Incoming Japanese prime minister faces potential coalition break-up before election

SEOUL, South Korea — Newly elected Liberal Democratic Party President Sanae Takaichi, 64, on Tuesday unveiled her party leadership team as questions swirl around the future of the LDP’s parliamentary coalition and lawmakers gear up for a vote to confirm her as prime minister.

While media have hailed her gender — she is poised to become Japan’s first female prime minister — she has never hidden her credentials as a staunch conservative.

That won praise from U.S. President Trump, who sent a congratulatory message on social media, calling her “a highly respected person of great wisdom of strength … tremendous news.”

She responded, via X, to the “warm words of congratulations,” adding her hopes to “make our Alliance even stronger & more prosperous, and to advance a Free and Open Indo-Pacific.”

Her position on the right wing of the LDP distances her from the party’s last two centrist prime ministers. This may be leading her to expand the ruling, but weakened, coalition by luring in a minority right-wing party — in turn generating problems for her existing political partner.

Ms. Takaichi held talks Tuesday with Tetsuo Saito, head of the Buddhist party Komeito, a meeting that reportedly ended without agreement.

That sparked media speculation that an upcoming parliamentary vote may be delayed. The Diet is expected to hold an extraordinary session on Oct. 15 to confirm her premiership.

Over the past four prime-ministerial terms, that vote was a formality: The ruling party’s president was guaranteed the premiership as the LDP-led coalition held a majority of seats in both upper and lower houses.

However, under the leadership of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, both majorities were lost. The LDP maintains the largest blocs of seats, however.

Mr. Ishiba, who entered office in October 2024, announced his resignation on Sept. 7, sparking an intra-party leadership race. Ms. Takaichi won it on Saturday.

She is expected — once confirmed by the Diet — to serve out the remaining three years of Mr. Ishiba’s term.

Before meeting Mr. Saito on Tuesday, Ms. Takaichi revealed her party’s new executive committee. Experience over youthfulness was prioritized.

Former Minister Shunichi Suzuki, 72, was named secretary general, and former Prime Minister Taro Aso, 85, was named vice president. Mr. Aso is seen as a kingmaker within the party.

Only one of four candidates who ran against her, former Economic Security Minister Takayuki Kobayashi, 50, was included.

Speaking prior to Tuesday’s Saito-Takaichi talks, Mr. Suzuki had said, “No matter what kind of form a new coalition would take, its basis would be the current coalition with Komeito.”

The centrist Komeito party has had an up-and-down relationship with the LDP since their first coalition, in 1999. Its most recent partnership with the ruling party has been in play since 2012.

After a previous meeting with Ms. Takaichi on Saturday, the same day she was elected LDP president, Mr. Saito explained his anxieties about her leadership.

A key issue was senior politicians’ visits to Tokyo’s Yasukuni Shrine, which honors Japan’s war dead including World War II Class A war criminals, and is seen by some as symbolic of Shinto nationalism and Japanese militarism.

“These visits have previously developed into diplomatic issues, and we hold concerns,” he told reporters.

Ms. Takaichi, formerly Interior minister and minister of Economic Security, has been among the most prominent LDP members to visit the shrine. No sitting premier has visited since 2013.

Mr. Saito continued, “It is essential for Japan to create a society including foreigners by collaborating with those motivated and capable” — an apparent rebuke to some anti-migrant messaging aired during the LDP leadership race.

He also criticized corruption as “one of the major reasons for the ruling party’s significant defeat in recent elections” and urged Ms. Takaichi “to address this properly.”

That looks tricky. One executive appointment today was former Industry Minister Koichi Hagiuda, heavily implicated in a slush fund scandal that has bedeviled the LDP since news broke in November 2023.

If the LDP wants to expand its coalition — or replace Komeito — minority conservative parties, such as Ishin No Kai (“Japan Innovation Party”) and the Democratic Party for the People, could be appropriate bedfellows.

Reportedly, Ms. Takaichi has already approached the DPFP to join the coalition.

The Diet’s more powerful lower house, the House of Representatives, comprises 465 seats.

Of those, 196 are occupied by the LDP and 24 by Komeito. The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party has 148, while Ishin has 38 and the DPFP has 27. Far-right “Japanese First” party Sanseito has three.

It is open to question whether the hawkish Ms. Takaichi is prepared for the give-and-take of coalition governance.

Her future “comes down to whether she can unite the party and manage legislative politics as minority ruling parties,” wrote Japanese politics watcher Rintaro Nishimura on X. “If she can stabilize politics and form a partnership with opposition parties (Ishin or DPFP?), then she may see out the remaining years of Ishiba’s term.”