CIA must gauge how Chinese military might use lessons it is learning from Ukraine war

OPINION:

In August 2002, I landed on the shores of Estonia in a rubber boat with a four-man Estonian Defense Forces-U.S. team to participate in the Erna long-range reconnaissance four-day military competition. Twenty-eight military teams worldwide moved stealthily through the dense Estonian forest from one checkpoint to another while avoiding capture by “enemy” counteraction forces. At checkpoints anywhere from 6 to 12 miles apart, we were evaluated on skills tests, including weapons handling, rappelling, crossing a minefield and delivering trauma first aid.

The competition commemorated Estonian guerrilla fighters who fought for the country’s independence after the Soviet Union invaded the Baltic states in 1939. They were the first contingent of Estonian Forest Brothers partisans, who fought the Red Army during and after World War II.

I’ll never forget enjoying a cold beer and some fresh peaches with my teammates while hunched over my rucksack at the finish line and talking at length with one of the original Estonian Erna partisans who had courageously fought for his country against overwhelming odds.

That year, two Chinese teams finished first and second. A couple of times in the woods, we crossed paths with the Chinese soldiers, who appeared to be elite special forces intent not just on winning but also gathering information about conducting partisan warfare in the Baltic states.

Last month, Ukraine produced evidence that Chinese soldiers had taken their military reconnaissance game up a notch by engaging in real warfare on European soil alongside their Russian allies. Speaking to the media, a captured Chinese soldier said he joined the fight to earn money after losing his job during the COVID-19 pandemic shutdowns. More than 100 Chinese citizens are reportedly fighting in Ukraine.

The Russians might have recruited Chinese mercenaries without China’s knowledge, or perhaps China deliberately dispatched some or all of them. With reportedly more than 10,000 North Koreans fighting in Ukraine, the war has become reminiscent of the Spanish Civil War, when Fascist Italy and Nazi Germany supported the Nationalists against the Republicans, who received assistance from the Soviet Union and International Brigades, including volunteers from Europe and the U.S.

China has outlandishly claimed neutrality in the war while providing diplomatic top cover to Russia. Extending Russia a commercial lifeline, China exports dual-use items supporting the Russian wartime economy and imports Russia’s hydrocarbons, albeit at reduced prices. On Feb. 4, 2022, Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted Russian ruler Vladimir Putin at the opening of the Olympic Games in Beijing. Afterward, they issued a joint statement announcing their “no-limits friendship.” A few weeks later, Russia invaded Ukraine. During a visit to Russia in March 2023, Mr. Xi received support from the Kremlin for his nonsensical claim that China is a “near Arctic state.”

With annual joint air and naval drills, Russia and China have ramped up their military collaboration. They are undoubtedly focused on collecting and sharing intelligence on their main adversary: the United States.

Beyond taking advantage of Russia’s relative weakness economically and strategically to gain a foothold and exploit Russia’s traditional Central Asian sphere of influence, China sees the war in Ukraine as a valuable opportunity to collect intelligence, which will help guide its strategic planning against Taiwan.

China clearly wants to learn as much as possible from Russia’s war on Ukraine, including how the U.S. and its allies support Ukraine’s brave warfighters with intelligence and military equipment; Ukraine’s use of drones to support military operations and conduct reconnaissance and kinetic strikes; and Ukrainian defensive tactics, particularly in the Black Sea, where, without a navy, Ukraine has shut down Russian maritime operations.

Collecting information on China’s plans and intentions toward Taiwan is a high-priority requirement for the U.S. intelligence community. China’s tactical interest in Ukraine offers an advantageous window to gauge the lessons Beijing is learning and, for the CIA in particular, based on reports from human sources, how the Chinese military might translate those lessons into practice.

For the Trump administration, the presence of Chinese and North Korean troops fighting alongside Russian soldiers with Iranian drones in the air striking Ukrainian civilian and infrastructure targets, there is an auspicious opportunity to drive a wedge between Russia and its axis of dictatorship allies by ensuring Mr. Putin gains no lasting military or economic advantage from his barbaric war on Ukraine.

• Daniel N. Hoffman is a retired clandestine services officer and former chief of station with the Central Intelligence Agency. His combined 30 years of government service included high-level overseas and domestic positions at the CIA. He has been a Fox News contributor since May 2018. He can be reached at danielhoffman@yahoo.com.