Trump, Hegseth claim credit to recruiting success, but the cause is contested

The Pentagon is fighting one of the first wars of the Trump administration: a clash with the Biden administration over who deserves credit for a turnaround in military recruiting after a long period of decline.

The stakes may seem small, but they play into the leadership’s narrative that an embrace of what Secretary Pete Hegseth has called a “warrior ethos” will reverse some negative trends in the ranks, including a misguided swerve to emphasizing diversity and equality that, they say, drove away large numbers of potential recruits.

President Trump has cited rising military enlistment figures at the start of his administration as proof that the Pentagon’s abysmal recruiting efforts are in the past thanks to his “America First” agenda.

In his March 4 address to a joint session of Congress, Mr. Trump said changes he has ordered at the Defense Department, including slashing diversity training and other woke social justice programs, have enhanced enlistment in ways not seen in years.

“I’m pleased to report that in January, the U.S. Army had its single best recruiting month in 15 years and that all armed services are having among the best recruiting results ever in the history of our country,” he said. “What a tremendous turnaround. They love our country, and they love being in our military again.”

Analysts and some members of the Biden administration argue that Mr. Trump’s account skates over several uncomfortable facts, including that the Army was on track to hit its 2025 enlistment mark before Mr. Trump’s November victory over Vice President Kamala Harris.

Days before Mr. Trump took office, Army Secretary Christine Wormuth said the service was on pace for 61,000 recruits by the end of the 2025 fiscal year, the second straight year the Army exceeded its goal.

“What’s really remarkable is that the first quarter contracts that we have signed are the highest rate in the last 10 years. We are going like gangbusters, which is terrific,” Ms. Wormuth told The Associated Press.

The numbers rebounded just in time. After decades of plunging public confidence in the military, public opinion polls showed approval rates of 70% or higher.

“In 2022 and 2023, the Army missed its recruitment goal by nearly 25% — about fifteen thousand troops a year,” the New Yorker said in a survey of the recruitment crisis this year. “It hit the mark last year, but only by reducing the target by more than ten thousand. The Navy has also fared badly: it failed to reach its goals in 2023, then met them in 2024 by filling out the ranks with recruits of a lower standard.”

The Army Reserve, the article said, failed to reach its benchmark recruiting goal in nearly a decade, “and the ranks are so depleted that active-duty officers have been put in charge of reserve units.”

The military faced recruiting challenges for about a decade as U.S. involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan began winding down. The armed forces also have had to compete with the private sector, which has a jobless rate in the low single digits and can often offer employment with similar, if not better, pay and benefits.

Furthermore, only about a quarter of young adults are physically or mentally qualified to serve without a waiver.

Meanwhile, the COVID-19 pandemic shuttered military recruiting stations and in-person recruiting at schools, which the military has long relied upon to recruit fresh troops.

Waiting for the data

Scholars of U.S. recruiting trends say it’s too soon to tell who has the better argument.

“We just don’t have the data on whether the people who are joining right now are joining because of the policy changes surrounding the new administration,” said Taren Sylvester, who studies military recruiting at the Center for a New American Security think tank in Washington. “But it’s a trend we’ve been seeing over the last couple of years: swinging back towards a more positive recruiting environment.”

Some new personnel numbers may result from troops who signed up under delayed entry programs. These programs allow recruits to lock in benefits, such as a choice of duty assignment, before they formally enlist.

Mr. Hegseth, a former Army infantry officer who fought in Iraq and Afghanistan, said young men and women now want to join the military because they reject the “diversity, equity, and inclusion” philosophy of the past administration and embrace the traditional military mission of fighting wars and defending the homeland.

“I think we’ve seen enthusiasm and excitement from young men and women who want to join the military because they are interested in being part of the finest fighting force the world has to offer and not doing a lot of other things that serve oftentimes too often to divide or distract,” Mr. Hegseth said during a town hall meeting at the Pentagon soon after taking charge.

In the face of repeated shortfalls, the nation’s military services are also looking at new ways to attract recruits.

The Defense Department’s willingness to update its recruiting structure to meet trends could bear fruit. The Army has created a specific military recruiting career field rather than drafting infantry or tank soldiers. Ms. Sylvester said the Air Force has opened nearly 300 billets for military recruiting.

“They are able to build the skills that make recruiters better at their jobs, which then impacts recruitment on the other end,” she said.

It will take three to five years for analysts to have sufficient information to conclude whether the latest positive trends in military recruiting will have a long-term impact, Ms. Sylvester said.

“But the numbers are definitely better than what we saw in 2024, which is way better than we saw in 2023 and 2022,” she said. “A lot of the credit should go to the people who are out on the streets doing the recruiting and trying to really connect with young Americans today.”