Moscow is helping fuel a wave of illegal migrants trying to gain entry to the European Union as part of an organized campaign to undermine European leaders and distract Ukraine’s NATO allies, say intelligence officials and analysts following Europe’s growing immigration crisis.
From high above the Arctic Circle south to the Sahara, Russia has engaged in operations designed to inundate Europe with asylum-seekers from third-party countries.
“[Russia] created companies in low-income countries in the Middle East, Africa, Cuba and elsewhere where they would promise the people officially … that if they paid a certain fee, they could reach the European Union,” Pavel Slunkin, a former Foreign Ministry official in Belarus, told The Washington Times.
Mr. Slunkin, now a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, based in Warsaw, Poland, said that during his time in the Belarusian government, migrants paid as much as $10,000 to be smuggled into Europe through former Soviet bloc nations, and the trafficking continues to flourish.
Russia is waging the largest land war in Europe since World War II. It has simultaneously launched a new front along NATO’s eastern flank using migration as a weapon. Violent scuffles and skirmishes have broken out as recently as this summer.
Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Poland, Norway and Finland have noted significant increases in the number of asylum-seekers and illegal immigrants in recent years. In the Mediterranean, Russia’s role is less direct.
In April, Belarus announced plans to allow 150,000 Pakistani migrants into the country after a visit by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, during which the two countries signed a new security agreement. The move triggered fears that Belarus is planning to resume 2021-2022 efforts to funnel Pakistani nationals to the EU.
Mr. Slunkin said the policy aligned with Belarus’ close alliance with Russia. At least three Polish border guards have died, one in action, since 2021 while attempting to protect their country’s borders. More than 80 have been injured.
Violent clashes renewed this summer between migrant smugglers and Polish border guards. In at least one incident, Polish border guards were attacked with Molotov cocktails. Belarusian media reported that at least 76 bodies of would-be migrants had been found along its various borders this year. The country also borders Lithuania and Latvia.
No NATO country has a longer border with Russia than Finland. After Finland’s 2023 accession to NATO, hundreds of migrants from Eritrea, Ethiopia, Iraq, Pakistan, Somalia, Syria and Yemen crossed the 830-mile border. Finnish officials blame the movement on Russian facilitation.
“The eastern border remains closed and surveillance has been intensified across the entire frontier,” said Aura Salla, a member of the European Parliament. “Illegal entry is blocked effectively, and we are fully prepared for both large-scale migration and hybrid operations at the border.”
Ms. Salla, who represents the ruling National Coalition Party, said the Finnish government has undertaken legal changes to treat illegal migration as a national security threat.
In the past, Russia has armed immigrants with knowledge of the EU’s legal loopholes regarding migrants, and asylum-seekers have been all too willing to exploit the permissive rules.
When Norwegian law prohibited asylum-seekers from arriving on foot or as vehicle passengers, they pedaled on bicycles in 2015 across the Russo-Norwegian border, almost entirely above the Arctic Circle.
“We have also updated our laws to give authorities stronger tools,” Ms. Salla said. “Foreign nationals who pose a threat to public order can now be detained. The maximum detention time before a removal decision has been extended from six to 12 months. It is also easier to revoke residence permits and impose entry bans when needed.”
Other countries have made similar legal changes and improved their border security. Lessons learned in Finland have been deployed elsewhere as well. Last month, a unit of Finnish border guards was deployed to Latvia to assist in securing the country’s borders.
The increased role of Russian private military contractors, notably the Wagner Group, in Africa is one long-term aspect of Russia’s policy.
“Russia’s mercenary engagement in the Sahel region aligns with its broader geopolitical interests, seeking to increase influence and access natural resources,” said Freeman Musikambesa, a conflict analyst with the think tank Eastern Caucasus.
Analysts warn that when the war in Ukraine ends, Moscow will likely redirect freed-up resources toward hybrid warfare, including the manipulation of migration flows to Europe.
“Russia is effectively exploiting mass displacement and migration to its advantage. This is part of a broader destabilization strategy aimed at causing a crisis in the European Union,” Mr. Musikambesa said.
Italy’s government has blamed Russian-linked private military contractors for surges of migrant boats leaving Libya. Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi once threatened to unleash migration toward Europe to prevent NATO’s 2011 intervention, a playbook Moscow appears eager to revive.
Although overall illegal migration to Europe across the Mediterranean has dropped this year because of stronger enforcement and border cooperation with North African states, the Sahel remains a major flash point.
Almost 22,000 nationals from Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger sought refuge in the European Union last year, the most significant wave in more than 10 years, according to data from the Migration Policy Institute. The surge comes from nations where Russia’s Wagner mercenaries, now operating under the Africa Corps label, have operated openly, underscoring the destabilizing fallout of Moscow’s growing reach in Africa.
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