move, and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte denounced Russia’s behavior as “reckless.”
• Vaughn Cockayne can be reached at vcockayne@washingtontimes.com.
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