CAIRO — President Trump has basked this week in lavish welcome ceremonies and signed eye-popping deals in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, but Arab leaders in nearby Egypt are decidedly more skeptical about the U.S. president’s interest in the region, especially after his remarks last month about the Suez Canal.
In an April 26 social media post, the president said, “American ships, both military and commercial, should be allowed to travel, free of charge, through the Panama and Suez canals!”
The comment set off alarms in Egypt, where leaders are negotiating the purchase of upgraded submarines from China and other suppliers to add naval muscle in the Red Sea. A deal could reduce Egyptian dependence on the U.S. and the Trump administration, which some consider too unpredictable.
A priority is protecting the sovereignty of the Suez Canal as revenue plummets. Revenue fell from a record $10.25 billion in 2022 to less than $4 billion last year because of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.
“That income funds everything from food subsidies to arms procurement,” said Mohamed Nabil El Bendary, a political researcher at Interregional for Strategic Analysis in Cairo. “So any suggestion the canal should be open to U.S. warships free of charge strikes a nerve.”
Behind closed doors, Egyptian security figures interpret Mr. Trump’s remarks as a signal that traditional U.S. guarantees can no longer be taken for granted.
A senior source close to Egypt’s arms procurement community told The Washington Times that the country is finalizing plans to replace its aging Chinese Romeo-class submarines, last upgraded in the 1980s, with a fleet of at least 12 modern, stealth-capable vessels. Four German-built Type 209s are already in service. Cairo now aims to acquire at least eight more from Spain and China.
“We’ve always had 12 boats,” the source said. “We’re just replacing the old ones. Israel’s got its advantage; we need our own.”
He said Washington should recognize shifting regional dynamics. “The law guaranteeing Israel a qualitative military edge worked when Arabs had no alternatives. But now we do. If America blocks sales, we’ll buy from China or Europe. It’s not a threat; it’s economics.”
Egyptian officials present a more measured public stance.
Mr. El Bendary said Mr. Trump’s Suez remarks were not considered the root cause of Egypt’s naval modernization, which began more than a decade ago. Still, he acknowledged that they have stirred anxieties. “Trump’s comments raised three concerns: economic risk if they become policy, a dangerous precedent for future demands, and a direct affront to national sovereignty,” he said. “They amplified a drive already underway.”
That drive is visible in Egypt’s leadership of Combined Task Force 153, a multinational maritime security mission in the Red Sea, and in a series of high-profile naval exercises with NATO partners. Mr. El Bendary said Egypt aims to secure trade corridors from the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to the Eastern Mediterranean.
Israel is also watching closely.
Israel’s Dolphin-class submarines have air-dependent propulsion systems and are rumored to have second-strike nuclear capabilities. Egypt’s new platforms would aim to close that gap. Although Israel’s submarines outclass Egypt’s current fleet, the Chinese Type 039A would represent a substantial upgrade.
Recent reporting confirms that Egypt is in final negotiations to acquire several Type 039A submarines from China. The deal reportedly includes technology transfer and local production rights. The move would further distance Egypt’s procurement posture from reliance on U.S. military aid and Western suppliers. China has been actively marketing the submarine in the region.
The regional submarine landscape is evolving worldwide.
Pakistan launched its second Hangor-class submarine, PNS/M Shushuk, at a March ceremony in Wuhan, China. This event was part of an eight-vessel agreement signed in 2015 between the Pakistani Defense Ministry and China.
Equipped with advanced stealth features and air-independent propulsion systems, the Hangor-class submarines are designed to bolster Pakistan’s deterrence capabilities in the Indian Ocean.
The development underscores a broader trend of regional powers enhancing their undersea warfare capabilities, potentially altering the strategic dynamics in the Middle East and South Asia.
Brent Sadler, a former U.S. Navy officer and senior fellow at The Heritage Foundation, said Mr. Trump’s remarks should not be underestimated.
“It may have resonated politically in the U.S., but in Egypt, it was received as a direct challenge to sovereignty,” he said. “Moves like this accelerate hedging behavior, driving longtime partners toward suppliers like China and Russia.”
Amira Oron, Israel’s former envoy to Cairo and now a senior fellow at Tel Aviv’s Institute for National Security Studies, said the concerns about Egypt’s military expansion are often exaggerated.
“Egypt’s military is modernizing, not mobilizing,” Ms. Oron told The Washington Times. “The narrative that Cairo is preparing for war is baseless and damaging. It’s fueled by speculation, some of it amplified by foreign actors.”
She said Egypt’s diversification in arms procurement began after the Arab Spring, when U.S. transfers stalled and Egypt started to buy from France and Germany. “Now it’s China. It’s about resilience,” she said.
Ms. Oron cited data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute showing that Egypt reduced arms imports by 20% in 2023 and 2024, even as it finalized deals for submarines, frigates and fighter jets. “There’s a logic here: If you’re serious about deterrence, you train, you upgrade and you partner. And that’s what Egypt’s been doing, including with NATO allies.”
Still, she acknowledged that Mr. Trump’s remarks inflamed nationalist sensitivities. “The Suez Canal and Sinai are red lines, paid for in blood.”
The Egyptian source close to procurement said the Chinese Type 039A is not just a symbolic purchase. With air-independent propulsion systems allowing extended submerged operations and anti-ship missiles that reach 125 miles, Egypt has new options.
He confirmed that Egypt is negotiating for co-production rights and local assembly. “The real value is in the tech transfer. If we can build this sub here, we can sell it elsewhere.”
However, operating a hybrid fleet brings its own complications. Mr. Sadler cautioned that using Chinese and Western military systems in the same navy risks compromising U.S. and allied capabilities.
“If a Chinese submarine is integrated with Western sensors or weapons, you create openings for intelligence breaches,” he said. “That’s a real concern.”
He warned that the U.S. may respond with limits on assistance. “If Egypt buys Chinese subs, you can expect U.S. military aid to be curtailed.”
Still, Mr. Sadler said Washington needs to adapt. He advocated for “reciprocity” and more precise articulation of U.S. interests to guide future defense partnerships. “Egypt is at a deciding point,” he said, “and while shared interests with the West are likely to keep it aligned, clear diplomacy and unambiguous statements of intent are required by Egypt as well.”
Although Egypt’s tilt toward China is a real possibility, he said, “this doesn’t consider the negative reaction of European powers and markets,” which could make such a shift less likely.
For now, Egypt is moving ahead. Cairo is preparing for naval drills after its first joint air exercises with China last year. The submarine in question may soon make a port call in Alexandria.
“They’ve been trying to sell us this sub for over a decade,” the Egyptian source said. “We didn’t want to upset the Americans. That era is over.”
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