OPINION:
President Trump is trying to impose a new peace plan for Ukraine, and among its most prominent features are items that would help Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war and further weaken Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
The 28-point plan concedes many of Mr. Putin’s principal demands on Ukraine. First, Ukraine would cede the eastern Donbas region and other parts of Ukraine previously conquered by the Russians. Second, the Ukrainian military would be limited to 600,000 troops. Third, Ukraine’s membership in NATO would be foreclosed. Fourth, elections would be held within 100 days, during which Mr. Zelenskyy could be ousted.
The first three are nonnegotiable for Ukraine.
While this is happening, the European Union has concluded that Ukraine will run out of money by spring, with the United States just standing by. The EU has proposed a loan of about $300 billion, secured by Russian money held in Belgium, to meet Ukraine’s needs. Yet the Belgians are concerned about the legal aspects of that plan and are delaying it until they are satisfied. In any event, it would be a one-shot deal that would probably just delay Ukraine’s running out of money.
According to The Economist magazine, to forestall Russia’s conquest, Ukraine will need about $389 billion in further financial aid and weapons systems from 2026 to 2029. This is almost double the amount, $206 billion, that the EU has spent in Ukraine since the war began. Where it will come from is anyone’s guess.
The U.S. has already sent or committed about $175 billion to Ukraine’s defense in funding and weapons systems since the war began in 2022. Mr. Trump is now unwilling to sell the weapons directly to Ukraine, only to European intermediaries. It’s insufficient, and the EU is unlikely and probably unable to provide Ukraine with what it needs.
All this is thrown into the air by Mr. Trump’s peace plan.
The corruption scandal engulfing Ukraine couldn’t have come at a worse time. It reportedly involves some in Mr. Zelenskyy’s inner circle, including alleged ringleader Timur Mindich, a longtime associate. Mr. Mindich fled Ukraine last week before law enforcement officials raided his home. Mr. Zelenskyy has not been implicated so far, but the scandal nevertheless threatens further U.S. aid to Ukraine.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen sent a letter to EU members urging them to agree to Ukraine’s aid of about $150 billion in 2026 and 2027. She wrote, “Europe cannot afford paralysis, either by hesitation or by the search for perfect or simple solutions which do not exist.”
Yet paralysis and false solutions to big problems are what the EU does best. It is, as usual, squabbling about where the loan money will be spent. France, also as usual, is claiming it should be spent in Europe on European (meaning French) weapons. German Prime Minister Friedrich Merz has said the money should be spent only on new weapons, not to fill Ukraine’s budget gap.
So where will the money come from? Mr. Trump holds the U.S. purse strings. His concerns about Ukraine’s financial corruption are probably being exacerbated by Vice President J.D. Vance, who led Senate opposition to any further aid to Ukraine when he was a senator.
Mr. Putin is relentless, and so must we be. He wants to prove NATO is too weak to oppose him, and he may yet do so despite the air defenses NATO is now mounting to protect its members.
It’s clear Europe must bear the greatest share of the Ukraine burden. Nevertheless, more money and weapons must come from the U.S., or Mr. Putin will conquer Ukraine. The peace proposal includes a guarantee by Russia that it would not reinvade Ukraine. That guarantee isn’t worth the paper it’s printed on.
Mr. Trump’s peace plan is not helpful to the cause of creating peace. According to a Wall Street Journal report, the plan contains not only the territorial concessions and the bar to NATO membership but also a separate U.S. document with security guarantees, intelligence and logistical assurances and “other steps judged appropriate.” That’s diplo speak for anything short of armed intervention.
As incentives to Russia, it would lift sanctions and allow the country to participate in U.S. plans for artificial intelligence, energy deals and rare earth mining in the Arctic. Those are major concessions with no relationship to Ukraine. Why should we do those things?
The Russians claim they haven’t been presented with the new plan.
As Mr. Zelenskyy said last week in a video address, “Now is one of the most difficult moments in our history. … Now Ukraine may find itself facing a very difficult choice. Either loss of dignity or the risk of losing a key partner.”
Mr. Trump wants a response by Thursday. Mr. Zelenskyy must be worried.
Mr. Putin is smiling.
• Jed Babbin is a national security and foreign affairs columnist for The Washington Times and a contributing editor for The American Spectator.
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