SEOUL, South Korea — In the latest in a series of Indo-Pacific meetings, traveling President Trump was greeted by Emperor Naruhito at Tokyo’s Imperial Palace Monday as he arrived in Japan on a state visit.
Serious business begins Tuesday with a summit with newly minted Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who took office only last week, after mastering a political crisis when the ruling party’s coalition partner pulled out of their alliance.
The key issues to be discussed between Mr. Trump and Ms. Takaichi are expected to be similar to the predicted agenda items when he meets South Korean Prime Minister Lee Jae-myung on another state visit in South Korea on Wednesday — defense, tariffs and investment pledges in the U.S.
Mr. Trump will be in South Korea on the final leg of a regional tour that includes the Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit in Malaysia and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Korea’s Gyeongju. Korean officials have said U.S reports that Mr. Trump will visit Busan are erroneous.
APEC comprises 21 nations from the east, west and central Pacific — from Australia to the United States, from Papua New Guinea to Peru.
Key themes of the 2025 APEC Economic Leaders Week, from Oct. 27 to Nov. 1, are regional economic integration, effective and inclusive incorporation of artificial intelligence, and the demographic plunge affecting Sinic societies.
Ms. Takaichi and Mr. Lee want to cement their defense ties with Mr. Trump. Burden-sharing — providing financial support for U.S. forces stationed in both countries — U.S. arms purchases and force sizes and structures are potential discussion issues.
There is widespread expectation that alliance issues will not prove problematic. More concerns hang over pending talks on the details of both countries’ massive investment pledges for the U.S.: respectively, $550 billion for Japan and $350 billion for Korea.
While both nations’ exports to the U.S. are facing tariffs, their colossal investment pledges are, some believe, de facto acknowledgment that both Asian manufacturing powerhouses will continue to enjoy massive annual trade surpluses with America into the future.
Mr. Lee has a more pressing tariff issue than Ms. Takaichi. While Japanese automakers suffer 15% duties, Korean auto companies — which compete directly with their Japanese counterparts in the lucrative U.S. market — face 25% tariffs.
Though Seoul-Tokyo ties have notably tightened in the last three years, the neighbors are rivals.
Some Koreans fear that Mr. Trump will take a strong liking to Ms Takaichi — a hawkish conservative, with a tough stance on defense and immigration, who is the protege of the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, a close friend of Mr. Trump. There has been press speculation in Japan that the two leaders might visit Mr. Abe’s grave.
While the liberal Mr. Lee disarmed Mr. Trump in their first summit in July and remains firm on bilateral and trilateral security in the region, he is keen to upgrade relations with China. Some U.S. conservatives with Mr. Trump’s ear are criticizing ongoing legal challenges facing some South Korean Christian leaders, mired in the political aftermath of the impeachment of former President Yoon Suk Yeol.
Mr. Trump is spending more time in Japan than Korea, even though the APEC summit is being held in the latter country: Two nights and two days versus one night and two days.
“We have equal alliances,” complained a South Korean journalist. “It’s not fair.”
Following powwows with the two U.S. allies, Mr. Trump is expected to hold a high-stakes meeting in South Korea on Oct. 30 with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Eyes will be focused across the globe. Whether the leaders of the world’s two most powerful nations can hammer out a modus operandi in the security, trade and technical domains for the remainder of Mr. Trump’s term — there is no signal of any end to Mr. Xi’s rule — is of intense global interest.
Collateral fallout from American-Chinese competition, and related pressures to choose sides, are stress-testing business and political leaders worldwide.
However, one wild card looks unlikely to be played.
Intense speculation has surrounded a possible meet-and-greet in the Demilitarized Zone between Mr. Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
That could re-generate the surprise “bromance” the two leaders enjoyed in 2018-2019, when Mr. Trump became the first sitting U.S. president ever to meet a North Korean leader, on three occasions.
Despite chummy vibes, the two failed to achieve a breakthrough, with North Korean denuclearization protocols being the stumbling block.
The Biden administration did not continue Mr. Trump’s diplomatic outreach to Mr. Kim. Pyongyang’s relations with both Seoul and Washington are currently frozen.
Mr. Trump has told the media he would be prepared to extend his stay in the region if Mr. Kim fancies a chat. But a South Korean official on Monday downplayed the likelihood of that happening.
“The overall observation in our office is that, at the moment, there are no concrete signs that the meeting will be taking place,” said Oh Hyun-joo, the third deputy director of national security at the Office of the President, in a meeting with foreign reporters in Seoul. “If things happen, we always have a contingency plan, but at the moment, we don’t have any specific plan for this speculative event.”
Meanwhile, Gyeongju in Korea’s southeast is making final preparations to welcome APEC leaders and a reported 20,000 delegates.
A top regional official pulled no punches in declaring the significance of the week’s events.
“It is the most momentous occasion in 1,300 years since the unification of the Three Kingdoms,” Lee Cheol-woo, governor of North Gyeongsang Province, told the Dong-A Daily newspaper.
The city will open a “plaza of light,” and an aerial display, featuring 50,000 fireworks and 2,000 drones, will illuminate the night sky over the city.
Political visitors will be joined by global business leaders attending a “CEO Summit,” and Korea Inc., will be showcasing technologies including Samsung’s latest tri-fold smartphone and Hyundai’s hydrogen-fueled cars.
However, strains are apparent. The modest city — population 265,000 — lacks hotel space. Two cruise ships moored off the coast, 18 miles from Gyeongju, and a steel maker’s corporate training center in an adjacent city are prepared to handle overflow.
Ms. Heo admitted that getting all 21 member economies to agree on a joint communique at the summit’s conclusion will be a challenge.
“We will do our utmost to have a consensus text at the end,” she said. “We will do our very best to have a consensual meeting … we can coordinate with major parties to possibly manage the wording.”
Gyeongju officials hope that the events of the last APEC meeting held in Korea — in Busan, in 2015 — will not be repeated.
That year, thousands of farmers engaged in mass anti-globalization protests and attempted to storm a bridge leading to the summit venue.
Armed with iron pipes and wielding huge chains, they got through a makeshift defensive barrier of shipping containers topped with fire-hose positions. They were then hurled back by rank after rank of riot police, in body armor and armed with shields and batons, in a melee that resembled a medieval battle.
• Andrew Salmon can be reached at asalmon@washingtontimes.com.
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