Conservative Sanae Takaichi poised to be Japan’s first female prime minister

SEOUL, South Korea — Sanae Takaichi, having won the leadership of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party on Saturday, looks set to become the first-ever female prime minister of Japan, America’s leading Indo-Pacific ally.

Although much commentary focuses on her gender, Ms. Takaichi, 64, is no wilting geisha. A champion of her party’s right wing and a protege of Japan’s longest-serving prime minister, conservative Shinzo Abe, she cites former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher as her political role model.

She was catapulted into the LDP’s leadership position via an intraparty vote. She remains to be confirmed as prime minister, a position for which the Diet must vote. That vote is anticipated in mid-October.

Although her prime minister position is not guaranteed, she will likely gain the necessary numbers and serve out the remaining term of sitting Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, which runs through September 2027.

Though the LDP lost its majority in the Diet’s upper and lower houses under Mr. Ishiba, the party occupies more seats than any other. Moreover, Ms. Takaichi’s right-wing bent looks likely to make her amenable to minority right-wing parties expanding their Diet presence in recent elections.

The LDP’s poor electoral showings under Mr. Ishiba were a key reason the party kingmakers lost faith in his leadership. To avoid an unseemly intraparty struggle, he announced his resignation on Sept. 7, leading to the official leadership race Saturday.

Ms. Takaichi fended off a challenge from popular Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, in the day’s second round of voting. The two emerged as front-runners after three more challengers were eliminated in the first stage.

Ms. Takaichi earned 185 votes from sitting LDP lawmakers and party chapter heads. Mr. Koizumi garnered 156 votes.

Ms. Takaichi inherits a fraught position. The nation is facing a demographic plunge, a long economic malaise, and a threatening regional security environment in which Japan faces an expansive China, a warlike Russia and a nuclear-armed North Korea.

Ms. Takaichi did not sugarcoat the task ahead.

“Rather than feeling happy, I am feeling how tough things are going to be,” she said after the results were announced.

A former economic security minister and a lawmaker with three decades of experience, she represents Nara, one of Japan’s poorer constituencies.

“Very energetic and dynamic: She can compete on that with the younger leaders of the opposition,” said Scott Foster, a Tokyo-based analyst with LightStream Research. “Abe without the charm, though she is working on that.”

She is considered Abe’s leading protege. Abe sought to empower Japan’s military and pioneered the term “Indo-Pacific” for regional strategy, which was subsequently adopted by the U.S. Abe also struck up amicable relations with Donald Trump in his first presidential term.

Widely seen overseas as an internationalist, Abe was considered a nationalist in China and South Korea because he attempted to end the discussion of Japan’s wartime aggressions.

It is not entirely clear how closely Ms. Takaichi adheres to the beliefs of Abe, who was assassinated in 2022. If she can overcome simmering local discontent over U.S. tariffs, she will likely align with Mr. Trump. She has long been hawkish on China and favors raising the national defense budget and other government spending.

She may also sync with MAGA.

Japan’s foreign population hit a record high of 3.7 million last year, though that represents only 3% of a nation suffering catastrophic demographic decline. Meanwhile, Japan is receiving record foreign tourism volumes as a result of policies pioneered by Abe, who sought to upgrade the service sector.

It may have worked too well. What is arguably the politest society on earth has been irked by rude, unruly and evermore numerous foreigners. Ms. Takaichi has raised some of those concerns, alleging that foreigners have disturbed the deer in Nara.

Anti-foreign narratives have fueled the rise of parties such as Sanseito. Its “Japanese First” brand won 2% of the vote in the last election.

“Takaichi is going to tighten immigration law and deport illegals,” said Akira Yasui, a trader in Aichi prefecture who expressed satisfaction at Ms. Takaichi’s win. “She is going to accept immigrants mildly under strict immigration control.”

Still, the economic demands of a falling population could put the brakes on tightening immigration flows.

“Toxic anti-immigration rhetoric has captivated the imagination of Japanese who are more annoyed with tourists behaving badly than actual foreign workers,” said Haruko Satoh, an expert on regional relations at Osaka’s School of International Public Policy. “Lack of a coherent immigration policy is a long-overdue issue … but probably won’t go too far because businesses need workers.”

LDP members are concerned that the party is losing its foothold as the nation’s core conservative party. Its past two leaders, Mr. Ishiba and Fumio Kishida, hailed from the party’s centrist or liberal wings.

The new leader may allay concerns, and her rightward stance could earn the support of upstart conservative parties in the Diet that are newly important, given the LDP’s loss of majorities.

“Many conservative politicians in the LDP lost elections under the Ishiba administration, so the LDP today looks like a left-wing party,” said Mr. Yasui. “Politicians in the small right-wing parties say, ‘If Takaichi really works for Japan, we will help her.’”

On foreign policy, Ms. Takaichi’s direction is unclear.

“She is untested in foreign policy,” Ms. Satoh said. “I hope she does not rock the boat too much with Yasukuni again.”

Yasukuni Shrine, which honors Japan’s war dead, including World War II war criminals, infuriates Beijing and Seoul. Abe was the last Japanese prime minister to visit the shrine in 2013. Ms. Takaichi has visited Yasukuni, as have many other politicians, but it is unclear whether she would do so as prime minister.

Her gender has been widely discussed in domestic and international media but may not be an asset once she assumes office.

“She is aggressive, and that is a quality in women that Japanese don’t like,” said Ms. Satoh, who notes that Ms. Takaichi opposes anti-feminist policies such as permitting wives to maintain their maiden surnames. “I think she will come across as too pushy and strong. … I can’t imagine her unifying the party in a way that would inspire voter confidence.”