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OPINION:
While the recently stalled peace process between Russia and Ukraine appears to be regaining its footing, with the first direct talks between the countries underway in Istanbul, Washington is in a unique position to reset its approach, and hopefully, get things right this time.
The early experience should confirm for the administration that Russia has no interest in working with the United States and Ukraine along the lines the administration expected. The Ukraine peace process should make clear that Russia’s interests do not coincide with those of the United States and the West.
Russia seeks total domination of Ukraine, sees the West as an adversary that needs to be replaced by a new order led by Russia and China and is looking to position itself as the dominant force in the European theater. Russian success in Ukraine will only lead to more significant problems for the United States and Europe in the future.
In its approach, the United States needs to return to the fundamentals of diplomacy.
This includes not negotiating in public, not berating its allies publicly and not advertising its negotiating position in public. The latter has been particularly harmful. By openly foreclosing NATO membership for Ukraine, dismissing security guarantees for Kyiv, floating the idea of de jure recognition of Russia’s control of Crimea, and by stating the need for Ukraine to cede more territory, we undermined our negotiating position and helped harden Russia’s position in the peace discussions.
These pro-Russia positions emboldened Russia to escalate its attacks against Ukraine since Moscow sensed weakness on the part of the administration and saw the United States’ concessions as an effort by Washington to quickly end the conflict without a carefully thought-out plan. This sense of urgency in Washington is something that Moscow has sought to exploit. Moscow has artfully led the administration down several dead ends, including ceasefire negotiations and limiting energy infrastructure targeting. At the same time, Russia has escalated its bombing of Ukraine, with particular targeting of civilians.
It is not too difficult nor too late to correct the past missteps. First, it is essential to stop the public negotiations and statements about what can be offered to Russia. Second, the United States has to make Ukraine and Europe genuine partners in the peace process, a step that has been slowly evolving but is not yet complete.
The division between the United States and Europe is one of the key goals of Russia, both for influencing the conflict in Ukraine as well as for controlling the long-term security of Europe. Third, the United States cannot walk away from the peace process as suggested recently. Only the United States can hold Europe united and effective in this effort. This role does not mean that Europe is unwilling to meet its share of responsibility in aiding Ukraine. It only means that someone needs to lead. As the strongest economic and military power, it falls to the United States to lead in maintaining a stable and peaceful world order.
Finally, the United States has to realize that military means will be key to a solution. Russia understands raw power, and it is only when Moscow sees no way past it that one can expect some conflict resolution. It is incumbent that the United States and Europe provide the full measure of arms necessary to stave off the Russian onslaught. The Ukrainians are fighting for their identity and territory and are willing to sacrifice to maintain their independence. We need to understand this. It is a horrible war with countless deaths, but Ukraine is fighting for the principles of freedom and the rule of law, and its very existence.
The recent minerals deal, while symbolizing the United States’ support of Ukraine, will not bring peace or the type of support Ukraine requires. Ukraine needs strong military support. Without the proper military equipment, the war will not come to a satisfactory end for either party. Still, it can quickly lead to a stalemate from which the two parties can proceed to meaningful negotiations. It will also strengthen the United States and Ukraine’s negotiating positions.
The United States’ leadership is important for this process. With it, true peace can be achieved, Ukraine can be a viable independent state in the community of nations, and the United States’ interests can be safeguarded.
• Roman Popadiuk served as the first U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine.
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