Japan’s ruling coalition implodes days before prime minister vote

SEOUL, South Korea — Japan lurched toward political uncertainty Friday as the newly elected leader of its ruling party lost the support of her coalition partner, just days before the parliament is set to vote on the country’s next prime minister.

A mere six days after Sanae Takaichi won the Liberal Democratic Party’s leadership race, the head of Buddhist Party Komeito announced his party’s departure from the ruling camp — breaking an on-again, off-again political alliance that had lasted 26 years.

Ms. Takaichi said the breakup was “unilateral” and called it “extremely regrettable.”

She is believed to be holding an emergency meeting with senior LDP officials late Friday night.

Japan is America’s leading Indo-Pacific ally, with more U.S. troops stationed there than in any other ally. Now, its politics — long seen as stable, even dull — are looking unusually intriguing.

In the past two elections for the upper and lower houses of the parliament, called the Diet, the LDP-Komeito coalition lost its long-held majorities. That has two ramifications.

One, it requires the ruling party or coalition to gain the cooperation of minority parties during legislative sessions.

Two, it means that the ruling party’s leader is not guaranteed to win the prime minister’s post.

The latter point presents a very immediate problem for Ms. Takaichi, who won the LDP’s leadership after then-party leader and sitting Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation Sept. 7.

An extraordinary session of the Diet to vote on the country’s next prime minister had been expected on Oct. 15.

The vote cannot be delayed for long.

Imminent engagements awaiting Japan’s leader are the Association of Southeast Asia Leaders’ Meeting in Malaysia on Oct. 26-28, the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit in South Korea on Oct. 31-Nov.1, and an expected Tokyo visit by President Trump after APEC.

Though the LDP retains the largest single bloc of seats in the Diet, the implosion of its partnership with Komeito makes Ms. Takaichi’s future politicking much more difficult.

She is a staunch conservative with traditionalist views who represents the rightward wing of the center-right LDP, raising doubts about her ability to build consensus.

Her political idol is the late British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, who famously rejected compromise, saying, “The lady is not for turning.”

Ms. Takaichi’s political inflexibility appeared confirmed after she failed to mend fences with Komeito Party Leader Tetsuo Saito in three meetings over the past week, the last being on Friday.

Mr. Saito said after the meeting that Komeito will vote for him as prime minister in the upcoming Diet vote.

The widespread expectation is that Ms. Takaichi will reach out to one or more of the minority conservative parties in the Diet, likely Ishin No Kai (“Japan Innovation Party”) or the Democratic Party for the People, to partner with the LDP.

The House of Representatives, the Diet’s more powerful lower house, comprises 465 seats, meaning 233 are needed for a majority. Of those, 196 are occupied by the LDP and 148 by the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party. Ishin has 38 and the DPFP has 27. Komeito has 24, while the far-right “Japanese First” party Sanseito has three.

If Ms. Takaichi lures Ishin into a partnership, she would have reestablished a slim coalition majority of 234 seats.

If she successfully courts the DPFP, she would not gain a majority, but would increase friendly seat numbers over that of the coalition that split.

But with Komeito now out of play, the negotiating leverage of any party she approaches has increased significantly.

Adding to the uncertainty, Japanese media are reporting on a possible alliance forming between the rival CDP and the DPFP, to champion DPFP leader Yuichiro Tamaki as a challenger to Ms. Takaichi.

It was widely known that Komeito, which takes a soft line on China, was uncomfortable with some of Ms. Takaichi’s more hawkish positions.

Those include her frequent visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, where war criminals are enshrined, and her tough stance toward immigrants.

However, it was Komeito’s demand that the LDP — which has been roiled by a slush fund scandal that turned public attitudes against the coalition — reform its practices for receiving corporate donations that led to Friday’s political divorce.