OPINION:
On Monday, the results of the first round of Poland’s presidential election were announced, setting the stage for a fierce contest.
According to the National Electoral Commission, Rafał Trzaskowski, the liberal mayor of Warsaw, narrowly leads conservative historian Karol Nawrocki, securing 31.36% of the vote to Nawrocki’s 29.54%. The runoff on June 1 will determine Poland’s future as a strategic U.S. ally and its commitment to the rule of law and the moral fabric of its society.
Mr. Nawrocki, backed by the Law and Justice party (PiS), champions a vision of robust Polish-American friendship, prosperity and sovereignty. Mr. Trzaskowski, tied to Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition (KO), threatens to unravel transatlantic bonds and deepen lawlessness.
The results underscore a conservative trend. Mr. Nawrocki, alongside Sławomir Mentzen of the Confederation Party, who garnered 15.4%, and another conservative candidate with 5.2%, collectively secured over 50% of the vote. This reflects the Polish electorate’s resolve to defend sovereignty and traditional values against Mr. Tusk’s liberal agenda. Mr. Mentzen’s strong showing, especially among youth, reflects frustration with the establishment. His supporters — nationalists and economic liberals — are likely to rally behind Mr. Nawrocki in the runoff to “save Poland,” as he declared in Gdańsk.
Mr. Nawrocki’s campaign, bolstered by his May 1 visit to Washington — where President Trump proclaimed, “You will win!” — has solidified his role as a guardian of Polish-American relations. His diplomatic success in lifting U.S. chip sanctions on May 13, 2025, secured Poland’s place in the artificial intelligence revolution. National Security Council spokesman James Hewitt credited Mr. Nawrocki, saying, “Nawrocki conveyed the urgent need to repeal these regulations.”
A Nawrocki presidency would prioritize robust military and energy partnerships, cementing Poland’s status as a NATO eastern flank powerhouse with defense spending nearing 5% of GDP.
Meanwhile, Mr. Tusk’s leadership has faltered, sidelined by the Biden administration’s exclusion from cutting-edge technology. The Polish prime minister had antagonized Mr. Trump, once accusing him of being a Kremlin stooge — a charge echoed by Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, who called Mr. Trump a “proto-fascist,” and Mr. Sikorski’s wife, Anne Applebaum, who compared Mr. Trump to Mussolini, Stalin and Hitler. These attacks, combined with Mr. Sikorski’s diplomatic ineffectiveness, have weakened Mr. Tusk’s position. A Trzaskowski victory would entrench Mr. Tusk’s authoritarian tendencies, dismantling institutional checks upheld by outgoing President Andrzej Duda’s vetoes.
Mr. Tusk’s government already flouts the rule of law, having revoked Telewizja Republika’s license and targeting Christians and independent journalists. In a May 13 letter to the European Commission, the House Judiciary Committee’s Republican members condemned these actions as an assault on free speech.
A bombshell scandal involving the National Research and Academic Network (NASK) last week exposed Mr. Tusk’s dirty tactics. Democracy Action, a foundation linked to George Soros and the Tusk government, spent the equivalent of more than $100,000 on Facebook ads smearing Messrs. Nawrocki and Mentzen, violating electoral laws. NASK, a state-funded entity tasked with monitoring disinformation, claimed the ads were foreign-funded, but Meta confirmed their Polish origin. The campaign is linked to Mr. Tusk’s government through Democracy Action Chairman Jakub Kocjan, who was photographed with Mr. Trzaskowski and recently with Deputy Prime Minister Gawkowski, who oversees NASK, in a group shot on NASK’s official X profile.
Mr. Nawrocki fired back, declaring, “I will win anyway,” exuding confidence. Mr. Tusk’s recent X post (“Now the real game begins. A tough fight for every vote”) betrays his panic as conservatives, with over 50% combined support, threaten his coalition’s grip. Mr. Tusk surely recalls his bitter 2005 loss to Lech Kaczyński (PiS), though his first-round lead then was far wider than Mr. Trzaskowski’s is now. Still, he lost the runoff.
Mr. Nawrocki warned Mr. Tusk to “refrain from using special services in the campaign.” This isn’t baseless. Mr. Tusk’s tactics echo earlier provocations, like the 2014 arson of a police post near Russia’s embassy to smear opponents. Alarmingly, Mr. Tusk’s counterintelligence chief, Jarosław Stróżyk, has documented ties to Russia’s military intelligence agency, GRU, casting doubt on Tusk’s loyalty and campaign tactics.
Mt. Trzaskowski’s anti-Catholic stance deepens divisions. His strategist, Sławomir Nitras, known for belligerence, vowed in 2021 to “grind down Catholics of their privileges.” Last Sunday, after early results, Mr. Nitras blamed Mr. Trzaskowski’s poor showing on the Catholic organization Opus Dei. Mr. Trzaskowski, upon learning the results, pledged to cut the Church Fund and further liberalize abortion, alienating the nation’s conservative core even more.
The June runoff will be a make-or-break moment for Poland and Europe’s security architecture. The United States watches closely, wary of Mr. Tusk’s illicit actions and the risk of a Romanian-style “constitutional coup” from 2024 repeating in Poland. White House insiders view Mr. Nawrocki as a “reliable partner,” and Mr. Trump’s team surely monitors the runoff, mindful of Poland’s strategic role on NATO’s eastern flank.
A Nawrocki victory would cement Poland’s status as an unwavering U.S. ally and Central European leader. A Trzaskowski win risks plunging Poland into Brussels-Berlin orbit, weakening transatlantic ties and the nation’s moral fiber. With broad mobilization of Poland’s cross-party conservative and liberty-minded electorate, Mr. Nawrocki stands poised to triumph, securing Poland’s place as a bastion of freedom.
• Filip Styczynski is director of operations at the Center for Intermarium Studies at the Institute of World Politics in Washington.
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