Tensions in Seoul, Tokyo over Trump tariffs add urgency to upcoming G7 summit in Canada

SEOUL, South Korea — The Trump administration’s tariffs on Japanese and South Korean goods have ratcheted up the stakes for the two U.S. allies at the Group of Seven summit next week in Canada.

President Trump is widely expected to join his counterparts from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Britain and the European Union, alongside leaders from Australia, South Korea, India and Ukraine, in Kananaskis, Alberta, for three days starting Sunday.

The gathering represents an opportunity for representatives of the world’s largest economies to negotiate face-to-face with Mr. Trump over the sweeping tariffs he announced on April 2.

Whether the tariffs represent actual policy or are simply an aggressive negotiating stance on trade remains unclear. 

Tariffs of up to 26% are due to be implemented against Japan and South Korea by July 8, but Mr. Trump has shown some deadline flexibility toward China and the EU.

Leaders in Seoul and Tokyo oversee two of the world’s largest manufacturing economies, which have long histories of trade surpluses with the U.S. and security alliances with Washington. They have been stunned by the Trump administration’s hardball style.

Crisis for leaders old and new

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Mr. Trump are familiar with each other. Mr. Ishiba, leading a fragile government in the Diet, took a major political risk and pushed for a bilateral meeting in February.

He was rewarded. A beaming Mr. Trump offered him an upbeat welcome at the White House. The two agreed on multiple issues, including energy and Indo-Pacific security.

The positive sentiment played well in Japan but preceded Mr. Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement.

In a series of statements at odds with the customarily reticent tone toward its leading ally, Japan has publicly demanded that the tariffs be removed.

Japanese media widely expect Mr. Ishiba to meet with Mr. Trump on the G7 sidelines. Information on the progress, if any, in Tokyo-Washington negotiations has dried up, generating taut nerves in high places.

On Sunday, the head of the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party, Yoshihiko Noda, asked Mr. Ishiba to brief other party leaders.

“We need cooperation because this is a national crisis,” he told reporters.

Sitting alongside Mr. Noda, Yuichiro Tamaki, who heads the center-right Democratic Party for the People, which holds the fourth-largest number of seats in the lower house, made an identical request.

“It’s impossible to tell from the outside if negotiations are proceeding or not,” said Mr. Tamaki, requesting “minimum disclosure and sharing of information.”

Mr. Ishiba held an information-sharing meeting with the heads of six major parties in April but has not followed up since.

In neighboring South Korea, newly elected Lee Jae-myung must make up for time lost.

From Dec. 3, when President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law, and June 3, when Mr. Lee won the presidential election after Mr. Yoon’s impeachment, Washington had nobody in Seoul with a strong negotiating mandate.

It does now. Mr. Lee, who was comfortably elected, wasted no time holding his first call with Mr. Trump on Friday.

In addition to feel-good messages on the bilateral alliance, the two agreed to work toward a mutually satisfactory tariff agreement “as soon as possible,” to encourage “tangible progress in working level negotiations” — and, per Korean media, to play a round of golf.

The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative and the American Chamber of Commerce in Korea have said that U.S. firms in South Korea face nontariff barriers. AMCHAM Korea, which has met with Mr. Lee, deployed a delegation to Washington on Monday.

“With South Korea’s new administration just taking office, this is a unique window of opportunity to help shape the next phase of bilateral economic cooperation,” said AMCHAM Chairman and CEO James Kim, who had met with Mr. Lee.

Also Monday, Mr. Lee spoke with Mr. Ishiba by phone. The two leaders agreed to continue trilateral cooperation with the United States.

The calls to Washington and Japan may reassure those who feared Mr. Lee might prioritize relations with Beijing.

Mr. Lee announced Saturday that he would attend the G7.

It’s a big step. A mayor and a provincial governor before entering national politics, Mr. Lee lacks overseas experience.

Trump’s domestic hurdles

While Seoul and Tokyo ponder their moves ahead of the July deadline, considerable flak surrounds tariffs on the U.S. homefront.

As the feud between Mr. Trump and tech billionaire Elon Musk exploded in multiple directions, one of Mr. Musk’s central digs focused on tariffs.

“The Trump tariffs will cause a recession in the second half of this year,” Mr. Musk wrote on his platform, X, last week.

Even right-leaning economists are frowning.

Wayne Winegarden, senior fellow of Business and Economics at the free market Pacific Research Institute, critiqued one of Mr. Trump’s central concerns: the trade surpluses of East Asian industrialized democracies.

“The notion that the trade surpluses/deficits are a problem is off base,” he said. “People living in Taiwan, South Korea and Japan want to invest in the U.S. economy: To do so, they need U.S. dollars, and the way to obtain U.S. dollars is to sell more goods to the U.S. than we sell to them.”

Seen through that prism, “investment helps drive innovation and keeps the cost of financing debt in this country lower than otherwise,” he added.

If fully applied, tariffs will damage U.S. consumers more than Asian exporters, he insisted.

Noting that Japan exported about $150 billion to the U.S. last year, a 24% tariff rate would increase product costs by $36 billion.

“That means Japanese manufacturers will sell slightly fewer products to the U.S.,” he said. “However, the impact on the U.S. economy will be even larger as consumers will spend significantly more on fewer imports from Japan.”