SEOUL, South Korea — The Japanese parliament voted in its first female prime minister Tuesday, but neither liberals nor feminists are applauding the triumph of hard-line conservative Sanae Takaichi.
Ms. Takaichi, 64, is a take-no-prisoners right-winger whose political role model is former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, from whom she borrows the nickname “The Iron Lady.” A hobbyist rock drummer and motorcycle rider, Ms. Takaichi is a hard-liner on defense and suspicious of immigration.
The protege of Shinzo Abe, Japan’s longest-serving prime minister, looks well-primed for imminent meetings with President Trump, a close friend of Abe.
Despite her gender, her conservative views extend to social matters. She opposes maiden names for married women and same-sex marriage and insists that the imperial family succession must proceed through the male line.
“Her being a woman is a travesty for Japanese women,” said Haruko Satoh, a regional relations expert at the Osaka School of International Public Policy.
A Tokyo-based analyst, who requested anonymity to speak frankly, differed.
“It matters for her like it mattered for Thatcher,” he said. “Having clawed her way to the top of the pile, she is less inclined to take s—- from people. … An internal [party] revolution could happen, but she won’t go quietly.”
The past three Liberal Democratic Party prime ministers were unseated from within the party, but Ms. Takaichi’s political instincts are well-honed.
Her ascent, the analyst said, represents “a right-wing parliamentary coup to push out [party] moderates,” including the past three prime ministers, all from the LDP’s soft core.
Party power brokers lost faith in centrist Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, setting up the Oct. 4 leadership race that Ms. Takaichi won. That forced Tuesday’s parliamentary vote.
She sustained a shock withdrawal from the ruling coalition by Komeito, a Buddhist party, on Oct. 10, but engineered a new coalition with the center-right minority party Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japan Innovation Party) on Monday.
On Tuesday, she captured a larger-than-expected chunk of votes, winning 237 in the Diet’s more powerful lower house. Yoshihiko Noda, head of the leftist main opposition, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, won 149.
The vote was for the premiership, not a general election for seats.
That means Ms. Takaichi continues to lead a minority government.
The lower house of the Diet comprises 465 seats. Of those, 196 are occupied by the LDP and 35 by Ishin, leaving the coalition with 231, two short of a majority.
A diplomatic source cited Tokyo rumors that Ms. Takaichi could swiftly call a general election to recapture a majority if her polling numbers are solid.
The LDP encompasses a political spectrum from moderate to hard right. Ms. Takaichi’s new Cabinet includes some former rivals.
Her main competitor for the party leadership, Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, was named defense minister. Though he lacks security chops, his experiences in America — a master’s degree from Columbia University and work at the Washington think tank Center for Strategic & International Studies — look useful in managing U.S. relations.
Mr. Ishiba’s chief trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, who earned national kudos for handling tough tariff negotiations with Washington, was named economy and trade minister.
“Her choice of ministers seems middle of the road, playing safe,” Ms. Satoh said. “If she does not waste time reviving constitutional revision or Yasukuni visits, she might just survive without causing too much diplomatic trouble.”
Politicians’ visits to the Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo, where war dead and war criminals are enshrined, inflame Japan’s neighbors. Ms. Takaichi has frequently visited, but no sitting prime minister has visited since 2013.
Abe’s ambition to rewrite Japan’s pacifist constitution to enable military freedom of action hit walls but remains a conservative touchstone.
Ms. Takaichi has imminent diplomatic engagements, including the summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Malaysia from Sunday through Tuesday, Mr. Trump’s anticipated two-night visit to Tokyo, and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea on Oct. 31 and Nov. 1.
Experts credit her nous during recent, fraught weeks.
“Putting the coalition together was not guaranteed; she needed to find a partner and common ground,” said Brad Glosserman, an Asia-based adviser to the Pacific Forum, a nonprofit institute based in Hawaii. “That took some real work.”
She has much to discuss with Mr. Trump and might kick-start matters on the right track.
“Takaichi was very close to Abe, so maybe her best bet is to go with Abe’s wife to visit Abe’s grave,” the analyst said. “That’s not official, but people here are talking about it.”
Mr. Trump and Ms. Takaichi are expected to sign an update to bilateral defense cost-sharing, but Ms. Takaichi may have to field other demands. Japan agreed to upgrade defense spending massively in 2023, but it remains less than 2% of gross domestic product, and questions linger over budget sourcing.
Experts don’t expect Ms. Takaichi to roll over for Mr. Trump on defense, trade or investment.
“If she gets into an argument with him, it will be fun to watch,” the analyst said. “She’s not the retiring type.”
Yet even Ms. Takaichi is unlikely to play the nuclear option if Mr. Trump presses hard.
“Japanese don’t use the leverage they have, like kicking the Americans out of Okinawa, which would make the Pentagon really angry with Trump,” the analyst said. “Japanese politicians can’t open their mouths without saying, ‘The U.S. alliance is the cornerstone of Japan’s defense.’”
Okinawa is critical for Taiwan’s defense. Ms. Takaichi takes a tough line on the matter, but some fear she may return to a hard line toward South Korea — Seoul-Tokyo relations are currently excellent — and toward China.
“Her gut — that conservative nationalism — will serve her well on Taiwan, but those same instincts have the potential to be problematic with China and [South Korea],” Mr. Glosserman said. “She has indicated that she is going to be strategic, not political, in dealing with [South Korea]. … Expect friction with China.”
The pundits are downbeat about Japan’s slow-burning crises, such as demographic decline and economic stagnation.
“No Japanese politician right now has the capital to bring about the tough changes required,” Mr. Glosserman said.
• Andrew Salmon can be reached at asalmon@washingtontimes.com.
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