China’s unwarranted exclusion of the U.S. and Taiwan from Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting

OPINION:

Solomon Islands Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele, under mounting pressure from Beijing, recently reaffirmed Taiwan’s exclusion from the upcoming Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting. The decision marks a significant setback for Taipei and the broader coalition of democratic partners striving for a free and open Indo-Pacific.

The Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting is no ordinary summit. It convenes high-level delegates from 18 Pacific countries and territories to set regional priorities and shape frameworks for engagements with other countries.

For decades, Taiwan has quietly maintained its diplomatic relevance by participating in sideline meetings at the summit. This year, that door has slammed shut. Taiwan now joins 20 other dialogue partners — including the U.S., Japan and France — that are also barred from attending.

Although China is now also excluded, the blanket exclusion of all dialogue partners, in practice, benefits Beijing. China retains more avenues for Pacific engagement than most other nations: Ten of the 14 members of the Pacific Island Countries Network are recipients of Belt and Road Initiative financing, and China remains the region’s second-largest donor.

Lately, China has shifted toward a more calibrated influence campaign that focuses less on formal engagements. Over the past decade, Chinese embassies in Pacific Island countries more than tripled their local, community-level engagements by donating vehicles to local governments, cash grants to schools and gifts of agricultural equipment to farmers.

This is not the first time China has influenced decision-making for the Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting. At the forum last year, when dialogue partners were still invited, China’s regional envoy, Qian Bo, demanded that a planned communique be altered to remove language about Taiwan.

In a wolf-warrior-style confrontation, Mr. Qian, whom The Independent characterized as “visibly angry,” challenged the forum’s secretary-general. The communique was republished with the paragraph regarding Taiwan removed.

Moving forward, Washington can expect sustained Chinese involvement in the region. China views engagement with Pacific Island countries as strategically important for economic and military goals.

Pacific Island countries control exclusive economic zones that span more than 10% of the world’s ocean surface. The region is rich in fisheries and natural resources and is vital to U.S. military strategy, anchoring forward deployments along the second island chain. Adding to its strategic weight, three of the 12 nations that maintain diplomatic ties with Taiwan are Pacific Island countries.

Since the Solomon Islands switched diplomatic recognition to Beijing in 2019, China has showered the country with millions of dollars in foreign aid and investments. Last year, it handed over more than $30 million in “budgetary support.”

In 2022, China signed its first security agreement with a Pacific Island country, the Solomon Islands, granting Chinese warships access to dock and receiving logistical support. Soon afterward, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi spent two weeks unsuccessfully rallying support for a similar but regionwide proposal: the “China-Pacific Island Countries Common Development Vision,” which aimed to embed Chinese military forces across the Pacific.

While China continues to expand its influence across the Pacific, Washington has critical tools to counterbalance this trend.

One such tool is the enhancement of existing ship rider arrangements. Although Pacific Island countries may welcome Chinese investments for developmental infrastructure, they remain deeply concerned about Chinese illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing within their exclusive economic zones.

The U.S. has signed ship rider agreements with 12 Pacific Island countries, allowing the U.S. Coast Guard to conduct patrols with host-state oversight. These arrangements represent a hard-power commitment to maritime security and sovereignty. Washington should consider increasing the frequency of joint patrols and integrating them with U.S. naval deployments.

Another avenue lies in safeguarding critical infrastructure. Ports, subsea cables and airfields are strategic linchpins. If funded or controlled by Chinese entities, they risk becoming conduits for espionage or dual-use military capabilities. Washington should work with members of the Pacific Island Countries Network to ensure infrastructure funding remains free from coercive leverage.

Finally, the U.S. should deepen its engagement with the network through high-level visits and sustained diplomatic outreach. In recent years, the White House has hosted regional summits and expanded its presence by opening new embassies. Building on this momentum, the administration should continue working with Congress to ensure regular representation in the region, demonstrating that Pacific partnerships are a priority.

As China deepens its political footprint across the Pacific, the U.S. must treat engagement with Pacific Island countries as a strategic necessity. China’s assertive posture at the Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting reveals a calculated effort to edge out U.S. influence and redefine the regional order on its terms.

This latest decision delivers exactly what China wants: sidelining the U.S., Taiwan and other democratic partners from a key regional platform. Washington must respond by sustaining partnerships with island nations to protect its strategic interests.

• Allen Zhang is a research assistant in the Asian Studies Center at The Heritage Foundation.