Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares’ reelection campaign is closing strong, giving Republicans optimism as they brace for Tuesday’s Election Day and confront the “Virginia curse.”
Historically, the party of the sitting president has struggled in Virginia’s off-year contests — a trend that appears to be holding this election cycle.
Yet Mr. Miyares stands out as a potential exception, according to a Roanoke College poll released Thursday showing he leads 46%-38% over embattled Democrat Jay Jones.
Meanwhile, Democrat Abigail Spanberger maintains a comfortable edge, 51% to 41%, over Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in the governor’s race, and Democrat Ghazala Hashmi has a 42%-40% lead over Republican John Reid in the race for lieutenant governor.
Mr. Miyares appears to be benefiting from a pair of October surprises — Mr. Jones’ texting scandal and the Democrats’ late-innings effort in Richmond to change the state’s congressional maps before the midterm elections next year.
“While Jones has clearly lost some support among Democrats, they have not moved over to support Miyares, suggesting they may either come home in the end or simply not vote in that race,” said Harry Wilson, interim director for the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research and professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College. “As concerning for Jones, Miyares now narrowly leads among independents.”
“It may be unprecedented to see such a divergence between the race for governor and attorney general,” Mr. Wilson added.
The so-called Virginia curse refers to the struggles the incumbent president’s party has had in the state’s off-year elections.
The party that wins the presidency has emerged victorious only once in Virginia’s gubernatorial elections since 1976, a result that has affected down-ticket races. But this year, things are looking up for Republicans in the race for the state’s top prosecutor.
The attorney general’s contest shifted after the news broke that Mr. Jones sent text messages in 2022 to a GOP colleague in the House of Delegates musing about putting two bullets in the head of then-House Speaker Todd Gilbert, a Republican.
The news came on the heels of revelations that Mr. Jones drove 116 mph in a 70-mph zone but avoided jail time in 2022. Instead, he paid a $1,500 fine and spent half of his 1,000 court-ordered community service hours helping out his PAC, Meet Our Moment.
Up until that point in the race, Mr. Jones held a consistent polling lead. Then the dynamic flipped.
Mr. Miyares has led in nine of the past 10 polls and was tied in the other one.
This week, Mr. Miyares scored some headlines after issuing a legal opinion saying the Democratic push to redraw the state’s congressional lines violates the state Constitution.
The drama around Mr. Jones has added uncertainty to other statewide races and the contest for the House of Delegates, with all 100 seats up for grabs.
Since the texting scandal broke, Ms. Spanberger has distanced herself from Mr. Jones.
The move has sparked criticism from some Democrats who argue that alienating a fellow party member could backfire — especially if Mr. Miyares wins and becomes an obstacle should Ms. Spanberger become Virginia’s first female governor.
Still, she’s running strong.
Mr. Wilson said Ms. Spanberger has “maximized” her support among Democrats, while Ms. Earle-Sears has more work to do on that front and must do more to rally independents to pull off a come-from-behind victory.
Democrats, still reeling from a bruising 2024 election and eager to challenge President Trump, have nationalized the Virginia races.
Ms. Spanberger has positioned herself as an antithesis to what she sees as Mr. Trump’s ill-advised policies and chaotic approach to politics. She has blamed the Department of Government Efficiency-led firings and retirements of federal workers for hurting Virginia’s economy and criticized the Trump tariffs.
For his part, Mr. Jones has warned voters that Mr. Miyares is too weak to stand up against Mr. Trump.
The Roanoke College poll shows Mr. Trump’s approval rating is underwater at 40%, while Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s sits at 50%.
Conducted from Oct. 22-27, the survey included 1,041 respondents and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.05 percentage points.
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.
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