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OPINION:
President Trump is headed to the Middle East this week with a full plate and high expectations. He has already hinted of a “very, very big” announcement before departing, calling it “one of the most important announcements that have been made in many years about a certain subject.”
What that subject is we’ll have to wait and see, but I’m guessing it’s about the issue of Saudi-Israeli normalization. If it’s not, it should be. Mr. Trump wants to halt the fighting in the Gaza Strip, reach a hostage deal and, of course, sign major economic investment agreements with the wealthy Gulf Arab states. He also wants to discuss the issue of Iran’s nuclear program with his Saudi, Emirati and Qatari hosts to assure them that any new nuclear deal won’t ignore their security interests like what happened in 2015 when President Obama concluded the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which left Iran with the ability to build the bomb and sow chaos across the region through its militias.
But make no mistake about it: Mr. Trump’s top priority in the region is to expand the Abraham Accords.
A lot has changed in the Middle East since Mr. Trump’s first term, when he first sought a Saudi-Israeli normalization agreement. Indeed, the Middle East before Oct. 7, 2023, is vastly different from the one afterward. The good news is that many of those changes are for the better. Iran, the biggest spoiler of progress toward stability in the region, has taken a hard hit to its fortunes because its economy is in shambles and its proxies Hamas and Hezbollah are reeling from powerful blows by the Israeli military. Syria’s Assad regime is gone, too, and with it, Iran’s land bridge to the Arab heartland.
All this presents historic opportunities in several places, starting with Lebanon and Syria. Lebanon is the low-hanging fruit and holds the most promise. With Hezbollah significantly weakened after its latest war with Israel, it can no longer sustain corruption and exercise its veto power over decision-making in Beirut. Now there’s a reformist duo in charge of politics, with President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam pursuing unprecedented structural reforms in various sectors.
Syria is more uncertain, but the opportunity for a new beginning is there too. Its enigmatic de facto president, Ahmad al-Sharaa, a jihadist leader until Bashar Assad’s ouster in December, is saying all the right things about governance, but his radical and violent past still makes the Americans, the Europeans and the Arabs very nervous about full-fledged engagement. He also doesn’t control all of Syria, which makes any conversation about rebuilding even more complicated.
Washington will continue to monitor progress in Lebanon and Syria and look for ways to amplify U.S. engagement. Still, Mr. Trump should keep his eyes on the real prize during his visit, which is Saudi-Israeli normalization. If he puts that issue back on the agenda, he will be able, along with the Saudis and others, to facilitate physical reconstruction in Gaza and Lebanon and pursue economic development across the region. It’s the classic trickle-down effect. If Saudi Arabia normalizes with Israel and, in return, gets a formal defense pact from the United States, Lebanon and Syria will follow suit, thus killing Iran’s aspirations of rebuilding its regional militia network. First, Israel has to agree to a path toward a two-state solution, on which Riyadh insists.
This is where Mr. Trump will have to be creative and presidential. It’s obvious that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is tying his political survival to continuing the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, which serve nobody, not even his own country. Yet contrary to popular opinion, he is not the only obstacle to Mr. Trump’s vision of Middle East peace and prosperity. After the horrors of Hamas’ terrorist attack on Oct. 7, polls show that the majority of Israeli society is against a two-state solution.
That can change, of course, with the right kind of incentives. This will require focused U.S. diplomacy in coordination with the Arab states to provide security assurances to Israel. It may not happen with this far-right Israeli government, but Mr. Trump and the Arab states should address the Israeli people as a whole and show them the way forward beyond Mr. Netanyahu.
• Bilal Y. Saab is the senior managing director of TRENDS US, an associate fellow with Chatham House and an adjunct professor with Georgetown University.
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