Residents of conservative states have long loved to gripe about New Yorkers invading their territory, so it has been more than a little striking that Republican governors openly welcome Big Apple residents who might want to flee before Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani forges the city into a socialist paradise.
New Hampshire Gov. Kelly Ayotte last week tapped her campaign funds to send a billboard truck to Manhattan to urge businesses to uproot and head north to her state.
In Tennessee, Gov. Bill Lee made his pitch for New Yorkers to see what his state has to offer in music, food and “our business-friendly environment.”
“If you’re looking for an opportunity, you’ve found one in the state of Tennessee,” he said in a video appeal.
In Florida, long a popular destination for fleeing New Yorkers, Gov. Ron DeSantis said he is ready to take any of the city’s landmarks that Mr. Mamdani may not want, such as a statue of Christopher Columbus.
“I’ve already said if they take that from Manhattan, we’ll take it in Florida. Hey, if they want to put the Statue of Liberty in Lake Okeechobee, we’ll get that done as well,” the governor said on Fox News.
President Trump, a New York expat who has moved to Florida, said he expects others to follow.
Whether the exodus will happen is anyone’s guess, and the early data is mixed.
A Miami developer told Fox News Digital last week about a monthslong surge in New Yorkers signing contracts in his area, or about twice the volume from a year earlier. He attributed it to the election.
Mansion Global, which reports on the luxury home market, said New York remains hot.
Still, some New Yorkers appear poised to consider relocation.
In polling ahead of the election, JL Partners figured that 765,000 of the city’s 8.4 million residents were ready to leave if Mr. Mamdani won. Two million more said they would consider a move, according to a report in The Daily Mail.
Mr. Mamdani’s supporters were quick to point out that people made the same sorts of declarations when Mr. Trump won the White House. Save for some high-profile cases, it didn’t appear to pan out.
E.J. McMahon, a fellow at the Manhattan Institute who studies the city’s migration patterns, said New York’s population is always churning and the rougher the push factors, the more people are likely to pack up.
He compared it to a poker game where the bid is rising.
“There are always going to be people saying, ‘OK, I’m out,’” he said.
Mr. McMahon said two groups of people have traditionally emigrated from the city. One is people starting families, and the other comprises retirees.
The families usually like to stay close and move to the New York exurbs or New Jersey or, if they have the financial means, to Connecticut.
Mr. Mamdani has stormed the political world with his easy mayoral win. He has energized left-wing Democrats and delighted Republicans who say they expect his policies to fail the country’s largest city.
He wants to raise taxes on corporations and his wealthier constituents and spend the money on universal child care, housing rental support, government-run supermarkets and a free city bus system.
He has also proposed to nearly double the city’s hourly minimum wage to $30 by the end of the decade.
To win the tax increases, he will need approval from the state. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, a fellow Democrat, has rejected the income tax hike, saying it would drive out state residents.
Mr. McMahon said higher taxes is a factor but isn’t the only one fueling decisions about whether to leave or stay.
Other states’ incentive packages may sway businesses already on edge and considering a move, but Mr. McMahon said that when it comes to families’ decisions, “What other governors do matters not a whit.”
It’s largely a matter of Mr. Mamdani and his policies.
Mr. Mamdani needs to be concerned about chasing away the million-dollar incomes that support its tax base.
“If his policies reverse recent progress on quality of life and crime, if it does things to make this city less attractive to live and work, all under a cover that says you are a bad rich person, it’s wrong that you exist — that will lead to further erosion,” Mr. McMahon said.
According to internet speculation, however, if Mr. Mamdani’s ideas succeed, more people will move into the city to take advantage of the support and subsidized services the mayor-elect wants to offer, or to show solidarity with the experiment.
“Time to move to New York,” said one poster on Reddit’s LGBTQ forum.
• Stephen Dinan can be reached at sdinan@washingtontimes.com.
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