OPINION:
Right before the most recent government shutdown/lapse/whatever, both sides were supremely confident that they finally had the other guys by the short hairs and would achieve ultimate and unalloyed victory. The Republicans were finally advocating for a clean extension of spending authority. The Democrats were finally fighting on terrain (health care and, more specifically, the Affordable Care Act) on which they had an advantage over the Republicans.
Like many wars, both sides were absolutely certain that the conflict would be short and decisive and end in their triumph. Unfortunately for both sides, like many wars, government shutdowns are muddy, messy, pointless affairs that no one really wins.
Indeed, the survey data associated with shutdowns are themselves a dog’s breakfast. Usually, the Republicans suffer a bit more, probably because those who are really invested in government functions tend to be Democrats. The reality is that voters typically blame both sides in about equal measure. Small wonder. Almost every family and business on the planet finds a way to settle on budgets and make ends meet (or least come close). The math is just not that complicated.
Moreover, the entire enterprise has a very strong Kabuki theater vibe to it. Most of the government remains open, most of the cash (perhaps as much as 80%) is disbursed and Grandma gets her check. Federal workers get a nice paid vacation, irrespective of what warnings might be made during the pendency of the shutdown.
In this particular variation, the team at the Office of Management and Budget is ready to start laying off federal workers: the bombers are at fail-safe. Yet somehow, the orders to launch the attack have not been given. They won’t be; it is not in the script.
The voters also know that this shutdown and all its accoutrements won’t change a single blessed thing with respect to our relatively dire financial situation. The federal government spent about $6.75 trillion in fiscal year 2024; it will probably spend about $7 trillion in fiscal year 2025. The federal deficit in fiscal year 2024? About $1.8 trillion. Our federal deficit in fiscal year 2025? About $1.8 trillion.
We — you, me and the nation — will be $40 trillion in debt pretty soon.
Will extending the Affordable Care Act tax credits for premiums make that any better? No, it will not. Are the ACA tax credits an egregious scam on the taxpaying public? They absolutely are. Does that cash wind up in the pockets of insurance companies? You know it does.
Despite the urgency of our financial situation, none of that really matters. The president has made it clear that he plans to negotiate some sort of settlement with respect to the ACA tax credits, which, as a practical matter, means that no matter how egregious and regressive they might be, those credits are going to survive in some form.
What, then, is the purpose of the current funding lapse? I’m not really sure; I’m not entirely certain that those directly involved know. What can be said with some confidence is that the pause or lapse or shutdown will not change our fiscal trajectory (which is currently catastrophic), nor will it change the trajectory of the ACA tax credits.
President Trump will eventually negotiate something with the Democrats that ends this shutdown, provides for the 2026 appropriations and extends the ACA tax credits. The administration should get on with it and save us all from the drama.
• Michael McKenna is a contributing editor at The Washington Times.
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