Will Trump attack Nigeria?

OPINION:

President Trump has threatened military intervention in Nigeria unless it stops the killings of Christians. Mr. Trump, in a Truth Social video last week, said we would “do things to Nigeria that Nigeria is not going to be happy about” and “go into that now-disgraced country guns-a-blazing.”

There is a very big problem with that. We obviously have a strong humanitarian interest in Nigeria, but we have no vital national security interest in that nation, which precludes us from risking American lives.

The perpetrators of the murders are the Boko Haram and the Islamic State in West Africa Province terrorist networks, and Fulani tribal militants. Although the numbers are disputed, terrorists have killed probably 52,000 Christians and burned more than 10,000 churches since 2009. Reportedly, more than 7,000 Christians were killed in the first eight months of 2025.

The Nigerian government has denied that the terrorists are targeting Christians, saying risibly that “terrorists attack all who reject their murderous ideology — Muslims, Christians and those of no faith alike.”

An adviser to Nigerian President Bola Tinubu said, “We welcome U.S. assistance as long as it recognizes our territorial integrity.” Still, any U.S. incursion into Nigeria would, by definition, trash Nigeria’s territorial integrity.

Nigeria is the most populous nation in Africa. It crams about 237 million people into an area about twice the size of California. It is generally divided between the Islamic north and the Christian south.

The nation is split about 50-50 between Christians and Muslims. Forty percent of Nigerians are younger than 14. Millions of Nigerian Christians are displaced and living in camps.

Mr. Trump said he had directed Pentagon planners to work out the details. So, how would any U.S. strikes be carried out against Nigeria?

Mr. Trump could deploy one or two aircraft carriers near Nigeria. The carriers could bring most of Nigeria within range of their aircraft. The problem with that is that Islamic terrorists hide in places — schools, hospitals and such — that could cause outrage against the U.S. if they are struck. Those who don’t hide in city centers can be highly elusive, as we found in Afghanistan.

Moreover, Islamic terrorists usually have few troops in any concentration. Our best satellite intelligence would be brought to bear, but the targets would be small if they were at all detectable. We would have to plant or suborn agents on the ground, and that would take months if not years.

We could land a U.S. Marine division in Nigeria, which would surely make the Nigerian government our enemy. The same is true about Special Forces, which would suffer from a lack of intelligence about the locations of terrorist leaders. We would have to have spies on the ground reporting on terrorist hiding places.

A huge logistics train would be required to sustain the operations of the Marines or even the special operations forces. The normal aircraft carrier deployment is six to nine months. With all the rest going on in the world, it would be unwise to strip our carriers from other areas to go to Nigeria.

Who is the real enemy? The Nigerian government, the terrorists, or both? We would have to cope with them all if we were to invade and/or if our carriers were deployed.

Nigeria looks like a quagmire in waiting. Any nation that large will be an ideal hiding place for the terrorists. Cooperation of the Nigerian government cannot be assured in any air or ground attack. Even if we succeeded in bringing death to many of the Islamists, they would seek refuge in northern Nigeria or neighboring countries and wait us out.

This column has frequently fulminated about Mr. Trump’s empty threats. He has set deadlines for Russian President Vladimir Putin to no avail. He has threatened the Taliban government in Afghanistan that it would suffer bad consequences if it didn’t return U.S. control of Bagram Air Base. He also has threatened Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro about the Tren de Aragua gang members whom Mr. Maduro threw out of his prisons and into the U.S.

None of these threats has resulted in serious consequences for any of the leaders Mr. Trump has threatened.

Mr. Trump has never believed that threatening nations or their leaders diminishes American stature when they are not carried out. We must hope that his attention will be diverted again and that no action will be taken against Nigeria.

We must not spend American lives where we do not have a vital national security interest at stake.

• Jed Babbin is a national security and foreign affairs columnist for The Washington Times and a contributing editor for The American Spectator.