Worry about the West Bank

OPINION:

Israel is expanding operations in the Gaza Strip. The long war between the Jewish state and Hamas is entering a new phase, but Israel and its allies would be well advised to worry about another looming threat even closer to home.

On May 4, the Israeli Cabinet approved a plan to significantly broaden the country’s military offensive in Gaza. The plan reportedly aims to move the civilian population to the south, attack Hamas and its allies, and prevent those U.S.-designated terrorist groups from seizing humanitarian aid.

The Israel Defense Forces operation will mark a significant expansion in the 18-month-old conflict, which began after Hamas invaded Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing 1,200 and taking another 251 hostage. It was the largest slaughter of Jewish civilians since the Holocaust, and Israel has spent the intervening months fighting off attacks on other fronts from other Iranian-backed proxies, most notably Hezbollah to the country’s north.

However, the press and policymakers have largely overlooked another threat.

The Palestinian Authority controls the majority of the West Bank, a stretch of land on which the majority of Palestinians reside. The area was known as Judea and Samaria for much of its history but was named the “West Bank” by the Hashemite Kingdom of Transjordan after that nation seized it during Israel’s 1948 War of Independence. The Palestinian Authority was created as a result of the 1990s Oslo Accords, giving Palestinians the opportunity for limited self-rule in Gaza and portions of Judea and Samaria. Yet the Palestinian Authority has been a failure.

The Palestinian Authority is led by Mahmoud Abbas, the head of the Palestine Liberation Organization and the Fatah movement, Hamas’ preeminent rival for power in Palestinian politics. Mr. Abbas will turn 90 this year and has been the president of the Palestinian Authority since 2005. He has steadfastly refused to hold elections, has imprisoned and tortured critics and political opponents, and has ruthlessly crushed any sign of dissidence.

Mr. Abbas is now in the 20th year of what was supposed to be a single, four-year term. Elections for the Palestinian Legislative Council, created as a result of Oslo, have not been held for nearly two decades.

Mr. Abbas’ repressive tendencies reflect his lack of popular appeal. Colorless and staid, the overweight, chain-smoking Mr. Abbas stood in stark contrast with his former boss, the Fatah movement’s fiery and charismatic Yasser Arafat.

The 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, the PLO’s chief donor, nearly crippled the group. Arafat’s support for Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait also cost the PLO critical funding from its patrons in the Persian Gulf. The Oslo Accords allowed Arafat and the PLO to save face.

Oslo gave the PLO an opportunity for limited self-rule in exchange for a promise to renounce terrorism and a pledge to resolve outstanding issues with Israel via bilateral negotiations. The newly created Palestinian Authority would receive Western and Israeli support and would represent Palestinians. Yet Arafat’s promises were empty; he continued to support terrorism against Israelis.

The West’s hopes that Oslo would lead to a two-state solution also came to naught. Arafat rejected numerous U.S. and Israeli offers to create a Palestinian state in exchange for living in peace next to Israel. Indeed, he rejected such proposals in 2000 at Camp David and in 2001 at Taba.

Mr. Abbas has continued the trend, paying tax-deductible salaries to terrorists and rejecting additional U.S. and Israeli offers for a two-state solution, most notably in 2008. He has steadfastly refused negotiations ever since, a violation of the Oslo Accords that remains the basis for the generous foreign aid on which the Palestinian Authority depends.

The Palestinian Authority has continually violated the spirit of Oslo, with its official media and educational arms praising terrorist attacks and refusing to recognize Israel’s legitimacy. The Palestinian Authority’s efforts have borne fruit: A recent poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research found that 59% of Palestinians living under the Palestinian Authority’s rule support the Oct. 7 massacre.

Instead of bringing peace, as the U.S. and other supporters of Oslo intended, the Palestinian Authority has too often sanctified terrorism. Indeed, on several occasions, the U.S.-trained and -supported Palestinian Authority Security Forces have carried out terrorist attacks, a violation of their very mandate and mission.

Even Mr. Abbas’ heavy hand can’t save him or the Palestinian Authority that he leads. The Palestinian Authority remains deeply unpopular. Many areas nominally ruled by it are, in fact, lawless. Iran’s long arm extends to the West Bank. Several Tehran-backed terrorist groups have been uncovered in the area plotting attacks against Israel.

Mr. Abbas has no clear successor. Should he die or be deposed, chaos in the West Bank seems to be a near certainty. This is a problem for Palestinians and Israelis, but it should also be a concern to U.S. policymakers.

The Palestinian Authority was created during a different era, when people unironically spoke of a “new Middle East.” When Mr. Abbas passes from this life to the next, he may take the Palestinian Authority with him, giving Iran and its minions an opening to control even more territory that Israeli officials have long considered to be strategically vital. Iran will be gifted with another front in its war to destroy the Jewish state.

Tehran is watching closely. The U.S. should be, too.

• Sean Durns is a senior research analyst for the 65,000-member, Boston-based Committee for Accuracy in Middle East Reporting and Analysis.