SEOUL, South Korea – Having won the leadership of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party Saturday, Sanae Takaichi, 64, looks set to become the first-ever female premier of Japan, America’s leading Indo-Pacific ally.
While much commentary focuses on her gender, Ms. Takaichi is no wilting geisha. A champion of her party’s right wing and a protege of Japan’s longest-serving premier, the conservative Shinzo Abe, she cites the late British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher as her political role model.
She was catapulted into the LDP’s leadership position via an intra-party vote. She remains to be confirmed as prime minister, a position which must be voted on by the Diet. That vote is anticipated in mid-October.
While her premiership is not guaranteed, it is likely she will gain the necessary numbers and serve out the remaining term of sitting Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, which runs through September 2027.
Though the LDP lost its majority in the Diet’s upper and lower houses under Mr. Ishiba, the party occupies more seats than any other. Moreover, Ms. Takaichi’s right-wing bent looks likely to make her amenable to minority right-wing parties that have expanded their Diet presence in recent elections.
The LDP’s poor electoral showings under Mr. Ishiba were a key reason for party kingmakers’ loss of faith in his leadership. In order to avoid an unseemly intra-party struggle, he announced on Sept. 7 that he was resigning, leading to Saturday’s official leadership race.
In it, Ms. Takaichi saw off a challenge from popular Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, son of ex-Premier Junichiro Koizumi, in the day’s second round of voting. The two emerged as front-runners after three more challengers were eliminated in the first stage, early in the day.
Ms. Takaichi earned a total of 185 votes from sitting LDP lawmakers and party chapter heads. Mr. Koizumi garnered 156 votes from the same pool.
Ms. Takaichi inherits a fraught position. The nation is facing a demographic plunge, a long economic malaise, and a threatening regional security environment in which Japan faces an expansive China, a warlike Russia and a nuclear-armed North Korea.
Ms. Takaichi did not sugarcoat the task ahead.
“Rather than feeling happy, I am feeling how tough things are going to be,” she said, after the results were announced.
A former Economic Security minister and a lawmaker with three decades of experience, she represents Nara, one of Japan’s poorer constituencies.
“Very energetic and dynamic: She can compete on that with the younger leaders of the opposition,” said Scott Foster, a Tokyo-based analyst with Lightstream Research. “Abe without the charm — though she is working on that.”
She is seen as the leading protégé of Mr. Abe, who sought to empower Japan’s military and pioneered the term “Indo-Pacific” for regional strategy — which was subsequently adopted by the U.S. Mr. Abe also struck up amicable relations with Donald Trump in his first presidential term.
Widely seen overseas as an internationalist, Mr. Abe was considered a nationalist in China and South Korea, due to his attempts to end discussion of Japan’s wartime aggressions.
It is not entirely clear how closely Ms. Takaichi cleaves today to the beliefs of Mr. Abe, who was murdered in 2022. But if she can overcome simmering local discontent over U.S. tariffs, she looks likely to synch with Trump II. She has long been hawkish on China and favors raising the national defense budget and other government spending.
She may also synch with MAGA.
Japan’s foreign population last year hit a record high of 3.7 million, though that is still only 3% of a nation suffering catastrophic demographic decline. Meanwhile, Japan is receiving record foreign tourism volumes as a result of policies pioneered by Mr. Abe, who sought to upgrade the service sector.
It may have worked too well. Arguably, the politest society on earth has been irked by rude, unruly and ever-more numerous foreigners. Ms. Takaichi has raised some of those concerns, alleging that foreigners have disturbed the deer in Nara.
Anti-foreign narratives have fueled the rise of parties like Sanseito, with its “Japanese First” brand, and which won 2% of the vote in the last election.
“Takaichi is going to tighten immigration law and deport illegals,” said Akira Yasui, a trader in Aichi Prefecture who expressed satisfaction at Ms. Takaichi’s win. “She is going to accept immigrants mildly under strict immigration control.”
Still, the economic demands of a falling populace could put the brakes on tightening immigration flows.
“Toxic anti-immigration rhetoric has captivated the imagination of Japanese who are more annoyed with tourists behaving badly that actual foreign workers,” said Haruko Satoh, an expert on regional relations at Osaka’s School of International Policy. “Lack of a coherent immigration policy is a long overdue issue … but probably won’t go too far because businesses need workers.”
There has been concern within the LDP that it is losing its foothold as the nation’s core conservative party: Its last two leaders, Mr. Ishiba and his predecessor Fumio Kishida, hailed from the party’s centrist or liberal wings.
The new leader may allay concerns — and her right-leg stance could earn the support of upstart conservative parties in the Diet who are newly important, given the LDP’s loss of majorities.
“Many conservative politicians in the LDP lost elections under the Ishiba administration, so the LDP today looks like a left-wing party,” said Mr. Yasui. “Politicians in the small right-wing parties say, ‘If Takaichi really works for Japan, we will help her.’”
On foreign policy, Ms. Takaichi’s direction is unclear.
“She is untested in foreign policy,” Ms. Satoh said. “I hope she does not rock the boat too much with Yasukuni again.”
Yasukuni Shrine, which honors Japan’s war dead — including World War II war criminals — infuriates Beijing and Seoul. The late Mr. Abe was the last Japanese prime minister to visit the shrine, in 2013. Ms. Takaichi has visited Yasukuni — as have many politicians — but it is unclear if she would do so as prime minister.
Her gender has been widely discussed in domestic and international media but may not be a plus once she assumes office.
“She is aggressive, and that is a quality in women that Japanese don’t like,” said Ms Satoh, who notes that Ms. Takaichi opposes anti-feminist policies such as permitting wives to maintain their maiden surnames. “I think she will come across as too pushy and strong … I can’t imagine her unifying the party in a way that would inspire voter confidence.”
• Andrew Salmon can be reached at asalmon@washingtontimes.com.
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