OPINION:
Such moments in international politics are rare. Karol Nawrocki, the Polish presidential candidate backed by the conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party, secured a pivotal victory for Poland’s tech future by persuading President Trump to lift sanctions on U.S. chip exports. Announced on May 13, this success exposed the diplomatic failures of Poland’s liberal Prime Minister Donald Tusk and his Civic Coalition (KO) government while highlighting Mr. Nawrocki’s rise as a transatlantic powerbroker. The story is a masterclass in political maneuvering, steeped in rivalries, alliances and a high-stakes election that could redefine Poland’s global role.
The saga began when the Biden administration removed Poland from the “Nvidia list”–a select group of America’s closest allies granted access to cutting-edge semiconductor tech vital for artificial intelligence and economic competitiveness. This exclusion laid bare Mr. Tusk’s lack of international influence since taking power in 2023. His government’s failure to secure Poland’s place among top-tier allies left the nation sidelined in the race for tech supremacy.
Seeing worsening ties between Washington and Warsaw as an opportunity, outgoing President Andrzej Duda, a former PiS member and Trump ally, stepped up. In February 2025, Duda attended the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in the U.S., meeting Mr. Trump to strengthen their bond, which was forged during Mr. Trump’s first term. Mr. Duda’s visit laid the groundwork for Poland’s conservative opposition to reclaim Washington’s favor, capitalizing on Mr. Trump’s disdain for Mr. Tusk.
The Polish prime minister had antagonized Mr. Trump, once accusing him of being a Kremlin stooge–a charge echoed by Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, who called Mr. Trump a “proto-fascist,” and Mr. Sikorski’s wife, Anne Applebaum, who compared Mr. Trump to Mussolini, Stalin and Hitler. These provocations ensured that no senior KO official–including Mr. Tusk and his presidential candidate Rafał Trzaskowski–could secure a meeting with Mr. Trump. The divide was stark: Mr. Trump viewed PiS as Poland’s true representatives, while Mr. Tusk’s camp was persona non grata.
Mr. Nawrocki capitalized on this rift. On May 1, the 42-year-old historian and head of Poland’s Institute of National Remembrance landed in Washington for high-level meetings. He met Secretary of State Marco Rubio, House Speaker Mike Johnson and Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan, to whom he emphasized Poland’s role as a frontline NATO ally deserving priority access to U.S. tech. The culmination was Mr. Nawrocki’s meeting with Mr. Trump in the Oval Office. The White House’s X account posted photos of the two men shaking hands, with Mr. Trump flashing a thumbs-up. Mr. Nawrocki told TV Republika that the U.S. president declared, “You will win,” an endorsement that shook Poland’s political landscape.
This was no photo op. Mr. Nawrocki’s campaign highlighted his focus on U.S.-Polish relations, unlike Mr. Trzaskowski, who vowed to prioritize Paris over Washington in a televised debate. Mr. Trzaskowski’s ties to liberal European elites and George Soros-funded initiatives alienated voters who see the U.S. as Poland’s security guarantor. Mr. Nawrocki’s Washington triumph positioned him as the candidate to restore Poland’s transatlantic influence.
Mr. Nawrocki’s trip got results fast. On May 13, the U.S. lifted chip export restrictions on Poland. Mr. Nawrocki claimed credit, writing on X, “I urged senior White House officials and congressional leaders to reverse President Biden’s AI diffusion rules.” On May 14, Deputy Prime Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski falsely claimed at the Impact Congress in Poznań that “the lifting of restrictions is the government’s achievement; ministers lobbied for it.” This was debunked when TV Republika reported a White House statement confirming Mr. Nawrocki’s role, with National Security Council spokesman James Hewitt saying: “Nawrocki conveyed the urgent need to repeal these regulations.” White House sources dismissed KO’s claims, noting no evidence of Mr. Tusk’s government lobbying and that Mr. Tusk’s trained ties with Mr. Trump made such influence unlikely.
The timing wasn’t random. That day, the House Judiciary Committee’s Republican members sent a letter to the European Commission, accusing Mr. Tusk’s government of undermining free speech and the rule of law. The letter named Mr. Gawkowski for revoking the broadcasting license of Telewizja Republika, a conservative outlet critical of Mr. Tusk. A thread on the committee’s X account highlighted Tusk’s crackdowns, including its targeting of conservative Catholic groups and journalists, as censorship. The letter echoed Mr. Nawrocki’s warnings to U.S. officials about Poland’s “judicial crisis and erosion of democratic norms.”
White House insiders say Mr. Trump’s team views Nawrocki as a “solid partner” and is monitoring Poland’s May 18 presidential election, wary of Mr. Tusk’s potential to emulate Romania’s 2024 “constitutional coup,” where election results were annulled amid foreign interference claims.
Mr. Nawrocki’s success in lifting the chip sanctions has positioned Poland as a key player in the AI revolution while exposing Mr. Tusk’s diplomatic shortcomings. As Poles head to the polls on Sunday, the contrast is clear: Mr. Nawrocki, the conservative who secures Polish interests, versus Mr. Trzaskowski, the Europhile tied to a faltering administration. With the White House watching, this election could decide whether Poland stays a U.S. ally or drifts toward Berlin and Brussels. For now, Mr. Nawrocki’s gamble has paid off–the chips are falling in his favor.
• Filip Styczynski is director of operations at the Center for Intermarium Studies in Washington.
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