OPINION:
A tenuous ceasefire between India and Pakistan, negotiated last week by the United States and the Group of Seven, was supposed to pause the deadly clashes that broke out last week.
The violence erupted after India accused Pakistan, without evidence, of being behind a deadly terrorist attack against Hindu tourists in the independently administered region of Kashmir.
India, ostensibly in response to the unsolved Kashmir attack, bombed Pakistani sites Wednesday and threatened “all-out war.” Pakistan retaliated. It’s a familiar, dangerous and, until this month, increasingly rare cycle of provocation and escalation between the two nuclear powers.
After a few days of indecision over U.S. engagement, President Trump announced a U.S.-led cessation of hostilities on Saturday. He deserves credit for his speed and resolve in defusing a potentially dramatic escalation. However, the ceasefire appears to be unraveling, with Pakistan sharing evidence that India violated the agreement before the ink was dry. This again raises the specter of a spiraling conflict that could soon be out of control.
To cement a ceasefire and stabilize the region, Mr. Trump can and should address the deep grievances between the two nations, both of which are U.S. allies, before they reach the point of no return. The task will not be easy, but it is necessary.
India-Pakistan animosity runs deep. It is rooted in the 1947 partition of India, which created two separate nations, one primarily Hindu and the other primarily Muslim. The unresolved issue of Kashmir — a Muslim-majority region with a mixed population and a contested border — has fueled ongoing tensions and conflicts, including four wars.
Mr. Trump can take the following steps:
• First and foremost, he should call for an independent investigation into the deadly attack in Kashmir that precipitated India’s aggression. He can offer U.S. assistance and the investigative resources of the FBI and the CIA to get to the bottom of the matter and bring the perpetrators to justice. Until then, India should not use it as a pretext for aggression.
• Second, Mr. Trump should personally reach out to the leaders of India and Pakistan to address the disputed status of Kashmir, including ways to tamp down the Hindu and Muslim separatist groups that have sown violence and discord in the region. New energy and ideas — not unlike the momentum Mr. Trump brought to achieving the historic Abraham Accords in the Middle East — could be a game changer that achieves lasting stability.
The United States and its G7 partners can help incentivize both countries to come to the table with military, trade and investment, technology transfer and other aid packages, including possibly freeing up frozen money from the U.S. Agency for International Development that has been committed to both nations.
• Third, the president can help India and Pakistan move beyond the toxic zero-sum-game politics that have plagued their relationship, in which one country sees disadvantage in the other’s success or, worse, sees the other’s failure as its success.
India and Pakistan need the United States, and the United States needs them. Mr. Trump should address each nation on its own terms and develop strong bilateral relationships.
India, for example, is a regional powerhouse and a powerful economic counterweight to China. The relationship with India serves U.S. interests in containing China’s excessive influence in South Asia. The U.S. is also India’s largest trading partner.
Pakistan is a major non-NATO ally and reliable security partner to the United States, having sacrificed hundreds of thousands of its soldiers and civilians in the U.S.-led war on terror. In March, in his first address to a joint session of Congress in his second term, Mr. Trump personally thanked Pakistan for capturing the Islamic State mastermind behind the 2021 terrorist attack that killed 13 U.S. servicemen at Kabul International Airport in Afghanistan. Afghanistan remains a dangerous place to America and the West — it is home to a resurgent al Qaeda and other terrorist groups — and we need Pakistan to tame it.
In addition to economic and military deals, Mr. Trump can recognize India’s and Pakistan’s contributions to U.S. interests and cement each nation’s special status by hosting official state dinners for their respective heads of state. The symbolism of such equal treatment would go a long way toward disrupting and breaking the winner-take-all dynamic.
• Finally, Mr. Trump can issue an executive order requiring a national security review of all lobbying activity on behalf of India and Pakistan. Both nations have large diasporas and well-funded special interest groups operating in the U.S. Their lobbyists are paid to advance their sponsors’ causes, which often come at the expense of the other nation.
There is now, for example, legislation before the House Foreign Affairs Committee that calls for the release of former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, an avowed antisemite who praised Osama bin Laden as a “martyr” and is imprisoned for treason. The bill is meant to destabilize Pakistan’s internal politics, plain and simple, which is a perilous prospect for regional security. The backers of such legislation should be known and called to account.
By stepping into the fray to help achieve a ceasefire, however tenuous, the United States is acknowledging the promise and the peril of the India-Pakistan dynamic. The region is critically important to U.S. economic and security interests. Even if the hostilities temporarily stop, only the U.S. has the power and the prestige to get these two nuclear powers to change their behavior and outlook, thereby reducing the long-term global risk of nuclear calamity.
• Christopher Shays is a former Republican member of the House of Representatives from Connecticut. He served as a senior member of the House budget, financial services, homeland security and government reform committees.
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