America aims to keep air superiority in high-tech battle spaces

For the first time in a generation, it’s no longer a given that the U.S. and its allies will control the skies with ease in a future conflict.

And in the 21st century, gaining and maintaining air superiority will require a mix of the most cutting-edge tactical drones, artificial intelligence-powered surveillance aircraft, multi-million-dollar fighter jets and stealth bombers.

There’s an acknowledgment inside the Pentagon and in leading defense firms that the post-Cold War era in which America easily overpowered its foes — such as the forces of Saddam Hussein’s Iraq and Taliban-controlled Afghanistan — in the air has ended. Great power rivals such as China and Russia have closed the gap by spending massively to boost their air capabilities.

At the same time, the proliferation of cheap, easy-to-use drones has reshaped warfare and raised fundamental questions about what air superiority means today.

That fast-moving new reality is driving decision-making inside the Pentagon and in leading defense firms across the West. There’s an acknowledgment that America’s air superiority is an ideal that must be fought for, not taken for granted.

“We kind of got used to, after 9/11, that fight had already been done. We beat down Iraq’s air power in the No Fly Zone for many years. Afghanistan’s air force only lasted hours. And so we got used to, as an Air Force, as a joint force, to take that for granted. We had to control the air so we could exploit all of our services,” retired Air Force Gen. James Holmes, now a senior adviser at Boeing Defense, Space & Security, said during a panel discussion at the recent Air, Space & Cyber Conference hosted by the Air & Space Forces Association in National Harbor, Maryland.

Today, Gen. Holmes said, the Air Force is in a different place and is working “to counter the threats posed by China.”

He added, “Now we’re back to a world where we need to get used to thinking about fighting.”

The mission to ensure American air superiority in any future conflict — whether it be in the Middle East, Europe or the Pacific against communist China — is being undertaken across the U.S. military-industrial machine. But perhaps nowhere is the mission more urgent than inside Air Force Futures.

Air Force Lt. Gen. David Harris, the deputy chief of staff at Air Force Futures, is among the top military officials overseeing the evolution of Air Force strategy to confront the fast-evolving landscape of threats in the 21st century. He said recently in an exclusive interview that military commanders view their mission through several years into the future.

Air Force Futures, he said, looks significantly further out.

“A combatant commander, one of your geographic commands, whatever problem set they face, they normally have about a today look into about two to three years into the future. So they fight with the equipment that the Air Force or any service gives them today,” Gen. Harris said during a recent interview for the Threat Status Influencers video series.

“What we look at is, where is that trend going in three to seven years? And that’s the long-term strategy piece,” he said. “Because oftentimes, that’s the time it takes for us to develop a clean sheet new design piece. So, if I have current capability today that just needs a little bit of modification, we’ve got some great industry partners that can turn on a dime. And next year, be able to put a new piece of equipment onto a plane that already exists to be able to negate that threat” facing the U.S. or its partners.

The drone era

Gen. Harris said he doesn’t see a difference in air superiority below 5,000 feet and above 5,000 feet.

“I contend that … air superiority is air superiority,” he said.

That’s a crucial point. The types of small attack drones that have reshaped the battlefield in Ukraine fly much lower than most manned aircraft.

While that makes them vulnerable to counterdrone measures such as electronic warfare and signal jamming, it also opens up a new world of possibilities in terms of air power. Small drones can target tanks or even ships in ways that larger aircraft can’t.

In future conflicts, military commanders see a world in which drone swarms — dozens or even hundreds of unmanned aircraft acting in unison — could control the skies at low altitudes and wreak havoc on ground forces or armored columns.

Such drone swarms are a central component of the hellscape model laid out by Adm. Sam Paparo, the commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, who said that creating such an environment would keep an enemy — such as China’s People’s Liberation Army — at bay long enough for the U.S. to move more air and naval assets into the region.

The Pentagon is amid a major effort to build drones in massive numbers. That buildup reflects the growing consensus inside the defense industry that drones are becoming common tools of modern war used routinely at the tactical level.

Some defense sector sources have told The Washington Times that small drones in particular are becoming like ammunition: basic pieces of warfighting equipment that virtually every soldier will soon have in his or her tool kit.

Around the world, the drones have also given traditionally weaker actors, such as Yemen’s Houthi rebels, the ability to punch far above their weight when facing off against the world’s most capable armed forces.

But the new paradigm doesn’t mean that drones are the only answer. Some aerospace insiders caution the Pentagon against putting all its time, attention and money into drones.

“It’s not a matter of either-or. It’s a matter of both,” said retired Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula, dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies.

“The military has to resist the temptation to see drones as silver bullets, if you will. These systems are tools. They’re not substitutes for a comprehensive air power strategy,” he said during a recent exclusive interview on the Threat Status weekly podcast.

Mr. Deptula and other aerospace leaders point to Israel’s air campaign against Iran this year as evidence that manned aircraft such as Lockheed Martin’s F-35 remain an irreplaceable part of airpower strategy. Israeli F-35 missions were key in crushing Iran’s air defenses, paving the way for America’s B-2 bombing mission that obliterated Iran’s nuclear sites.

Other crewed aircraft will remain a central piece of an air superiority strategy. Air Force officials revealed recently that the highly anticipated F-47 fighter jet, manufactured by Boeing, is expected to be ready to fly by 2028.

The Air Force is testing Northrop Grumman’s B-21 Raider, a crucial piece of the service’s modernization plan. The company describes the B-21 as an “unrivaled stealth bomber,” one capable of operating in extreme weather conditions and virtually any environment.