OPINION:
Even before taking office, President Trump was clear that the Russia-Ukraine war needed to end. Too much killing, too much of a distraction, and America is unable to focus on other things, such as China.
Wars are easier to start than to end, and negotiations are tough.
Even more so when the media, pundits and opponents are primed to jump on any apparent missteps.
The hair-on-fire reactions to normal difficulties in complex negotiations from a new team getting up to speed and the obligatory claims from some quarters that Mr. Trump is selling out to Russian President Vladimir Putin are overwrought.
It’s a bit like airplane passengers screaming and pounding on the cockpit door every time a plane hits a little turbulence on a long flight. Sometimes, it’s best to tighten your seat belt and go back to watching the movie. It’s the landing that matters.
Mr. Trump is the “man in the ring” trying to clean up the god-awful mess in Ukraine that started under President Obama and got much worse with President Biden in the White House.
More than 1 million people on both sides have been killed or wounded.
Mr. Trump’s enemies presumably are glad to have another million (as long as it’s not them).
Let’s see what Mr. Trump can do.
Trump’s negotiation track record
Mr. Trump’s track record from his first term is mixed.
The Abraham Accords between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain (for starters) were stunning accomplishments. Also notable were the wars that didn’t happen, including a Russian invasion of Ukraine or an Oct. 7-style attack in Israel.
On the other hand, Mr. Trump had Chinese electronics companies ZTE and Huawei on the ropes and Beijing squirming. Instead, the administration cut deals that let them wriggle free.
The negotiations with the Taliban over Afghanistan? Putting Zalmay Khalilzad in charge pretty much guaranteed things would not go well, sort of like appointing Gen. Mark Milley as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. However, that was a different administration, and Mr. Trump was being undermined on every front.
So we’ll wait and see about Ukraine.
If a deal is cut, it must be enforced — something America seldom does.
What about Xi Jinping?
Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping is no doubt watching closely.
One worries that, given what’s happened in Ukraine to date, he sees no reason to think he couldn’t get away with taking Taiwan.
If Mr. Putin looks like he comes out ahead after a deal is reached, Mr. Xi may see a bright green light — for Taiwan, of course, but also for the Philippines, Japan, Australia and elsewhere.
Ideally, the Russia-Ukraine war will end with the appearance that Mr. Putin lost as clearly as the U.S. did upon withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Pulling that off, however, makes the Abraham Accords look easy.
Refocusing on Asia? Really?
Mr. Trump and his team say that finishing up Ukraine will allow them to focus on the Asia-Pacific region, particularly China.
If so, they’d better actually do it.
Americans have been talking about this for years.
Recall Mr. Obama’s Asia pivot in 2013?
That was smoke and mirrors.
U.S. military power in the Pacific didn’t noticeably increase. Nor did Washington deter the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s transformation into a powerful force able to throw its weight around the region.
In fact, “deescalate” was the Obama administration’s standard policy choice for China.
Mr. Trump’s team that took over in 2017 was the first to view the PRC as the enemy Beijing says it is, not just a competitor.
Trump v.1 did a lot, but it had only a short time to focus before being removed from office.
The successor Biden administration appeased Beijing far more often than not, talking about “intensive diplomacy” and “integrated deterrence” as their Asia strategy.
Intensive diplomacy? That means talking your enemy’s ear off hoping to persuade him to behave.
Integrated deterrence? Having your allies and partners make up the difference since you can’t be bothered to rebuild your own military or otherwise getting your house in order.
Unfortunately, our Asian allies and partners (just like our European friends) still aren’t up to the task, though some, like the Philippines, are doing their best with what they have.
The Trump administration will have its work cut out for it, and if America does shift focus, Taiwan had better be part of the equation.
There are some good signs already, not least the State Department’s removal of “no support for Taiwan independence” from its website, the greenlighting of arms sales and the announcement of serious economic moves against Beijing.
But people close to or inside the administration have also said, “Taiwan isn’t worth it.” They claim it can’t be defended, or if we fought and lost, we would be so humiliated that we would be finished as a global power.
This gives “risk aversion” a bad name.
Getting the right deal in Ukraine and properly focusing on China are among the biggest strategic challenges the United States will face in the first quarter of this century. It can be done, but it won’t be easy or pretty. Buckle up.
• Grant Newsham is a retired U.S. Marine officer and a senior research fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute.
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