Widespread discontent over inflation and the economy led to big election wins for Democrats this year. Although economists are urging patience, saying it takes time for prices to drop, pollsters caution that the Nov. 4 results are a red flag for President Trump and the Republican Party.
Democrats won gubernatorial contests in New Jersey and Virginia after their candidates pledged to address the high costs of living and accused Mr. Trump of enacting policies that reward billionaires and drive up costs for everyday Americans.
In New York, Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist, won the mayoral race on a platform of lowering the cost of living in America’s most expensive city by further taxing the rich.
Exit polls told the same story: Voters were concerned about affordability, and their patience was wearing thin with Mr. Trump’s efforts to fix the problem.
It was a stunning reversal. Voter dissatisfaction with inflation led to Mr. Trump’s election to the White House last year after it reached record levels under President Biden.
Kendall Witmer, rapid response director for the Democratic National Committee, said the election results showed that the American people were “p——- off” about high prices.
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“Americans are staring down the reality of a holiday season marred by inflation, higher prices and rising unemployment caused by Donald Trump’s chaotic economic policies,” Ms. Witmer said. “Democrat candidates across the country were victorious on Election Day because Democrats met Americans at their kitchen table, fighting to lower costs like groceries, rent and electric bills while Trump is leading the country into his gilded recession.”
Steve Mitchell, a pollster in Michigan, said the exit polling revealed that Mr. Trump has his work cut out for him. The nation’s focus is shifting to next year’s midterm elections, and Mr. Trump hopes Republicans can hold on to their slim majorities in the House and Senate.
“It’s going to take a lot of hard work, and he’s going to have to show that the economy is strong, and it’s hard to bring [prices] back down again,” he said. “You’ve got people still angry about the inflation that occurred in the Biden administration, and that’s what you saw in the polls.”
More than half of Virginia voters said the economy was their most important issue, and those who ranked it as their top issue supported Democrat Abigail Spanberger by more than 24 percentage points over Republican candidate Winsome Earle-Sears in the gubernatorial election, according to ABC News exit polling.
Just 1 in 10 Virginia voters said they were “getting ahead,” and about 25% said they were “falling behind.”
High state tax rates and the economy were the top two issues among New Jersey voters, who sent Democrat Mikie Sherrill to a surprise double-digit win over Republican Jack Ciattarelli.
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Mr. Mamdani won a decisive victory over former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo by campaigning on affordability, which was ranked as the most important issue to city residents by far. He overwhelmingly captured the support of voters who identified affordability as their top issue. Specifically, he focused on the cost of housing, which 7 in 10 New Yorkers said was a major problem.
Each candidate pitched a different idea to lower costs. For example, Mr. Mamdani proposed free child care and city bus rides by increasing taxes on the wealthy. Ms. Sherrill called for lowering grocery prices by creating tax incentives for food retailers.
The White House insisted that prices are falling under Mr. Trump. It cited a slew of retailers, including Target, Walmart and Aldi, which are offering their lowest-cost Thanksgiving meals in years.
Mr. Trump blamed Republican candidates across the country for not touting his administration’s economic success.
“I was angry last night with the Republicans. I said you don’t talk about this stuff. Nobody talks about this stuff,” he said Thursday about lower prices. “[Democrats] talk about affordability. They don’t have affordability. We had the highest inflation in the history of our country under Biden.”
He added, “When gasoline goes down and energy goes down, everything else follows. What the Democrats do is they lie. We are the ones who’ve done great on affordability. They’ve done horribly on affordability.”
Mr. Trump campaigned on affordability before the 2024 election. He made sweeping promises to bring down prices for Americans “starting on Day 1.”
“That promise is something that has come back to haunt him,” Mr. Mitchell said. He said his polling found that Mr. Trump was underwater (with 51% disapproval) on economic policy among voters in Michigan, a critical battleground state.
Prices are rising because of Mr. Trump’s ambitious tariffs on U.S. imports.
Prices at Target are up 5.5%, and Walmart’s prices have increased 5.3% from last year, according to DataWeave, an analytics company that looked at 16,000 products on each retailer’s website.
Amazon has raised prices by as much as 12%, according to a report. The retail giant disputes that claim, saying the increase was based on cherry-picked items.
The Consumer Price Index, a Bureau of Labor Statistics metric, reported the annual inflation rate at 3% in September. It was the same place it was in January, when Mr. Trump took office, and slightly above the 2.9% rate in December.
However, when volatile food and energy prices are removed, the CPI shows a modest decline in inflation. The rate, excluding food and energy, was 3% in September, lower than in December, when it was 3.2%, and January, when it stood at 3.3%.
Consumers are seeing little relief, however. The CPI revealed that grocery prices increased by 2.7% in September from the previous year. Items such as coffee (18.9%), beef and veal (14.7%), and bananas (6%) are showing staggering increases.
Energy prices are also on the rise, according to data from the Energy Information Administration. The average price of residential electricity rates reached 17.62 cents per kilowatt-hour in August, according to the EIA’s most recent information, up 10% from 15.94 cents per kilowatt-hour in January.
In September, the average price of a car soared above $50,000 for the first time, largely because of Mr. Trump’s auto tariffs and the expiration of tax credits for electric vehicle purchases.
However, the price of gasoline has declined minimally. AAA reported that the average price of gas is $3.08 per gallon nationwide, a slight decrease from $3.10 per gallon in September 2024.
Economists advise consumers to be patient, noting the basic tenet of economics: Prices rise quickly but drop slowly, if at all.
James Mohs, who teaches economics at the University of New Haven, said uncertainty in the U.S. and overseas has rattled markets, making price declines more difficult to achieve.
Events that have injected uncertainty into the markets include the longest government shutdown in history, Mr. Trump’s ever-changing tariff policy and the Russia-Ukraine war.
“All these things are going to get cleared up, and that’s going to favorably impact the economy,” Mr. Mohs said. “Right now, there’s volatility, and nobody knows what’s going on. These geopolitical issues are just devastating to the economy. Trump is trying to clean these things up, but he can only do so much.”
Mr. Mohs said some of Mr. Trump’s economic policies, such as cutting business regulations and making the U.S. energy independent, will eventually help bring down prices. He also noted that Mr. Trump’s tariffs did not cause the widespread economic devastation that some analysts predicted.
“I think there was a lot of anticipation when Trump was elected that prices were going to drop radically, but they didn’t. We are still at the base inflation rate from prior administrations,” he said. “I think, overall, expectations were out of line with reality.”
• Jeff Mordock can be reached at jmordock@washingtontimes.com.
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