OPINION:
Voters in Virginia and New Jersey will send a clear message next month when they elect a new governor in each state. The results will provide a preview of what to expect in the 2026 midterm elections.
Historically, the party out of the White House wins the race for governor in these elections, which come just a year after the presidential election. In 2021, New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy became the first candidate of the same party as the incumbent president since 1985 to win and the first Democrat in New Jersey to be reelected as governor since 1977. That said, he barely defeated the Republican candidate, Jack Ciattarelli.
The 2025 race in New Jersey is shaping up to be just as close as four years ago. The Democrat running is U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill, and the Republican, once again, is Mr. Ciattarelli. The latest polls show Ms. Sherrill with a single-digit lead. In addition, Gallup shows that more than 70% of Americans polled disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job. That’s a bad sign for Ms. Sherrill.
High utility costs have emerged as a major issue in the race. Ads for Mr. Ciattarelli blame Mr. Murphy, suggesting that Ms. Sherrill would be “more of the same, but worse.” The theme is gaining traction among voters struggling to pay their bills.
A win by Mr. Ciattarelli would send a strong signal to conservative candidates to stay focused on high prices as they enter the 2026 midterm campaign season. This is consistent with polling of younger voters conducted by the Young America’s Foundation, which shows that the top issues remain the cost of living and the economy.
In Virginia, a new poll shows that Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears has narrowed the gap and is now just 3 percentage points behind former U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger in the gubernatorial race. Ms. Earle-Sears, elected in 2021 alongside Glenn Youngkin, faces a significant fundraising disadvantage compared with her Democratic opponent.
Four years ago, pundits all but gave up on the chances of a Republican winning again in Virginia. President Biden carried the commonwealth by more than 10 points in the 2020 election. Many suggested that it had become solidly blue because of Northern Virginia.
Mr. Youngkin was an effective candidate with a nontraditional background who siphoned support from the Washington suburbs. At the same time, former Gov. Terry McAuliffe overplayed his hand and gave Mr. Youngkin a political gift during a debate late in the campaign when he said, “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach.”
Within a day, that quote was included in ads against Mr. McAuliffe. Parents, including those who considered themselves independents and even some discerning Democrats, were upset. It was a turning point in a campaign that Mr. Youngkin won with 50.58% of the vote.
Many of the same issues have resurfaced this year, with major concerns about illegal immigration and crime, as well as men in women’s sports and boys using girls’ bathrooms and locker rooms in schools. These issues have affected some suburban voters previously trending toward Democrats.
Still, it is going to be a tough race. Like New Jersey, history suggests that the candidate in Virginia who belongs to the same party as the incumbent president will have difficulty winning. It has happened only one time since 1973.
The shutdown of the federal government will have an impact on the race. In the past, it might have been a negative for the Republican candidate. Interestingly, the public seems to be blaming Democrats. This has the potential to be a major factor.
More than anywhere else in the country, voters in Northern Virginia will feel the pain if the shutdown drags on too long. If Ms. Earle-Sears can connect Ms. Spanberger to the Democrats in Congress who are forcing the shutdown, she might have enough leverage to jump up in the race.
Both races will be extremely close and provide real insights for next November. In 2009, Bob McDonnell won a major victory in Virginia. That same year, Chris Christie pulled an upset in New Jersey. Republicans went on to major wins in races for governor, Congress and state legislative races in 2010.
History shows that wins for Democrats in New Jersey and Virginia are to be expected. A Republican win in either state would deal a big blow to liberal hopes for a blue wave in 2026.
If Republicans carry both states, it will signify a major reconfiguration of American politics. All eyes should be focused on these important elections on Nov. 4. They constitute a significant preview to the 2026 midterms.
• Scott Walker is president of Young America’s Foundation and served as the 45th governor of Wisconsin.
Please read our comment policy before commenting.