Trump-Kim meeting over North Korea’s nukes possible

A meeting between President Trump and North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un is possible in the near future and could provide the spark needed for a deal between Washington and Pyongyang, one that could limit the communist country’s nuclear program.

But Mr. Kim, backed by allies Russia and China, may have less incentive to make a deal and could take a hard line in any talks, according to Alexandre Mansourov, a professor at Georgetown University’s Center for Security Studies.

Speaking at this week’s Washington Brief, a monthly online forum hosted by The Washington Times Foundation, Mr. Mansourov argued that the relationship between Mr. Trump and Mr. Kim, forged during the American leader’s first term in office, could pay dividends in future negotiations.

Another such meeting seems realistic, Mr. Mansourov said, though Washington won’t have as much leverage as it might like.

He cited the growing coordination among Mr. Kim, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The three appeared together in Beijing last month. The deepening ties are illustrated by North Korea dispatching troops to fight alongside Russia against Ukraine, and Moscow sending weapons, fuel and food to Pyongyang.

“We see a new geopolitical alignment emerging in Northeast Asia. North Korea is in a stronger position than five, six years ago due to its renewed relationship with Russia, including a military-security alliance. Russia has provided sophisticated weapons, military technologies, fuel and food and has effectively stopped enforcing international sanctions,” Mr. Mansourov said. “This positions Kim Jong-un strongly in negotiations with South Korea and the United States. With China and Russia backing him, providing sanctions relief, diplomatic cover and credibility, he has less incentive to yield to U.S. pressure.”

He added, “If he meets President Trump, a deal is still possible. Trust is key. President Trump and President Kim have built a personal relationship over many years, which strengthens negotiations. I am optimistic that they can find a balance of interests and achieve a meaningful, though possibly moderate, agreement.”

Mr. Trump and Mr. Kim held three face-to-face meetings during Mr. Trump’s first term, though the broad agreement sought by the U.S. president — one that would end or at least greatly limit North Korea’s nuclear program in exchange for economic sanctions relief — never materialized.

Mr. Trump is expected to travel to South Korea later this month, a trip that spurred talk of a possible meeting with Mr. Kim in the region.

Mr. Mansourov and other analysts say such a meeting seems unlikely. 

If it happens, it could provide a much-needed breakthrough in U.S.-North Korea relations, said former CIA official Joseph DeTrani, who moderated Tuesday’s Washington Brief event. He added that Mr. Trump should stick to the goal of denuclearization.

“The logic is clear: If North Korea retains its nuclear weapons, other nations in the region, including South Korea and Japan, may feel compelled to pursue their own nuclear capabilities despite the U.S. extended deterrence umbrella,” Mr. DeTrani said. “Therefore, the decision before President Trump is critical — whether to meet Kim Jong-un again, knowing that doing so could implicitly acknowledge North Korea as a nuclear state.”

He added, “My view is that President Donald Trump should meet again with Kim Jong-un, but the ultimate goal must remain complete, verifiable denuclearization, even if that goal is only achieved over time.”

Some analysts and national security insiders have argued that the U.S. should recognize that North Korea is a nuclear power. The nation has conducted six nuclear tests, the last in 2017. As of last year, it’s estimated to have assembled 50 nuclear warheads and possesses enough fissile material for up to 90 nuclear weapons, according to data compiled by the Arms Control Association.

The shift among some nations in acknowledging North Korea’s nuclear status could complicate a U.S.-led push for full denuclearization.

“A few years ago, they were confronted by five nations and the rest of the world. Today, Russia has basically accepted their nuclear status — a major win. China is also shifting its position, now focusing on denuclearization of the entire Korean Peninsula rather than only North Korea. Slowly, Kim is gaining international recognition,” Mr. Mansourov said.

At Tuesday’s event, Mr. Mansourov criticized the arrest in South Korea of Hak Ja Han Moon, the 82-year-old matriarch of the Family Federation for World Peace and Unification and widow of the Rev. Sun Myung Moon. 

Mrs. Moon and the foundation she leads — formerly known as the Unification Church — are under investigation as part of an expanding probe into South Korean figures linked to imprisoned ex-President Yoon Suk Yeol, who hurled the nation into chaos with a swiftly overturned martial law declaration in December.

“This is a disgrace,” Mr. Mansourov said of the imprisoned Mrs. Moon. “A religious leader of global stature is kept in horrible conditions. She may become a martyr, much like Jesus in his time. The unification movement could grow stronger as a result. This prosecution damages South Korea’s international reputation, already criticized for religious and free speech restrictions. I hope important international cooperation projects and Korea’s soft power will not be frozen.”