SEOUL, South Korea — Japan’s parliament voted in its first female prime minister Tuesday, but neither liberals nor feminists are applauding the triumph of archconservative Sanae Takaichi.
Ms. Takaichi, 64, is a take-no-prisoners right-winger whose political role model is the late British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, from whom she borrows the nickname “The Iron Lady.” A hobbyist rock drummer and motorcycle rider, Ms. Takaichi is a hardliner on defense and suspicious of immigration.
The protege of the late Shinzo Abe, Japan’s longest-serving prime minister, she looks well-primed for imminent meetings with U.S. President Trump, a close friend of Abe.
Despite her gender, her conservative views extend to social matters. She opposes married women retaining maiden names; is anti same-sex marriage; and insists that the imperial family succession must proceed through the male line.
“Her being a woman is a travesty for Japanese women,” said Haruko Satoh, a regional relations expert at the Osaka School for Public Policy.
A Tokyo-based analyst, who requested anonymity in order to speak frankly, differed.
“It matters for her like it mattered for Thatcher,” he said. “Having clawed her way to the top of the pile, she is less inclined to take s—- from people. … An internal [party] revolution could happen, but she won’t go quietly.”
The last three Liberal Democratic Party prime ministers were all unseated from within the party, but Ms. Takaichi’s political instincts are well-honed.
Her ascent, said the analyst, represents “a right-wing parliamentary coup to push out [party] moderates,” including the last three prime ministers, all from the LDP’s softcore.
Party power brokers lost faith in the premiership of party centrist Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, setting up a leadership race, which Ms. Takaichi won on Oct. 4 . That forced Tuesday’s parliamentary vote.
She suffered a shock withdrawal from the ruling coalition by Komeito, a Buddhist party, on Oct. 10, but engineered a new coalition with the center-right minority party Ippon Ishin No Kai (“Japan Innovation Party”) on Oct. 20.
Today, she captured a larger-than-expected chunk of votes, winning 237 in the Diet’s more powerful Lower House. Yoshikoko Noda, head of the leftist main opposition, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, won 149.
Confusingly, Tuesday’s vote was for the premiership; it was not a general election for seats.
That means she continues to lead a minority government.
The Lower House comprises 465 seats. Of those, 196 are occupied by the LDP and 35 by Ishin, leaving the coalition with 231, two short of a majority.
A diplomatic source cited Tokyo rumors that say if her polling numbers are solid, she could swiftly call a general election to recapture a majority.
The LDP encompasses a wide political spectrum from moderate to hard right. Ms. Takaichi’s new Cabinet includes some former rivals.
Her main competitor for the party leadership, Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, was named defense minister. Though he lacks security chops, his State-side experiences — a master’s degree from Columbia University and work at Washington think tank CSIS — look useful in managing U.S. relations.
Mr. Ishiba’s chief trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, who earned national kudos for handling tough tariff negotiations with Washington, was named economy and trade minister.
“Her choice of ministers seems middle of the road, playing safe,” said Ms. Satoh. “If she does not waste time reviving constitutional revision or Yasukuni visits, she might just survive without causing too much diplomatic trouble.”
Visits by politicians to Tokyo’s Yasukuni Shrine, where war dead and war criminals are enshrined, inflame Japan’s neighbors. Ms. Takaichi has frequently visited, but no sitting prime minister has visited since 2013.
The late Abe’s ambition to rewrite Japan’s pacifist constitution to enable military freedom of action hit walls but remains a conservative touchstone.
Diplomatically, Ms. Takaichi has imminent engagements, including the Association of Southeast Asia Leaders’ Meeting in Malaysia on Oct. 26-28; an anticipated two-night visit to Tokyo by Mr. Trump; and then the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea on Oct. 31 and Nov. 1.
Experts credit her nous during recent, fraught weeks.
“Putting the coalition together was not guaranteed; she needed to find a partner and common ground,” said Brad Glosserman, an Asia-based adviser to the Pacific Forum, a nonprofit institute based in Hawaii. “That took some real work.”
There is much to discuss with Mr. Trump, and she might just kick-start matters on the right track.
“Takaichi was very close to Abe, so maybe her best bet is to go with Abe’s wife to visit Abe’s grave,” said the analyst. “That’s not official, but people here are talking about it.”
The two are expected to sign an update to bilateral defense cost-sharing, but Ms. Takaichi may have to field other demands. In 2023, Japan agreed to massively upgrade defense spending, but it remains under 2% of GDP, and questions hover over where the budget will come from.
Experts don’t expect Ms. Takaichi to roll over for Mr. Trump on defense, trade or investment.
“If she gets into an argument with him, it will be fun to watch,” the analyst said. “She’s not the retiring type!”
Yet even she is unlikely to play the nuclear option if Mr. Trump presses hard.
“Japanese don’t use the leverage they have — like kicking the Americans out of Okinawa, which would make the Pentagon really angry with Trump,” the analyst continued. “Japanese politicians can’t open their mouths without saying, ‘The U.S. alliance is the cornerstone of Japan’s defense.’”
Okinawa is critical for Taiwan’s defense, a matter on which Ms. Takaichi takes a tough line, but some fear she may return to a hard line toward South Korea — Seoul-Tokyo relations are currently excellent — and toward China.
“Her gut — that conservative nationalism — will serve her well on Taiwan, but those same instincts have the potential to be problematic with China and [South Korea],” said Mr. Glosserman. “She has indicated that she is going to be strategic, not political, in dealing with [South Korea] … expect friction with China.”
When it comes to Japan’s slow-burn crises — demographic decline and economic stagnation — pundits are downbeat.
“No Japanese politician right now has the capital to bring about the tough changes required,” said Mr. Glosserman.
• Andrew Salmon can be reached at asalmon@washingtontimes.com.
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