Democrat Abigail Spanberger’s bid for Virginia governor is testing whether voters agree with President Trump’s assertion that “we have the best economy we’ve ever had.”
Ms. Spanberger forcefully rejects the president’s claim. She links widespread unease over the state’s slowing economy and rising cost of living to Trump policies, specifically his efforts to downsize the federal workforce, escalate trade conflicts and curtail health care spending.
Jesse Ferguson, a Democratic strategist with deep roots in Virginia politics, said Ms. Spanberger’s message in her campaign against Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears strikes a chord with voters because it reflects their everyday challenges.
He said the issue could offer Democrats a blueprint for the 2026 midterm elections, when Republicans will fight to hold their congressional majorities and defend their record on the Trump-era economy.
“Trump is out there claiming it is the best economy ever, when no one believes that, and Sears is out there defending the damage that Trump is doing to people’s bottom line,” Mr. Ferguson said. “The more voters see the contrast, the worse it gets for Republicans because you can’t spin a grocery bill.”
Changing times
A year ago, the dynamic was reversed. Disillusioned by the Biden-Harris economic performance, many voters embraced Mr. Trump’s message and looked back at the economy during his first term with nostalgia and optimism.
Exit polls showed Mr. Trump handily defeated Vice President Kamala Harris among voters who were pessimistic about the economy.
Nine months into Mr. Trump’s second term, public confidence in his economic stewardship appears to be waning. In July, he predicted that his signature One Big Beautiful Bill Act would ignite an “economic renaissance.”
Mr. Trump doubled down this month by declaring, “We had the best economy in my first term, but we have an economy that is blowing it away.”
Voters seem less convinced. Gallup polling showed that 52% of Americans approved of Mr. Trump’s handling of the economy during his first term. As of August, that figure had plunged to 37%.
“Since he came down the escalator [in 2015] branded as ‘The Apprentice’ guy, he has had strength on the economy. And between ‘Liberation Day,’ when he instituted tariffs, to July 3, when he cut Medicaid, Trump basically undid his single greatest strength,” Mr. Ferguson said.
Economic pessimism is widespread. A recent Associated Press-NORC survey found that 68% of adults described the state of the U.S. economy as poor or very poor.
Forty-seven percent lacked confidence in their ability to pay an unexpected medical expense or find a good job if they wanted to, and 63% doubted they could afford a home.
Although 59% of Americans report that their family’s financial situation is steady, 30% say they are falling behind. Ten percent say they are better off.
Pew Research surveys echo those concerns. In 2024, Americans were deeply concerned about rising prices. Now, additional factors are shaping economic perceptions.
For instance, 16% of respondents cited Mr. Trump or the Republican Party for rating current economic conditions as only fair or poor, compared with 6% who blamed President Biden or the Democrats in 2024, according to Pew. Twelve percent specifically cited tariffs as a source of hardship.
Commonwealth’s economy
Alice Louise Kassens, dean of the school of business, economics, and analytics at Roanoke College, said Virginia’s economy has shown signs of cooling since the beginning of the year.
Ms. Kassens said the state’s unemployment rate, 3.6%, is as high as it has been in four years, consumer sentiment has dropped to one of its lowest points on record, and job openings have dipped.
“Virginia’s labor market is showing signs of strain, and consumers are clearly feeling it,” she said. “With sentiment near historic lows and inflation expectations still elevated, the outlook is cautious at best.”
That could spell trouble for Republicans, especially considering that Virginia is outperforming many other states, with an unemployment rate below the national average of 4.3%.
Virginia Labor Secretary G. Bryan Slater told The Washington Times on Tuesday that more than 2,600 federal employees and about 3,100 federal contractors have filed for unemployment benefits.
In a silver lining for Republicans, Mr. Slater noted that since Gov. Glenn Youngkin and Ms. Earle-Sears took office, Virginia has added 277,000 jobs and attracted $145 billion in capital investment. Major companies such as Merck, AstraZeneca and the LEGO Group are among the contributors, and the Youngkin administration expects these projects to generate 85,000 jobs.
“We have done a good job of bringing business in here, which is creating additional jobs that will offset some of the loss that may have taken place at the federal level,” Mr. Slater said.
Still, a recent Washington Post survey showed that 38% of registered Virginia voters feel financially “worse off” since Mr. Trump took the oath of office. Just 24% reported being “better off,” and 37% reported no change.
Voters said their chief issue is the “cost of living” and gave higher marks to Mr. Youngkin, who is term-limited, than to Mr. Trump.
The Washington Times has reached out to the Earle-Sears campaign for comment.
Ms. Spanberger has sought to capitalize on voters’ economic concerns. Over the course of the campaign, she has relentlessly pledged to fight to make Virginia more affordable.
In a Spanbeger campaign ad released this week, a narrator says Virginians are “hurting because of Trump policies that Sears backs.”
Over the summer, Ms. Spanberger announced an “Affordable Virginia” plan to “pursue commonsense policies” that lower the cost of health care and energy bills and make housing more accessible.
She said Mr. Trump’s tariffs would cost Virginia families an extra $2,300 this year and criticized his efforts to lay off federal workers, raising concerns among the more than 140,000 government employees who call Virginia home.
She highlighted an analysis by KFF, formerly the Kaiser Family Foundation, that found changes to Medicaid and Obamacare marketplaces in the president’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act “are projected to increase the uninsured population by roughly 350,000 people.”
The Democratic gubernatorial nominee says the tax-and-spending law is contributing to rural hospital closures. A Virginia health care provider pointed to the legislation as a factor in its consolidation decisions.
Earle-Sears hits back
In the closing weeks of the campaign, Ms. Spanberger has combined attacks highlighting Ms. Earle-Sears’ past anti-abortion remarks.
Ms. Earle-Sears has tried to steer the conversation toward concerns about transgender issues and the recent text messaging scandal involving Jay Jones, the Democratic nominee for attorney general.
The Republican gubernatorial nominee has defended the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which includes Medicaid work requirements for able-bodied adults, by saying it saves taxpayers money. She argues that the three Virginia hospitals slated to close were struggling because of declining rural populations.
Ms. Earle-Sears accuses Ms. Spanberger of playing “political football” with federal workers. She suggests that the nation benefits from “all the jobs that [Mr. Trump is] repatriating here” through his tariffs.
She touts the Youngkin administration’s successes, including the creation of jobs, 15,000 new business startups and the elimination of thousands of business regulations.
During a recent appearance on “Fox News Sunday,” she celebrated the news that Eli Lilly is investing $5 billion in a new manufacturing facility in Virginia that is expected to create hundreds of jobs.
“They had 400 applications from 46 other states, and they chose, wait for it, Virginia,” Ms. Earle-Sears said. “And what was one of the reasons? Because they said they saw so many of the other businesses moving here. That’s because we have a great environment.”
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.
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