Taiwan to muscle up defense spending by $40 billion

SEOUL, South Korea — Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te has gone on a widespread media offensive to make clear the democratic island’s — or at least, his party’s — determination to defend itself.

His media messages in recent days are aimed at three target audiences: America, Taiwanese citizens and Japan.

In a Tuesday op-ed published in The Washington Post, followed swiftly by a Wednesday press conference in Taipei, he said he is introducing a $40 billion supplementary budget to procure weapons. The two initiatives followed prior messages toward Tokyo.

Speaking Wednesday, he said Beijing is engaged in an “unprecedented military buildup” while intensifying “provocations in the Taiwan Strait, in the East and South China Seas, and across the Indo-Pacific.”

U.S. sources have asserted that China’s military has been tasked with being invasion-capable by 2027.

“In response to growing pressure from Beijing, our defense spending, which has already doubled in recent years, is expected to rise to 3.3 percent of gross domestic product by next year,” he wrote in his U.S. op-ed. “I am committed to lifting this baseline to 5 percent by 2030, representing the largest sustained military investment in Taiwan’s modern history.”

What he called his “landmark package” will “fund significant new arms acquisitions from the United States” as well as upgrade asymmetrical capabilities.

Mr. Lai alluded to Beijing’s “infiltration and influence campaign” to shift Taiwanese public opinion and undermine democratic institutions.

China is deploying sub-kinetic but coercive “gray zone” tactics across the First Island Chain. These range from online influence operations to ramming and firing water-cannons at vessels, to aerial and naval drills.

Mr. Lai wrote that he is accelerating the development of a multilayered “T-Dome” air defense system, capable of countering Chinese drones, missiles and warplanes.

The Taiwanese president was speaking after he and his defense minister, Wellington Koo, had reportedly received a briefing from the National Security Council.

Mr. Lai praised Mr. Trump in his editorial for clarifying “the importance of American leadership around the world.”

However, his media strategy comes amid greatly improved Beijing-Washington relations.

China-U.S. ties are cozy following a meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea last month, buttressed by a Monday leader-to-leader telephone conversation.

With a trade-war truce holding, the good vibes look set to sustain through April, when Mr. Trump will make a state visit to China.

Washington has not spoken up publicly for ally Japan, despite a rhetorical, diplomatic and trade blast that Beijing has aimed at Tokyo, following newly minted Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Nov. 7 remarks about the importance of Taiwan to Japan’s security.    

Mr. Lai is caught in a Catch-22 situation.

Washington is demanding he increase his defense budget, something Mr. Lai, an anti-Beijing hardliner, is very keen to do.

Even so, his commitment of 5% of GDP to defense falls far short of that proposed by U.S. Deputy Undersecretary of Defense Eldridge Colby. Speaking at a hearing in March, prior to his April nomination, Mr. Colby suggested “10% [of GDP] or in that ballpark.”

Problematically for Mr. Lai, Taipei’s Legislative Yuan is controlled by the opposition Kuomintang, or KMT. The KMT, and an allied minor opposition party, the Taiwan People’s Party, are far less florid than he is toward Beijing and have held up budget approvals.

That is requiring some crafty political footwork.

Mr. Lai’s supplementary budget will likely be “including Coast Guard funding — now part of ‘Ocean Affairs’ — and also, akin to other countries, passing off a bunch of stuff as defense,” said a source familiar with regional defense sales.

The frustration of Mr. Lai and his party with domestic political constraints was apparent early this year.

A surprise initiative crafted by DPP grassroots to redress the political deadlock — a “Great Recall” vote that sought to boot out 31 KMT lawmakers — failed dismally over the summer, with zero results.

A related issue is the Taiwanese martial backbone — or lack thereof.  

In 2024, Mr. Lai initiated a “Whole of Society Defence Resilience Committee.” Visitors to Taipei are frequently impressed by middle-class civilians’ enthusiasm to pay for private war-disaster-preparation training courses.

However, the military imbalance between China and Taiwan is vast. There are also local challenges.

On one side of the defence spectrum, questions have been raised over the steadiness of Taipei’s top brass; on the other side, over the readiness of Taiwanese reservists.

Even highly motivated citizens complain that they could not — unlike Ukrainians — form militias or undertake partisan action due to their lack of weaponry, a byproduct of Taipei’s strict gun laws.

Mr. Lai himself addressed the question of commitment.

“Among all the possible scenarios for China’s annexation of Taiwan, the biggest threat is not force,” he admitted Wednesday. “It is our own surrender.”

Mr. Lai has one plus: He is gaining rising support from a neighbor.

Japan’s Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi paid an unusually high-profile visit to Yonaguni, the Japanese island closest to Taiwan, last weekend, where he briefed the media on fortification efforts.

Yonaguni and the wider Ryukyu chain dominate strategic straits between Japan and Taiwan.

The ongoing weaponization of the islands — which has been low-profile prior to Mr. Koizumi’s visit — presents potentially lethal obstacles to any attempt by Chinese warships to encircle or strike Taiwan from the north.

Mr. Koizumi’s visit follows Beijing’s furious reactions to remarks from Ms. Takaichi. Before assuming Japan’s premiership in October, she had been a strong proponent of Japan-Taiwan relations.

The media-savvy Mr. Lai made clear his appreciation.

On Thursday, he posted images of himself dining on Japan’s favorite snack in what has been dubbed “sushi diplomacy.” His initiative followed a ban by China of all Japanese seafood imports.