Maryland faces difficult coaching climate if it were to move on from Mike Locksley

The pressure surrounding Mike Locksley and his Maryland program has hit a fever pitch as the Terrapins have wilted again when the going gets tough in Big Ten Conference play. 

Even after many preseason projections expected Maryland to have a losing season, calls for the District native’s firing have risen to their loudest level in his seven-year tenure after three-straight blown fourth-quarter leads last month and a drubbing by No. 2 Indiana last week.

“We have little margin of error for how we win with an inexperienced team,” Locksley said. “Because we’re not young anymore. We’re just inexperienced.”

Inexperience aside, the current circumstances indicate a difficult climate if the university and first-year athletic director Jim Smith were to move on from Locksley, even amid multiple negative trend lines during his tenure.

The record

Headed into Saturday’s game at Rutgers (2:30 p.m., FS1), Maryland (4-4, 1-4 Big Ten) is 36-40 overall since Locksley returned to College Park in 2019. His victory number is heavily padded by 20 non-conference games, including three this season all against non-Power 4 or Football Championship Subdivision teams.

Of his 40 losses, 39 of them have come against Big Ten opponents, and the Terrapins have never finished with a .500 or better record in league play. Maryland is 16-39 in the Big Ten during Locksley’s time, has lost 12 conference games in the last two seasons, and is now 0-17 against ranked Big Ten opponents after the 55-10 Indiana loss.

“A win this week against Rutgers gives us a second conference win. That would be progress, because we won one a year ago,” Locksley said.

The lone non-Big Ten loss under Locksley is ironic in and of itself: A 20-17 setback at Temple in 2019, which marked the first and only time Maryland was ranked (No. 21) in his tenure. Add in one more ignominious mark — Maryland is 0-11 after a bye week under Locksley — and those who want him removed have plenty of data to make their case.

The competition

In his defense, Locksley would point to his teams reaching and winning three consecutive bowl games behind the arm of quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa from 2021-23, unprecedented in UMD football history, as a measure of success.

Though he has repeatedly said he’s not a “victim” or won’t have a “victim mentality,” the standard of success has shifted drastically under Locksley’s feet.

Since those bowl wins, he’s watched previous doormat programs like Indiana, Vanderbilt and even Virginia — Maryland’s biggest rival whom Locksley has beaten twice — zoom past the Terrapins and into the Top 25 and College Football Playoff contention. As college football’s tiers have flattened, those successes prove that a generational turnaround can be done, and quickly.

Maryland was slow to adapt to changing name, image and likeness standards, and it’s still unknown what the university’s distribution will be to football of approximately $20.5 million from the House v. NCAA settlement. But the Terrapins can no longer hide behind their previous contemporaries, who now have eclipsed them.

The climate

Locksley was hired by then-athletic director Damon Evans, who left for Southern Methodist in April after a contentious period that coincided with men’s basketball coach Kevin Willard’s departure to Villanova.

In came pro sports administrator and Big Ten veteran Smith, who started in mid-July and has made an impression with efforts to improve the game experience and visibility of Maryland’s programs. He has publicly and privately expressed his support for Locksley from the preseason on through the Terrapins’ recent setbacks.

Among Power 4 conferences, there are nine current openings, including at two of Maryland’s rivals: Penn State and Virginia Tech. If Smith were to fire Locksley, Maryland’s job pales in attractiveness to spots like PSU, LSU, Florida and Auburn and barely slots in above places like UCLA, which already beat UMD with an interim coach, and Stanford, currently interim coached by former Terrapin QB Frank Reich.

The trickle-down from one of the most furious coaching carousels in the sport’s history could leave Maryland without an experienced candidate and at the same time risk losing its current and future stable of talented young players who are deeply loyal to Locksley, including Zion Elee, one of the top five recruits in the nation.

Locksley’s mantra for the initial seasons of his stewardship of Maryland football was “The Best Is Ahead,” which was branded across practice facilities and university materials. That proclamation has evolved into something different this year, with “Elevate” becoming the coach’s operative phrase of the moment. 

“We said our goal was to elevate the program. I think I’ve displayed and showed that there’s still room for us to have that type of elevation,” he said.

Locksley needs to do exactly that in his program’s final four games to raise the chances he will be around to see his plan through.