Democrat Abigail Spanberger’s bid for Virginia governor is putting to the test whether voters agree with President Trump’s assertion that “we have the best economy we’ve ever had.”
Ms. Spanberger forcefully rejects that claim, linking widespread unease over the state’s slowing economy and rising cost of living to Trump policies — specifically, efforts to downsize the federal workforce, escalate trade conflicts, and curtail health care spending.
Jesse Ferguson, a Democratic strategist with deep roots in Virginia politics, says Ms. Spanberger’s message in her race against Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears is striking a chord with voters because it reflects the everyday challenges they face.
He said it could offer Democrats a blueprint for the 2026 midterm elections, when Republicans will be fighting to hold their congressional majorities and defend their record on the Trump-era economy.
“Trump is out there claiming it is the best economy ever, when no one believes that, and Sears is out there defending the damage that Trump is doing to people’s bottom line,” Mr. Ferguson said. “The more voters see the contrast, the worse it gets for Republicans because you can’t spin a grocery bill.”
Changing times
Just a year ago, the dynamic was reversed. Disillusioned by the Biden-Harris economic performance, many voters embraced Mr. Trump’s message, looking back at the economy during his first term with nostalgia and optimism.
Exit polls showed Mr. Trump handily defeated Vice President Kamala Harris among voters who were pessimistic about the economy.
But nine months into his second term, public confidence in his economic stewardship appears to be waning, despite his July prediction that his signature One Big Beautiful Bill would ignite an “economic renaissance.”
Mr. Trump doubled down this month, declaring, “We had the best economy in my first term, but we have an economy that is blowing it away.”
Voters seem less convinced. According to Gallup polling, 52% of Americans approved of his handling of the economy during his first term. But as of August, that figure had plunged to 37%.
“Since he came down the escalator [in 2015] branded as ‘The Apprentice’ guy, he has had strength on the economy. And between ‘Liberation Day,’ when he instituted tariffs, to July 3, when he cut Medicaid, Trump basically undid his single greatest strength,” Mr. Ferguson said.
Economic pessimism remains widespread. A recent Associated Press-NORC survey 68% of adults describe the state of the U.S. economy as poor or very poor.
Forty-seven percent lack confidence in their ability to pay an unexpected medical expense or find a good job if they wanted to, and 63% doubt they could afford a home.
While 59% of Americans report that their family’s financial situation is holding steady, 30% say they are falling behind and 10% say they are better off.
Pew Research surveys echo those concerns. In 2024, Americans were already deeply concerned about rising prices. Now, additional factors are shaping economic perceptions.
For instance, 16% of respondents cite Mr. Trump or the Republican Party as reasons for rating current economic conditions as only fair or poor, compared to 6% who blamed President Joseph R. Biden or the Democrats in 2024, according to Pew. And 12% specifically cite tariffs as a source of hardship.
The commonwealth’s economy
In Virginia, Alice Louise Kassens, dean of the school of business, economics, and analytics at Roanoke College, said the state’s economy has shown signs of cooling since the beginning of the year.
Ms. Kassens said the state’s unemployment rate, 3.6%, is as high as it has been in four years, consumer sentiment has dropped to one of its lowest points on record, and job openings have dipped.
“Virginia’s labor market is showing signs of strain, and consumers are clearly feeling it,” she said. “With sentiment near historic lows and inflation expectations still elevated, the outlook is cautious at best.”
That could spell trouble for Republicans, especially considering Virginia’s economy is outperforming many other states, with an unemployment rate below the national average of 4.3%.
Virginia Labor Secretary G. Bryan Slater told The Washington Times on Tuesday that more than 2,600 federal employees and about 3,100 federal contractors have filed for unemployment.
Still, there’s a silver lining. Mr. Slater noted that since Gov. Glenn Youngkin and Ms. Earle-Sears took office, Virginia has added 277,000 jobs and attracted $145 billion in capital investment. Major companies like Merck, AstraZeneca and the LEGO Group are among the contributors, and the Youngkin administration expects these projects to generate 85,000 jobs.
“We have done a good job of bringing business in here, which is creating additional jobs that will offset some of the loss that may have taken place at the federal level,” Mr. Slater said.
Still, a recent Washington Post survey showed that 38% of registered Virginia voters feel financially “worse off” since Mr. Trump took the oath of office. Just 24% reported being “better off,” while 37% reported no change.
Meanwhile, voters said their chief issue is the “cost of living” and gave higher marks to Mr. Youngkin, who is term-limited, than to Mr. Trump.
The Washington Times has reached out to the Earle-Sears campaign for comment.
Ms. Spanberger has sought to capitalize on voters’ economic concerns. Over the course of the campaign, she has relentlessly pledged to fight to make Virginia more affordable.
In a new Spanbeger campaign ad released this week, a narrator says Virginians are “hurting because of Trump policies that Sears backs.”
Over the summer, Ms. Spanberger unveiled an “Affordable Virginia” plan, promising to “pursue commonsense policies” that lower the cost of health care and energy bills and make housing more accessible.
Targeting Mr. Trump, she has warned his tariffs will cost Virginia families an extra $2,300 this year and criticized his efforts to lay off federal workers, raising concerns among the more than 140,000 government employees who call Virginia home.
She also highlighted an analysis by KFF, formerly the Kaiser Family Foundation, which found that the president’s One Big Beautiful Bill’s changes to Medicaid and Obamacare marketplaces “are projected to increase the uninsured population by roughly 350,000 people.”
The Democratic gubernatorial nominee also says the tax-and-spending law is contributing to rural hospital closures, after a Virginia health care provider pointed to the legislation as a factor in its consolidation decisions.
Earle-Sears hits back
In the closing weeks of the campaign, Ms. Spanberger has combined attacks highlighting Ms. Earle-Sears’ past anti-abortion remarks.
For her part, Ms. Earle-Sears has tried to steer the conversation toward concerns about transgender issues and the recent violent text messaging scandal involving Jay Jones, the Democratic nominee for attorney general.
The Republican gubernatorial nominee has also defended Mr. Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill, which includes Medicaid work requirements for able-bodied adults, saying it saves taxpayers money. She argues that the three Virginia hospitals slated to close were already struggling due to declining rural populations.
Ms. Earle-Sears also accuses Mr. Spanberger of playing “political football” with federal workers. She suggests the country is benefiting from “all the jobs that [Mr. Trump’s] repatriating here” through his tariffs.
She also touts the successes of the Youngkin administration, citing the new jobs, 15,000 new business startups and the elimination of thousands of business regulations.
During a recent appearance on “Fox News Sunday,” she celebrated the news that Eli Lilly is investing $5 billion in a new manufacturing facility in Virginia that is expected to create hundreds of jobs.
“They had 400 applications from 46 other states, and they chose, wait for it, Virginia,” Ms. Earle-Sears said. “And what was one of the reasons? Because they said they saw so many of the other businesses moving here. That’s because we have a great environment.”
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.
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