U.S. operations against Iraq in Gulf War can offer hints about dealing with Iran, say analysts

The 12-day conflict between Iran and Israel in June and the 1991 Gulf War may be separated by decades, geography and major players, but that doesn’t mean the lessons learned from the U.S.-led coalition that ejected Iraq from neighboring Kuwait have little to offer today, a former director for Persian Gulf affairs at the National Security Council said Wednesday.

Kenneth M. Pollack, vice president for policy at the Middle East Institute, said it was “absolutely correct” for policymakers in Washington to reexamine the situation in Iraq during the President George H.W. Bush administration, while considering more recent operations against Iran.

“There were certainly things that we learned in the course of our containment of Iraq. We did some things badly. We did some things better,” Mr. Pollack said during a briefing at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank. “There’s no question that we learned a tremendous amount, and I think it would be absolutely appalling if we forgot those lessons.”

Analysts say there are similarities between Iraq in 1991 and Iran today. Saddam Hussein was an anti-American, oil-rich autocrat who sought weapons of mass destruction, targeted Israel, and repressed his own people. Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader since June 1989, has been following much of the same playbook.

“We do need to learn from those past experiences, but as we do so, we also have to be very careful not to misapply the lessons,” Mr. Pollack said. “These are different countries and they are in different geo-strategic circumstances.”

He noted that the United States of the mid-2020s is also very different from the United States of the 1990s.

Reuel Marc Gerecht, a scholar at FDD and former CIA officer focusing on Iran, says the parallels between the two conflicts aren’t so readily apparent. 

“Most people were, in fact, in favor of going to war against Iraq. The discussions of Iraq on the Democratic side sometimes were indistinguishable from the discussion on the Republican side,” he said. “I think [today’s] consensus on the Democratic and Republican side is ‘Let’s not go there. Let’s not even think about any serious, sustained military operation against Iran, let alone a land invasion.’”

Mr. Gerecht said it would likely take a major provocation from Tehran, such as launching a large number of missiles at U.S. or friendly ships transiting the Persian Gulf, for Washington to mount any kind of military operation other than a bombing campaign.

He described Saddam Hussein, who was executed in December 2006, as a delusional egomaniac who made no secret of his desire to dominate the Middle East. While Ali Khamenei’s goals for Iran may be similar, he is pursuing them more prudently and cautiously, Mr. Gerecht said.

“I just don’t see it. I think the differences [between Iraq and Iran] outweigh any of the similarities,” he said.

Mr. Pollack said he would like the U.S. government to pursue a more aggressive policy against Tehran, up to and including complete regime change. He doubts that’s a priority for the Trump administration, however.

“I don’t think this administration is interested in containment,” Mr. Pollack said. “I think the President wants to make a deal with the Iranians. He’s made that very, very clear.”