OPINION:
If America’s babies follow the political beliefs of their parents, we are in for a conservative future.
Although some children forsake their parents’ political and religious beliefs as they grow up, many tend to fall in line with Mom and Dad. If that is the case, the political left is in trouble in about 18 years hence.
A recent report published by the Institute for Family Studies, based on records from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, found a strong relationship between the counties that voted for President Trump in the last election and higher fertility rates.
This is not new, and cultural issues are in play beyond presidential elections. The gap continues to widen, from an 8% variance in fertility between “red” and “blue” counties in 2012 to 26% in 2024. As the report shows, the rate of voting Republican and having more children has risen by 85%.
Finally, the Pew Research Center reported in February that the fertility rate for religious Americans is 2.2 children per respondent compared with 1.8 for nonreligious respondents to its survey. Atheists and agnostics had the lowest fertility rates, at 1.5 and 1.4 children, respectively.
Why is this happening? I would venture to say it is because conservatives, first of all, tend to be people of faith, and people of faith value marriage and the family in a way that many without faith do not.
In addition, research has shown that people involved in faith communities have a built-in support system that encourages families.
Kasey Buckles, an economist at the University of Notre Dame, states, “One thing that faith communities do for their members is provide support systems that make it easier to raise children. If young people are less likely to be a part of faith communities for whatever reason, then they may also find it too costly to have children without that support — especially if other institutions like neighborhoods or public education are also weak.”
For instance, looking at CDC data for 2023, the Institute for Family Studies found that the 10 states with the highest fertility rates are “red” states, with South Dakota and Nebraska leading the way. Meanwhile, the 10 states with the lowest fertility rates are all “blue,” with Oregon, Rhode Island and Vermont in the bottom three.
In states where religious faith is strong and encouraged, young couples are having children. Faith that values every human life and gives one purpose beyond oneself motivates young couples to have children and form strong families.
Conversely, in the more secular states, rather than practice the personal sacrifice needed for parenting, young adults are either not marrying or choosing not to have children when they do marry. Even couples who wed are more likely to seek what they perceive to be personal fulfillment over children or see children as a detriment to their “happiness” or as a “threat” to the planet.
It makes sense that those who practice faith in their daily lives and wish to instill that faith and its accompanying values in their children are more likely to vote for laws and candidates that affirm their faith and values.
Thus, it is no surprise that if those who are more likely to vote for conservative candidates and positions successfully raise their children in the faith, those children will one day vote for similar laws and candidates. If that is the case, America will become increasingly conservative as the number of future conservative voters outweighs the number of future liberal voters, many of whom do not have any religious association at all.
It is through these children being born right now to religious parents that I believe we will start to see a national revival of faith, family and sacrifice as these children mature into adults. That is encouraging to me, and I believe it is good news for our nation as we see a new generation affirm, rather than disparage, the values that made America the land of the free and the home of the brave.
• Timothy S. Goeglein is vice president of external and government relations for Focus on the Family. He served as special assistant to President George W. Bush and as a deputy director of the White House Office of Public Liaison.
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