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JOHANNESBURG — Ukraine, Canada and Panama may be the early front-runners in the sweepstakes for the country whose relationship with the United States has been most disrupted since Donald Trump returned to the White House, but don’t sleep on South Africa.
In a twist that few expected, Pretoria’s relations with the Trump administration have plummeted in the past seven weeks. Several close advisers to the American president, including Elon Musk, have roots or deep ties to South Africa.
The weekend expulsion of Pretoria’s ambassador to Washington was the latest and most dramatic sign of soured relations despite South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s desire to reestablish a bond with the White House.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared South African Ambassador Ebrahim Rasool persona non grata after the envoy appeared to link Mr. Trump and MAGA to “White supremacist” movements.
Mr. Rasool, who also served as ambassador during the Obama administration, was ordered to leave the United States by Friday. Mr. Rubio accused him of “race-baiting” and said he was “no longer welcome in our great country.”
Mr. Rasool said in a recent online seminar hosted by a South African think tank that the MAGA movement grew partially out of worries about demographic change and a future with White Americans no longer in the majority.
Mr. Ramaphosa described the rift as “regrettable” and insisted that discussions be maintained in “diplomatic language,” a public criticism of Mr. Rasool’s comments. He said building ties with Washington was a priority for his government.
This was the first time a head of mission had been expelled from bilateral diplomatic relations since 1799, when John Adams’ administration opened a consulate in Cape Town.
Many in South Africa say relations between Pretoria and Washington have reached their lowest point since anti-apartheid icon Nelson Mandela ushered in the first democratic government in 1994. Foreign and domestic factors seem to be straining bilateral ties near a breaking point.
South Africa, as this year’s head of the Group of 20 developed and developing nations, laid out an agenda almost tailored to clash with Mr. Trump’s “America First” policies and his Make America Great Again political base. Its program focuses on fighting climate change, addressing the gap between richer and poorer countries, and celebrating “equality” and “sustainability.”
Mr. Rubio and Treasury Secretary Steve Bessent pointedly skipped summits of G20 ministers hosted by South Africa.
The Ramaphosa government has taken a leading role in the international legal campaign against Israel, America’s key ally in the Middle East, over its military campaign against the Palestinian Hamas militant group. In the final days of the Biden administration, South Africa was heading the charge for an official finding of genocide against the Israeli government over its actions in the Gaza Strip.
A new South African law that allows the government to take land without payment in specific instances where it is not being used or where distribution would be in the “public interest” has particularly rankled Mr. Trump. Although the statute does not mention race or skin color, critics in South Africa and the U.S. say the law in practice will mean taking property owned by mostly minority White landowners and giving it to Black citizens.
A coalition government resulting from last spring’s elections was expected to drop the proposal. Instead, Mr. Ramaphosa signed it into law.
Mr. Trump framed the law as a means of taking land from White farmers, who grow the majority of the country’s food.
In a Feb. 7 executive order, Mr. Trump decreed that the U.S. would halt all aid to South Africa until the law was scrapped. He said Pretoria was discriminating against the White minority and South Africans targeted under the law would have easier access to residency in the U.S.
“As long as South Africa continues to support bad actors on the world stage and allows violent attacks on innocent disfavored minority farmers, the United States will stop aid and assistance to the country,” the White House said in a summary of the order.
Much of the American aid was directed at fighting climate change and financing the provision of drugs to those infected with HIV.
Thus far, no land has been taken except where owners have been willing to sell at market rates. World Bank figures show that close to 70% of South Africans are urban and rely on supermarkets for their groceries. Corn, wheat and livestock are produced on vast estates, principally controlled by White farmers, with an economy of scale that keeps prices within reach of the Black majority, many of whom live in crowded shacks around the cities.
Business at stake
The risks of a break with Washington are high for South Africa, the continent’s largest economy and traditionally a political and diplomatic leader.
The United States is South Africa’s second-largest export market, just behind China, with two-way trade topping $20 billion annually. McDonald’s and KFC have outlets across the country, and American retail giant Walmart owns a chain of stores. Mr. Ramaphosa was a McDonald’s franchise owner in South Africa before becoming president.
The Africa Growth and Opportunity Act, implemented by President George W. Bush, allows African countries to access the U.S. duty-free for various goods. It is due to expire in September. South Africans fear that Pretoria may be dropped from the treaty.
Friction in U.S.-South African relations predates Mr. Trump’s return to the White House. The ANC has a close relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin and has repeatedly abstained on motions at the United Nations condemning the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine, much to the frustration of the Biden administration.
Voices inside South Africa blame the government for much of the deterioration in ties with Washington.
Emma Powell leads the team on foreign policy for the Democratic Alliance, the nation’s second-largest party after the ANC and now part of the power-sharing government. After returning from the U.S., where she met with members of Congress and the committees concerned with Africa, she has voiced concerns about Pretoria’s global stance.
She told The Washington Times about a need to “ensure our policies are not in contravention of U.S. national security interests if we want to enjoy continued access to the AGOA treaty on trade. Instead, our bilateral actions should be geared towards economic growth and the creation of jobs in South Africa.”
Ms. Powell said her party favored a “nonaligned foreign policy and an end to fraternizing with the enemies of peace and democracy.”
Cultivating ties with Iran, she said, was an example of the South African government’s misplaced priorities, angering the U.S. to curry favor with “a theocratic dictatorship with which South Africa has annual trade of less than $16 million.”
A charge d’affaires will head the embassy in Washington while Mr. Ramaphosa either appoints a new ambassador or pleads for a second chance, allowing Mr. Rasool to stay as envoy.
With cash reserves running low, his priority will be to steer his annual budget through a hostile Parliament, where other parties, including the DA, have blocked it over a proposed rise in sales tax. DA party leaders say the ANC has not come to terms with losing its historic majority and no longer setting the agenda.
In Washington, the State Department confirmed Monday that Mr. Rasool must leave the country by Friday.
Mr. Ramaphosa made another plea to cool the rancor. “South Africa remains committed to building a mutually beneficial relationship with the United States of America,” a statement from the South African president’s office read.
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