Thanksgiving dinner prices fall for 3rd straight year as inflation cools

Thanksgiving turkey dinners will cost less for the third year in a row as inflation cools, the American Farm Bureau Federation reported Wednesday.

The agriculture industry group estimated that the average wildfowl feast for 10 people will cost $55.18, or $5.52 per person.

That’s down 5% from $58.08 in 2024 and 10% from $61.17 in 2023, when prices fell 4.5% from a record high of $64.05 in 2022.

Falling turkey prices have driven the trend. According to the report, the average 16-pound frozen turkey will cost $21.50 this month, or $1.34 per pound. That’s down 16% from last year, when prices fell 6% from 2023.

“Farmers are still working to rebuild turkey flocks that were devastated by avian influenza, but overall demand has also fallen,” said Faith Parum, a federation economist. “The combination will help ensure turkey will remain an affordable option for families celebrating Thanksgiving.”

The federation estimated that some side dishes will still rise in price, keeping the annual feast more expensive than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019.

The group has tracked the grocery prices of turkey, stuffing, sweet potatoes, pumpkin pie and other staples in 40 annual surveys.

“Despite modest declines in the cost of a Thanksgiving meal, I know food prices are a real concern for many families, including in rural America,” said Zippy Duvall, the federation’s president. “We lost 15,000 farms last year because of factors including historically low crop prices, high supply costs and trade uncertainty, which continue to squeeze farmers and ranchers.”

He called on Congress to address “the challenging economic conditions” facing farmers.

The federation has sparred with the Trump administration in recent months, asking it to reduce tariffs on imported goods that it blames for driving up farmers’ production costs.

In a statement to The Washington Times on the federation’s report, the White House defended its economic policies.

“The prices of turkeys, butter, cranberries and other household essentials going down is another example why Americans are thankful that they resoundingly threw Joe Biden and Democrats out of office just one year ago,” said Kush Desai, a White House spokesman. “Fixing Joe Biden’s inflation crisis has been a day 1 priority for President Trump, and the administration will continue to implement a robust economic agenda to deliver economic relief for the American people.”

This year’s survey found prices have dropped on average by 1% to 16% for five other items in a feast for Thanksgiving Day, which is Nov. 27: cubed stuffing mix, frozen pie crusts, a dozen dinner rolls, fresh cranberries and miscellaneous ingredients.

The report also found that rising production costs and natural disasters, including a hurricane that devastated North Carolina’s sweet potato farmers, have jacked up produce and dairy prices.

Average prices have risen between 0.1% and 61% for pumpkin pie mix, whipped cream, frozen peas, whole milk, sweet potatoes and a tray of carrots and celery.

According to the latest federal data, grocery prices are rising by 2.7% year over year. That’s down from a peak of 11% in 2022 and nearing the pre-pandemic average of 2% per year.

“Thanksgiving dinner costs are expected to edge down about 2% to 3% from last year,” said Angelica Gianchandani, a marketing instructor at New York University. “But prices are still nearly 20% higher than before the pandemic.”

In 2022, the biggest and longest Avian flu outbreak in U.S. history affected nearly 59 million turkeys.

Executives at Butterball, which produces 1 in every 3 turkeys served at Thanksgiving each year, said the industry has adjusted.

“The price of turkey this Thanksgiving should be equal to or less than last year,” said Scott Vinson, Butterball’s executive vice president of sales and marketing.

The North Carolina-based poultry producer added that only 28% of consumers responding to a recent survey planned to modify their celebration to save on inflation costs. That’s down from half of those who said the same thing last year.

Daniel Turner, executive director of the fossil fuel advocacy group Power the Future, said falling gas and oil prices have helped temper the cost of packing and shipping food this year.  

According to the Energy Information Administration, U.S. oil production has reached a record level of more than 13.79 million barrels daily since the Trump administration lifted environmental restrictions.

“More affordable life starts with more abundant energy, and thanks to the policies of the Trump administration, Americans are starting to see meaningful results on both fronts,” Mr. Turner said in a statement. “Lower energy costs ripple through the economy and are showing up not only on the roads, but also on the table this Thanksgiving.”

But Matt Busardo, a North American poultry analyst for the British-based market researcher Expana, warned that a reemergence of Avian flu has lagged behind this year’s retail turkey supply.

He noted that this year the illness has eliminated 3.7 million commercial turkeys compared with 1.6 million in 2024 and 1.8 million in 2023. And he estimated that the wholesale price of a 16-pound tom has risen 86% since January versus an increase of less than 1% during the same period in 2024 and a 32% decline in 2023.

“On the retail side, many buyers secured product earlier in the year, as is typical, before wholesale benchmarks spiked to historic levels,” Mr. Busardo said. “As a result, shoppers will still likely find supply and promotional pricing even as wholesale values remain elevated.”

Ways to adapt

Other recent reports offer a mixed picture of Thanksgiving food inflation.

The market research firm Datasembly, which tracks grocery store purchases directly, estimates the average basket of Thanksgiving food will cost $61.14, which is $4, or 7%, more than last year.

Datasembly tracks stuffing mix, jarred gravy, buttermilk biscuits, canned green beans, jellied cranberry sauce, canned sweet corn, whipped topping, pastry pie shells, pumpkin pie mix, russet potatoes and 10-pound frozen young turkeys. The company surveyed prices at Walmart, Albertsons, Kroger, Target and other retailers.

The cost of ordering many of the same items online is rising more slowly, however.

Pattern, a market research firm that tracks the average purchase price of foods sold at Amazon, projects that the cost to buy 10 Thanksgiving staple items is up 2% to $28.45 this year. That’s the same rate of increase as last year, when the bill rose to $27.90.

“Thanksgiving groceries are showing much more stable pricing this year, a far cry from the turbulent increases we saw right after the pandemic,” said Hamilton Noel, Pattern’s data scientist. “This trend reflects normalizing supply chains and softer overall food inflation.”

In an annual survey of 2,000 adults published last week, the online financial service company Lending Tree found that potential Thanksgiving hosts expected to spend an average of $487 on food, drinks and decorations. That’s up 13% from a similar survey last year.

According to the latest Consumer Price Index, food prices are closely tracking overall inflation, with both landing at roughly 3% in September.

Ryan Young, a senior economist at the libertarian Competitive Enterprise Institute, said more families are opting for generic store brands and buying less food as they adjust to the reality that prices aren’t returning to pre-pandemic norms.

“People are finding ways to adapt, which is making the numbers look better than things really are,” Mr. Young said in an email.