Iran prepares to counteract U.N.-backed sanctions

Western powers celebrated this month after reimposing U.N.-backed sanctions on Iran, but experts say that without a multilateral pressure campaign, the Islamic Republic may skirt the punishment.

The E3 nations of France, Germany and the U.K. activated the snapback mechanism of 2015’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action after accusing Iran of failing to live up to its responsibilities under the agreement. The sanctions bring arms embargoes, restrictions on diplomatic travel, asset freezes and severe limits on Iran’s nuclear program.

However, some argue the new sanctions do little to curb Iran’s oil sales, which have been its primary source of profit for years. 

China, one of Iran’s key allies, imports around 1.5 million barrels of Iranian oil a day. The exports bring in billions of dollars for Tehran, which it uses to finance defense projects and foreign terror operations.

The U.S. and others have used sanctions to hurt Iranian oil profits for years, but have done little to stem the flow. Recent surges in sales have some questioning how much snapback sanctions will help. 

“There was a spike in September; it’s close to 2 million barrels a day. That’s not a sign of sanctions success against the Islamic Republic,” Behnam Ben Taleblu, Iran program senior director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said. “So the question for me is to what degree, now that you have the international legal cover for more economic pressure against the Islamic Republic, does that animate Washington’s will or desire to really crack the whip when it comes to maximum pressure?”

Mr. Taleblu added that Iran hasn’t displayed any willingness to change its oil export strategy, despite increased sanctions pressure from the U.N. and U.S.

Iran exported 587 million barrels in 2024, up 11% from 2023, bringing in $43 billion, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

As part of President Trump’s maximum pressure campaign against Tehran, the U.S. Treasury Department recently announced new sanctions in October targeting Chinese-based refineries and international shadow fleets, or unregistered vessels that transmit illicit materials for sanctioned countries. 

The revenue from oil sales through China could be used to purchase weapons and defensive technologies from Russia, Iran’s other major partner. While snapback does include a robust arms embargo, which prohibits countries from selling or transferring weapons to sanctioned countries, experts say Russian aggression in Ukraine may make Moscow feel invincible.

“Russia believes it can absorb this war and keep it going. So from their perspective, they continued their war. They have not really negotiated or even given an inch to [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelenskyy, and on top of that, they’re provoking other NATO allies, and they didn’t really meet any repercussions anyway. So selling a couple of weapons to Iran would not be the main concern of Europe at that point,” Janatan Sayeh, a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said.

Future Russia-Iran collaboration was confirmed on Oct. 2 with the activation of the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. The agreement includes provisions for cooperative defense development programs and joint training initiatives. 

The partnership also includes provisions for collaboration on nuclear development, something the snapback sanctions seek to prevent. Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities were destroyed in its 12-day war with Israel and the U.S. in June, and Tehran has vowed to rebuild them. Snapback could make securing necessary parts difficult for Iran. 

Richard Nephew, program director at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, said the U.S. and Europe need to be aligned on a sanctions strategy if they hope to prevent a nuclear-powered Iran. 

“I think the bigger impact is gonna be on the proliferation side, potentially making it harder for Iran to get bits and pieces of nuclear kit,” Mr. Nephew said. “But you don’t have a big U.N. infrastructure the way you did in the past, so that makes it hard to imagine you’re gonna have dramatic effects now, unless the U.S., Europeans and others are really willing to step up enforcement.”

The U.S. and Israel have long maintained that Iran can never achieve a nuclear weapon and see Tehran’s enrichment sites as stepping stones to nukes. Both nations have made it clear that if Iran rebuilds its program, they will initiate more bombing.

Iran, for its part, has said it has no intention of building a nuclear bomb and that its nuclear program is purely for civilian purposes. 

Indeed, despite efforts to increase the heat on Iran following the imposition of snapback, some worry that Washington has adopted a complacent attitude toward Iran.

“I don’t see any kind of public commentary or public interest or public debate on this, which leads me to worry that this can foster the sense of victory that already exists and, over time, could leave our allies hanging,” Mr. Taleblu said. “Snapback is not one and done. Now it’s about enforcement. I think there certainly is the will to be seen as winning, multilateralizing the gains of maximum pressure, but aligning the ways, means and ends on how to do that, I think there are more questions, particularly on the American side of the Atlantic.”