Trump predicts strong holiday economy, says tariffs have made America ‘an economic power’

President Trump on Monday forecasted a strong holiday economy, saying his tariffs have helped reduce inflation and sent stock markets surging.

“Good news for the holiday season. Early prices are down, while tariffs are making our country an economic power again. Also, virtually no inflation, as stock markets continually hit record highs. The Best of all worlds for the USA,” Mr. Trump posted on Truth Social.

The U.S. stock market continues to rise, even as the government shutdown enters its second week and political drama roils France and Japan. In early morning trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 500 were up slightly.

However, inflation still persists, and a report released Monday morning predicted online holiday sales will grow at a slower pace this year because of uncertainty over the economy.

The report by data firm Adobe Analytics said U.S. online holiday sales will increase 5.3% to $253.4 billion this year, down from an 8.7% increase last year. In a statement accompanying the report, Adobe signaled the Trump administration’s shifting tariff policy will impact consumer spending.

The most recent inflation report, which came out in September, showed the price of gas, groceries and airfare all increased, showing that inflation is taking a while to tame. Consumer prices in August increased 2.9% from a year earlier, according to data from the Department. Excluding the volatile food and energy prices, core prices rose 3.1%, the same as July and above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target rate.

Last month, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, putting them in the range of 4% to 4.25%, the lowest level since late 2022.