Feeling lucky? Wizards hope for fortunate draw at Monday’s NBA draft lottery

The fate of the Washington Wizards and a handful of other NBA teams will be decided by ping pong balls on Monday night. The league’s lottery will determine the order of picks for next month’s draft.

The stakes are high as a top-heavy class is set to enter the league next season.

Duke phenom Cooper Flagg will likely be the crop’s crown jewel as the likely top pick. Rutgers stars Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey are expected to round out the top three, though analysts see a steep drop after those potential superstars.

Since the NBA changed its lottery odds in 2017, the three worst teams in the league have an identical 14% chance to land the top pick. 

The Utah Jazz, Wizards and Charlotte Hornets share that dubious honor this year.

Their abysmal seasons could yield immediate fruit for those rebuilding squads.

Flagg isn’t just the unanimous top player in the draft — he’s a generational prospect, according to analysts around the league. In the predraft process, evaluators have favorably compared the Duke forward to former Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard, Hall of Famer Scottie Pippen and Boston Celtics superstar Jayson Tatum.

“[Flagg]’s really good defensively and can be a game changer on that end pretty much immediately with his size, effort and IQ,” an unnamed NBA scout told ESPN last month. “He’s always been a very good defender and the offense is coming along. It’s a very similar path to the one Kawhi was on early in his NBA career.”

Flagg arrived at Duke with lofty expectations. The pride of Newport, Maine, practiced with Team USA as a member of the “Select Team” before the Paris Olympics. He immediately impressed.

Highlights of the swingman’s pull-up three-pointers, athletic dunks and turnaround jumpers went viral on social media.

“The thing that you can tell about him is that he just has a knack and the will to win,” Miami Heat forward Jaime Jaquez Jr. said after playing with Flagg on the select team. “He doesn’t need the ball. He just finds a way to it. And the ball finds its way to him. That’s something that you can’t teach.”

Flagg delivered as advertised at Duke. He carried the Blue Devils to the Final Four as a first-team All-American who racked up a collection of awards at the end of his freshman campaign.  

If Washington lands the top pick, Flagg would join a promising young core that includes center Alex Sarr — last year’s second overall pick — two-way star Bilal Coulibaly and point guard Bub Carrington.

The Wizards’ rebuild, which general manager Will Dawkins said is still in its early stages, would be accelerated.

“I’m not nervous; I wouldn’t say I’m nervous,” Carrington, who will represent the Wizards at Monday’s lottery, said on Instagram. “Oh, wait. No, I am super nervous, actually.”

Wizards fans around the region feel similarly.

A lucky draw and the future changes; next season would draw thousands of fans back to Capital One Arena for Flagg’s rookie campaign. For the first time in years, the Wizards could be a team to watch.

But the odds aren’t in their favor.

Washington has a 13.4% chance of picking second and a 12.7% chance of landing the third overall selection. Those slots would likely send Harper or Bailey to the District.

Harper, widely considered the second-best prospect in the class, could be a solid consolation prize for the Wizards. 

The 6-foot-6 guard possesses the positional size that has enticed Wizards general manager Will Dawkins in the past. He also combines the passing and scoring ability to slot into a variety of roles for coach Brian Keefe.

Bailey has a similar case at No. 3 overall. A lights-out shooter, the 6-foot-2 Bailey has the skills to make an immediate impact as a defender.

“These two kids are going to be All-Stars,” Rutgers coach Steve Pikiell told the Philadelphia Inquirer last week. “They’re that talented. They got the work ethic. They’re coachable.”

The potential for finding a future All-Star dims if the Wizards are unlucky. They have a 12% chance of picking fourth and a 27.8% chance of landing the fifth pick. There’s a 20% chance that Wizards fans will see the worst-case scenario — falling out of the top five with the sixth selection.

This year’s draft lacks a consensus after Bailey and Harper. A Washington team with plenty of holes could add Baylor guard V.J. Edgecombe or one of Flagg’s former teammates: guard Kon Knueppel or 7-foot-2-inch center Khaman Maluach.

Maryland’s Derik Queen offers a hometown angle for the Wizards. The Baltimore native became a household name after his buzzer-beater sent the Terrapins to the Sweet 16.

The lottery begins at 7 p.m. on Monday night. The draft itself is scheduled to begin on June 25.

This article is based in part on wire service reports.