Combat continues between India, Pakistan, as retaliation follows retaliation

Conflict between India and Pakistan escalated Thursday, with the nations trading fire across the border despite calls for restraint after an India aerial assault Wednesday left 31 people dead in Pakistan.

Two civilians were killed in new attacks Thursday, according to the Pakistani military. India, meanwhile, said it had “neutralized” counterattacks aimed at its forces.

According to regional media, leaders of both countries spoke via the hotline between the capitals on Thursday afternoon.

India said an attack on Pakistani air defense systems on Thursday came in retaliation after Pakistan launched drones and missiles across the border overnight. 

“On the night of 07-08 May 2025, Pakistan attempted to engage a number of military targets in Northern and Western India using drones and missiles,” India’s Ministry of Defense reported Thursday, saying Pakistan’s attacks were neutralized by air defenses.

“In response, Indian Armed Forces targeted Air Defence Radars and systems in various locations in Pakistan,” the statement continued.

The ministry also said that Pakistan’s “intense” cross-border firing had led to 16 deaths in India, and that the Indian response “has been in the same domain, with the same intensity, and remains focused, measured, and is non-escalatory.”

Though it was not detailed, the “firing” appears to be a reference to artillery fire, and possibly also drone strikes, across the Indo-Pakistan frontier.

Reporting from Lahore on Thursday, Reuters quoted a Pakistani military spokesperson saying its forces had “shot down 25 Israeli-made drones from India at multiple locations, including the two largest cities of Karachi and Lahore, and their debris is being collected.”

The spokesperson also said that one Indian drone had been downed over Rawalpindi, home to the Pakistan Army’s fortified headquarters.

If correct, that has raised the stakes. 

In its first message after the first strikes on Wednesday, New Delhi stated that: “No Pakistani military facilities have been targeted.”

All Indian financial markets were sharply down Thursday, while Pakistan’s stock exchange closed amid panic sell-offs.

Nations including the U.S., China, Iran and Turkey, as well as multinational organizations including the EU and U.N., have called for calm, and there had been hopes in some quarters that India would cease hostilities after its initial operation.

Early Wednesday, India launched aerial attacks on Pakistan. New Delhi’s Ministry of Defense said they were “focused strikes” against nine targets that it claimed were “terrorist infrastructure” inside both Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir province.

The strikes were retaliation for a mass killing by Muslim militants on April 22. On that day, 26 people — 25 Indians and one Nepali — were shot near the India-controlled town of Pahalgam, a popular destination for Indian tourists. 

India has accused Pakistan of links to the attackers. Islamabad has denied that, and called for an international investigation.

Footage from inside Pakistan showed at least one mosque had been hit by Wednesday’s Indian air strikes.

Kashmir, a predominantly Muslim province is largely, but not entirely, controlled by predominantly Hindu India. It has been a historical flash point between the two countries and a cause of two of the three wars that Islamabad and New Delhi have fought since winning independence from Britain in 1947.

Both states acquired nuclear weapons and related delivery systems in the 1990s.

A source familiar with the subcontinent, and also familiar with modern weapons systems, told The Washington Times on Wednesday that, per unnamed sources, Indian aircraft had, indeed, been shot down — albeit, in Indian air space. That indicates the use of long-range, standoff missiles.

The source said that it was unclear if the Indian aircraft had been downed by Pakistani air defenses, in long-range air-to-air engagements, by friendly fire from the ground or by a combination of the above.

The use of jet strikes — air-launched missiles and possibly uncrewed loitering munitions — rather than ground-to-ground missiles may have been designed to control risks, the source said.

Though some Indian aircraft are nuclear capable, the person said a ground-to-ground missile attack could, feasibly, have been seen by Pakistan as a nuclear strike.

In India, public opinion has been driven by outrage over the April 22 atrocity, and the source opined that after Wednesday’s initial wave of air strikes, India might have been willing to stand down.

However, although news reports on Thursday stated that the national security advisers of the two countries made contact via hotline, the two capitals appear to be in an escalation dominance cycle.

Pundits laid out the risk.

“A war between India and Pakistan would potentially kill millions,” wrote retired U.S. Rear Admiral James Stavridis on X. “Resolving this crisis needs to go to the top of the international agenda.”