OPINION:
After decades of military rule in Myanmar, free and fair general elections were permitted in 2015, and the National League for Democracy and its leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, won by a landslide. In February 2021, a military coup d’etat installed Gen. Min Aung Hlaing as the acting president and imprisoned Ms. Suu Kyi, the de facto head of state and recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize in 1991 for her nonviolent struggle for democracy and human rights in Myanmar.
The military coup has brought death and suffering to the people of Myanmar. Recent figures from the United Nations estimate that more than 6,000 civilians have been killed by the military, including more than 1,000 women and 695 children. According to the United Nations, more than 62% of verified civilian deaths result from airstrikes and artillery barrages by the military, and more than 3.5 million people have been displaced within Myanmar since the military coup, with hundreds of thousands more seeking refuge in neighboring countries.
Anti-coup resistance forces, including the People’s Defense Forces and ethnic armed organizations, are active in Myanmar. The exiled National Unity government, a group of elected politicians who were ousted in the coup, provides leadership, funding and support to the various resistance groups that often coordinate activities to fight the military junta to restore democracy to Myanmar.
According to the United Nations, since the February 2021 coup, the military junta has imported more than $1 billion in weapons, raw materials and dual-use goods from several countries. Russia and China top the list of suppliers. Russia’s state arms exporter, Rosoboronexport, was instrumental in providing the military junta with more than $400 million in weaponry: attack helicopters, fighter jets, missiles, drones and radar systems. For the world to see, there were joint naval exercises between Russia and Myanmar’s military junta.
China has resumed normal relations with the military junta and its various ministries, in addition to providing Chinese Y-8 transport planes. Beijing is quite open about its political engagement with the military junta and, working with Russia, resists U.N. efforts to condemn it.
What has been disappointing is the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ inability to influence Myanmar’s military junta and restore democracy to Myanmar. Indeed, in April 2021, ASEAN adopted a “Five-Point Consensus” to stop the violence, initiate a dialogue and appoint a special envoy to oversee progress in restoring democracy in Myanmar. The military junta has basically ignored ASEAN and the five-point consensus despite ASEAN’s engagement with the military junta, thus providing legitimacy to a regime committing grave abuses.
Malaysia, as the 2025 ASEAN chair, has been proactive in pushing for a ceasefire and meaningful dialogue with resistance forces. Indonesia has been supportive, and hopefully other ASEAN members will be equally supportive of a ceasefire and dialogue with multiple ethnic armed organizations, including the National Unity Government and the People’s Defense Forces.
The military junta announced this month that phased elections will be held from December through January. There is understandable concern that this will be a sham election, designed to legitimize the military junta and its leader, Gen. Min Aung Hlaing.
The United Nations, ASEAN and the U.S. should demand that they be permitted to send election monitors to Myanmar to certify that the election was fair and open to all the people.
• Joseph R. DeTrani is a former associate director of national intelligence. All statements of fact, opinion or analysis expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official positions or views of the U.S. government. Nothing in the contents should be construed as asserting or implying U.S. government authentication of information or endorsement of the author’s views.
Please read our comment policy before commenting.